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After many days, it has been updated again. It's not really being lazy. According to the planned market trend, I have been managing the position honestly. I don't have the mood to update every day to see the rise and fall. The more I do, the more mistakes I make. It's better to focus on the direction, hold the position, and leave the rest to fate.
The long-awaited final target of 53500 was achieved last Friday. From the evening of last month's CPI data when it dropped from 69000 all the way down, regardless of the continuous 68500, 67700, 66700 given in the Huobi live broadcast room, when the market reached 53500, all the pressure was worth it, including the mockery and abuse in the private messages. At this moment, it feels like the best proof for me, making the haters unable to deny my abilities.
Initially, you didn't believe that 69000 could drop to 53000. How many people have actually received the windfall of 16000 points? Everyone will only regret, slap themselves, and say they regret not doing it earlier, and then hope that the "Coin Victory Team" will update the article and definitely go all in, definitely seize the opportunity. However, in the next windfall, I don't know how many people can get it.
Well, let's not say much. Today's updated article is of course to discuss important matters with everyone. First, refute several market arguments and misleading statements.
- The "Coin Victory Team" short target of 53500 has been reached. Is it time to start bottom fishing?
Personal opinion: This belongs to the end of the second phase of the decline, but it does not mean it's time to bottom fish. There is still a third phase of decline, which is the final decline. The third decline has a longer period of hovering adjustment, and the energy after the outbreak is greater. It is reasonable to fall to the range of 48000-43000, and in extreme cases, break through 40000 directly to around 32000. So, the bottom fishing point and time have not been reached.
- Biden may withdraw from the election, and Trump is highly likely to win the election. Will this be beneficial for the cryptocurrency market?
Personal opinion: Pinning the rise of the bull market on Trump winning the election, and promoting this kind of argument, is either ignorant or malicious. They don't understand Trump, nor do they understand the political rules of the United States. First, you need to understand Trump's governing philosophy. He belongs to extreme populism, different from the Democratic Party establishment. The difference between them can be summarized as the former only wants to govern the country, while the latter wants to govern the world. Trump seeks to bring back manufacturing, essentially suppressing the financial industry and strengthening the real economy in the United States. The Democratic Party, on the other hand, seeks to consolidate America's global influence, continuing to use the Fed's interest rate cycle to harvest the world, and using financial tools to make easy money.
Secondly, the political rules of the United States involve fighting but not harming the family. This is a political understanding and balance that the two parties have maintained for 200 years. However, this balance has been broken by the Democratic Party. Previously, in order to prevent Trump from being re-elected, they fabricated the RussiaGate scandal, and even tried to convict Trump using the federal court. This is already using all means necessary. Do you expect Trump not to seek revenge after taking office? Do you not understand his vengeful character? Now, Biden's son has also been accused of receiving huge bribes and engaging in improper transactions with technology companies in Silicon Valley. In other words, even if Biden wants to avoid being held accountable, he cannot simply withdraw. This is not just about maintaining the competitiveness of the Democratic Party, but also about his own life and wealth. Therefore, we can deduce a course of action for the market based on the news. Biden's team clarifies the withdrawal rumors - Bitcoin experiences another accelerated decline - the Fed cuts interest rates in September - the cryptocurrency market sees a retaliatory rally - the cryptocurrency market enters a bottoming phase on the eve of the election. There is a caveat here: if there is no interest rate cut in September, and Trump is elected, the Fed will definitely cut interest rates.
- The German government is selling Bitcoin, and Mentougou is entering the compensation stage. Will this cause the cryptocurrency market to enter a bear market for the second time?
Personal opinion: This is needless worry. We are currently in the preparatory stage before the bull market, and there is no bear market at all. The tens of thousands of Bitcoins in the hands of Germany do not have the power to change the cryptocurrency market. It's just market speculation. The same goes for Mentougou. Not to mention that Mentougou's time is a routine for speculation every year. Moreover, a considerable proportion of Mentougou's compensation is based on the price of the year of the loss. How much value can this be? Don't think too much about it. Don't believe this kind of news; it doesn't affect the market.
