The short position of BTC is relatively strong, exceeding yesterday's expectations. The downward trend on the 30-minute timeframe continues to extend downward, directly hitting 59400, which is very close to the previous low point of 58400.
This account previously mentioned in the article "Interpretation of Chan's Analysis on June 25: BTC Continues to Decline, Altcoins No Longer Follow the Decline" that the big cake is about to run a daily downtrend corresponding to a 4-hour downtrend, which means it is going to construct a new 4-hour pivotal point. The only difference is that at that time, the deduction did not result in a third sell-off, but the current trend is much weaker than originally expected. The 4-hour upward trend in the past few days did not enter the large pivotal range, indicating that a 4-hour third sell-off is likely to occur.
The above is a screenshot of the article on that day. The actual trend is that the current 14th upward trend did not touch the yellow large pivotal range. This once again proves a very important point: in the overall downward trend on the daily timeframe, all bulls will be suppressed by strong bears. Therefore, the trading strategy should follow the trend, focusing on short positions, and the downtrend will not stop until a new 4-hour pivotal point appears.
Looking at the 4-hour live chart again, with the deep retracement of the 4-hour downtrend yesterday approaching the low point of 58400, it is almost certain that the 4-hour third sell-off has occurred, which is the weakest performance of the bulls. So, it's only a matter of time to test the low point of 56552, whether to first approach the low point infinitely, rebound upward, and then break through 56552, or directly sell off and break through 56552.
Regardless of which method is chosen, the cryptocurrency market will enter an extremely dark period. Only when a new 4-hour pivotal point appears and a consolidation divergence buy point occurs, will there be a chance of reversal. In other words, it is necessary to wait for the completion of the downward trend on the daily timeframe, the internal structure to appear, and a complete decline before there can be a significant reversal space.
As for how long the agony will last, when referring to the two types of downward trends on the left side of the 4-hour timeframe, it basically took about 1 and a half months. So, from the downward trend type running from the high point of 72000 on June 7 to today, July 4, it will probably take at least another half a month for the bulls to endure.
Endure it!
The above analysis is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice!
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