Interpretation of Macroeconomic Data:
① The United States will release non-farm payroll data at 8:30 PM tonight. The previous value was an increase of 272,000 people, and the forecasted value is an increase of 190,000 people. If it is lower than the forecasted value, it will be bearish for the US dollar and bullish for BTC. If it is higher than the forecasted value, it will be bullish for the US dollar and bearish for BTC.
② Overall, the total number of new jobs added in 2024 is 1.24 million, which is about 50,000 fewer than the same period last year. The ADP data from Wednesday also indicates a slowdown in the US labor market and signs of economic weakness. Therefore, this non-farm payroll report is particularly important. These are also important data for the future assessment of interest rates by the Federal Reserve, so we should pay more attention to it.
Data Analysis:
Mt. Gox Compensation Begins, Leading to a Breakthrough and Decline in BTC.
① This morning, Mt. Gox transferred 47,200 BTC from a cold wallet to 2 addresses, worth about $2.7 billion, which is expected to be paid to relevant creditors and claim funds. The market was also affected by potential selling pressure, leading to a sharp decline, falling to below $53,500 at one point.
② The above transfer is only a part of the 140,000 BTC held by Mt. Gox. We may continue to see similar transfers in the future, so market panic may continue to ferment. However, based on historical patterns, if the market gradually digests this, the downward space will gradually decrease.
③ Some of these Mt. Gox BTC, having gone through a decade of restricted circulation, may continue to be held for the long term even after being compensated to creditors, rather than being sold immediately. Of course, some of the sold portion may directly impact the decline in the coin price.
④ In addition to the Mt. Gox bearish factor, the recent decline is also attributed to the German government's sale of nearly 10,000 BTC. Currently, Germany still holds over 40,000 BTC. The US government has also been conducting BTC transfers recently and currently holds about 213,000 BTC. The trading volume of spot Bitcoin ETFs has shrunk in the near term, and activity has significantly decreased compared to the previous period.
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