Seeing this, we can further determine the basic trend of the subsequent market and the feasibility of bottom fishing. First, it is certain that the current decline cycle has not ended. Before the bull market starts, the cryptocurrency market will experience one last panic-driven decline, which will inevitably be accompanied by stories and short-term terrifying waterfall declines. There are only two possible stories here: one is that the Fed clearly does not raise interest rates in September, and the other is that the Biden team clarifies the withdrawal rumors. We just need to wait for the waterfall to appear. From a technical perspective, the 53000-50000 range is a very strong support area. This area is not only a technical formation, but also a bullish outbreak caused by the formation of a box-shaped absorption breakthrough during the early rise this year. More importantly, in terms of timing, many people seem to have forgotten the atmosphere of the bull market that was created earlier this year. The most crucial factor was based on the approval of the Bitcoin ETF. After the Bitcoin ETF was approved in January, Bitcoin's market was in a week-long oscillation in the 53000-50000 range, followed by a breakthrough and a unilateral rise. The "Coin Victory Team" has every reason to believe that this area is the cost price at which retail investors in the US stock market entered the market after the Bitcoin ETF was approved. Now we need to consider that the high-level large cycle box patterns formed in March, April, May, and June were all concentrated in the 60000-70000 range. If this year is an early entry into the bull market, we wouldn't even see prices below 60000, and the necessary adjustments would have been made long ago. So the reality shows that the high-level large box patterns formed in the past few months were just a comfort zone created by the main players, allowing everyone to get used to the 60000-70000 range. Coupled with the hype of the bull market atmosphere, it made everyone expect to break through and reach a new historical high at any time. In this process, it also made everyone in the market accept the habitual thinking that a 10,000-point pullback is a bottom-fishing opportunity.
So the purpose of the current decline is obviously to shake out the high-level spot positions. After shaking out the high-level spot positions, should the retail investors in the US stock market be harvested, meaning, should this batch of newbies who entered the market through the ETF be shaken out together? Or should these people be allowed to run ahead of the old hands and directly board the bull market bandwagon? I absolutely do not believe that this batch of people will not be shaken out. As for why 53000 encountered a strong rebound last Friday, directly pulling up to 58000? The reason is simple: it needs to be differentiated and disintegrated. Because the 53000-50000 range is too important, this is the last line of defense for the spot holders. Once broken, the vast majority of retail investors in the market will start from scratch. It is very normal to encounter strong resistance. The main players will not want to break through in one go. This requires facing the united resistance of everyone, with the risk of losing what they already have. Instead of doing this, it is better to form a box-shaped oscillation above 53000-50000, step by step, to disintegrate the determination of the bulls, especially the rebound to 58000, which not only temporarily relaxes the vigilance of the bulls, but also entices people to add to their positions early, creating a more favorable environment for the subsequent decline.
Summary: The range of 53000-50000 will not be touched for the time being. Instead, a box will be formed, and this box oscillation period will not be short. After the market has experienced sufficient turnover between long and short positions, it will sequentially break through 53000 and 50000, then trigger the final accelerated decline. After this decline, we will enter the bottoming phase before the bull market takes off, which is the long-awaited bottom fishing phase for us. I have never been a bear, the "Coin Victory Team" is just waiting for the bottom fishing process, and taking advantage of the trend to short. For me, I still firmly believe that Bitcoin will soar in the upcoming bull market, aiming for 150,000. In the short term, as long as the market approaches 53000, for example, 53500, you can go long, and if it falls below 53000, just run directly. Always rely on 53500 for long positions, taking profit every time it goes up by 2000 points, until it breaks below 53000 and stop loss. In the long term, for now, consider 58500 as a false breakthrough, and the real box is concentrated in the range of 53000-56000. For the third round of shorting, choose two positions:
Position 1: Short near 56000, stop loss at 56500, if it falls below 53000, directly target 48000-45000. This week, you can consider reducing positions at 53500.
Position 2: Short near 58000, stop loss at 58500, if it falls below 53000, directly target 48000-45000. This week, you can consider reducing positions at 53500.
In the CPI in June, I clearly pointed out in the article that Bitcoin is definitely starting to decline, with the first stage at 58000, followed by 53000. In the CPI in May, I clearly pointed out in the article that the target for the reversal of Bitcoin's decline is 53000, and predicted that the US stock market will continue to reach new highs, the US dollar will forcibly rise, and hot money will not flow into the cryptocurrency market. Looking back now, who was right and who was wrong, it's all self-evident.
I am the "Coin Victory Team". I may not have much, but I do my best to create a different small circle, adding a bit more fun to this cruel market. The small circle provides two trades for everyone to operate every day, and shares practical knowledge in the live broadcast every night at 8:30 PM.
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