On the afternoon of July 4th, AICoin researchers conducted a live graphic and text sharing session titled "How to Break the Game of L2? (Free Membership)" in the AICoin PC-end Group Chat Live. Here is a summary of the live content.
I. Current Situation of Ethereum's L2
- Despite the significant decline in BTC and ETH, L2 has suffered even more since March. The price trends of STRK, ZK, TAIKO, and BLAST, all L2 projects launched around 24 years ago, have been generally poor.
Currently, there are 59 L2 projects. The image below shows data from L2Beat. While the upgrade of KanKun has reduced fees, the prices of most tokens have plummeted. Several newly launched L2 projects with large market capitalization, extensive financing, long construction periods, and high costs have faced liquidity issues.
However, there has been an excessive number of recent L2 launches, leading to criticism from normal users who are being airdropped rewards. Project teams engaging in witch hunts, opaque airdrop rules, insider trading, and token distribution have left ecosystem projects dissatisfied. ZK is a typical example of this behavior.
Several L2 projects have continued to list tokens during periods of poor market liquidity, effectively draining resources.
Post-token launch, ecosystem returns have also declined, leading to user and TVL attrition, making the outlook for L2 projects grim.
Projects like ARB and OP had good fundamentals in the previous cycle, but their performance has been poor since March. Most of the altcoin market has been no different from the bear market.
STRK, an early project, has been experiencing continuous TVL outflows. The current market outlook still depends on news about ETH ETF, with few positive price catalysts.
II. The Best L2 Project Currently is BASE
- The focus is on Base.
Base is currently one of the best L2 projects in terms of fundamentals and is the only Ethereum L2 project that can compete with Solana in the dog market.
In the current dog market, Solana stands out as a leading public chain, accounting for approximately 50% of daily transaction volume across all public chains. While many consider dog coins to be worthless, meme coin prices have performed relatively well this year, as seen with WIF.
Base initially stated that it would not launch a token, but later slightly changed its stance. However, Base itself is a collaboration between Coinbase and OP, with sufficient funding. Additionally, excellent projects are willing to invest in Base, such as the previously popular FriendTech and Farcaster.
- Base is currently one of the most closely watched L2 projects in both the Chinese and English communities.
III. What Should We Focus on in L2?
- What kind of L2 projects can thrive in a bear market?
Among public chains, the most hyped are Solana and TON. Solana has managed to escape the crisis from FTX and has consistently expanded its ecosystem, making it one of the best-performing public chains since the beginning of the year.
TON has also been heavily hyped, and the game NOT has raised expectations for TON due to its high association with Telegram, which has nearly 1 billion users. Even a slight conversion from Telegram could surpass the majority of current public chain projects.
- Are there any L2 projects attempting to break through and attract more users?
For ordinary crypto users, the issue is about returns. People are willing to participate because of predictable returns and lower risks. However, the current situation is not friendly to users participating in activities. Although gas fees are already very low and interaction costs are minimal, the delayed token launches and various point systems, odysseys, and activities initiated by project parties are not conducive to user participation.
Developers have attempted to incentivize GitHub contributors during starknet's airdrop, but the effect has been mediocre.
Another focus is on excellent projects on L2, which revolves around three aspects: more liquidity, lower user thresholds, and greater value growth. Currently, more attention is being paid to the launchpad of dog coins for liquidity.
- Latest News Sharing
(1) Sector Coin News
Pumpfun has recently gained attention. It is worth exploring innovative AMM mechanisms to provide more liquidity to the market. Additionally, there are some SOFI protocols, such as Farcaster. Monad is not very clear, and it can be discussed next time. Another area of innovation is in L2, providing more convenience for users from an infrastructure perspective.
For example, Zerion Wallet aims to introduce Zora, which claims to have zero fees. In the AI sector, TAO experienced an incident yesterday and today proposed to destroy 10% of the supply, which may lead to short-term speculation.
WLD is not strictly AI-related, but its connection to Sam Altman and the regulatory issues surrounding its iris scanning device make it worth observing. OP and ARB are similar in terms of being L2 leaders, but it is currently very difficult for L2 projects to break out. The leading AI is watching RNDR's coin swap, ASI's coin merge, but the narrative imagination of WLD is limited.
(2) Macro News
The speculative connection between the AI concept in the cryptocurrency market and AI stocks in the US stock market has declined recently. It is advisable to pay more attention to the government and the sale of BTC, which has a stronger impact than Grayscale.
ETF approval is likely, but the timing depends on SEC approval. While the timing is not crucial, the expected management is important. The selling pressure of BTC has put significant pressure on the overall market, but it is recommended to reduce leverage and trade after observing exchange reserves and whale holdings.
The politfi token, which has been hyped due to the US election, is mainly a meme coin. Biden may not be as favorable as Trump, but both are quite old.
With the US stock market closed, PVP is predominant. Trump has issued NFTs, but data is visible, and he may need support or funding, possibly to please some voters.
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