1. Recently, Saudi oil decoupled from the US dollar and did not renew the expiring agreement. Does this mean the US dollar hegemony is failing?

The news about Saudi oil decoupling from the US dollar and not renewing the agreement has been widely discussed in the domestic media recently. However, the authenticity of this news needs further confirmation, and everyone can search online for its source.

In today's information-overloaded environment, more and more unverified news is seeping into our daily lives. Relying on these unverified information without verification can affect our judgment. Therefore, I generally confirm many major news from multiple sources, especially by comparing domestic and foreign media.

Regarding this event itself, even if the decoupling of Saudi oil from the US dollar is true, I think it will indeed affect the US dollar's position in the energy and basic materials sectors. However, on the other hand, with the rise of emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, the US dollar is increasingly playing a monopolistic role as a hard currency in the technology field.

NVIDIA's chips are a very typical example.

At least in the coming years, it will be the "oil" of the technology field and must be exchanged with the US dollar. Moreover, it's not guaranteed that money alone can buy it; it also depends on whether the US government approves NVIDIA's sale to the buyer.

Surprisingly, there has even been an "anti-NVIDIA" alliance in the US market—several giants have started jointly developing artificial intelligence chips in hopes of breaking NVIDIA's monopoly. Furthermore, some departments of the US government have set their sights on NVIDIA, questioning its monopoly position and its impact on market competition.

This mechanism, which seems to "shoot oneself in the foot" but actually encourages competition, is actually a very important mechanism for protecting innovation and creating a fair environment for businesses. It is for this reason that I believe more NVIDIAs will likely continue to emerge in the United States in the future. The US dollar's position as a hard currency in the technology field will further strengthen.

I have also written a dedicated article about the hegemonic position of the US dollar in the past. Compared to gold, the value of the US dollar has undoubtedly been weakening, but its monopoly position among all the world's currencies has not changed. In our generation's lifetime, its monopoly position may weaken, but it will not be lost.

2. Normally, the anticipation before an interest rate cut truly belongs to the financial market. After the actual cut, it should be a realization of the positive expectation, not a negative one. The financial market has always been driven by overdrawn expectations.

Regarding the effects of interest rate cuts/raises, I have also written about it in previous articles.

In many cases, the financial market is driven by expectations, but when it comes to interest rate cuts/raises, I do not believe that the realization of the news is negative. Perhaps at the moment of realization, that day, or that week, it may be negative, but in the following longer period, it will definitely gradually show significant effects on the investment market.

Taking an interest rate cut as an example, I have previously used the following analogy in an article:

A porter carrying a 100-pound load on his back is already exhausted, and at this point, his employer tells him that after walking another 100 meters, he will take away 10 pounds of his burden, leaving him with only 90 pounds to carry. The porter would surely be happy upon hearing this information. When he walks the 100 meters and the 10 pounds are actually removed, I believe he would be even happier. As he walks another 100 meters and another 10 pounds are removed, he would become even happier, not only feeling refreshed but also standing up straighter.

This kind of effect will be clearly reflected in the porter.

Similarly, the anticipation of an interest rate cut will energize the market, but the actual implementation of the interest rate cut will show the market the real and tangible effects.

This Saturday (July 6th), we will be having an online discussion on Twitter. If you have any questions, please reply to the following link:

https://x.com/DaosViews/status/1808011332572401813

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