Despite Powell's deliberate avoidance of the question of whether to cut interest rates in September during his speech on Tuesday, emphasizing the two-way risks of adjusting monetary policy, yesterday's weak economic data still boosted market confidence in rate cuts. U.S. bond yields generally fell, with the Dow slipping 0.06%, the Nasdaq rising 0.88%, and the S&P rising 0.5% once again breaking through historical highs.
Source: SignalPlus, Economic Calendar
In the cryptocurrency sector, the brief macro-level positive news failed to dispel the gloom hanging over the price of BTC. It was reported that the German government transferred $172 million worth of Bitcoin from its wallet to three exchanges: Coinbase, Kraken, and Bitstamp. In addition, similar actions were taken by the U.S. government recently (selling the Silk Road confiscation), and the upcoming repayment by Mt. Gox have all brought strong selling pressure to the market.
Today, the price of BTC fell below the crucial psychological support level of $60,000, briefly dropping below $57,000 before rebounding to $58,000. This led to a shortage of short-term put options for July 5th and July 12th, driving the IV curve out of its recent ultra-low levels, trending flat to higher. At the same time, a large amount of call options for July 26th were also sold, indicating a quite pessimistic market sentiment in the short term.
Source: Deribit (as of 4th July 16:00 UTC+8)
Source: SignalPlus
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of BTC Transactions
Data Source: Deribit, Overall Distribution of ETH Transactions
Source: Deribit Block Trade
Source: Deribit Block Trade
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