Author: Crypto Weiduo

Even the old hands in the market know that every time the market is in a downturn, everyone blames the lack of attraction for Web2 users, so there is no new capital coming in. This is the so-called "Mass Adoption" narrative, that is, Crypto's "Web3" products need to cater to Web2's non-profit-oriented users.

This logic is like saying "African children will starve because you waste food in China," emotional but illogical?

?‍♂️Mass Adoption - First understand who "Mass" really is?

Who is the MASS "masses"? Don't generically say it's traditional Web2 users—Bullshit. "Masses" are a group of different but classifiable individuals.

Blind people don't drive domestic electric cars, not because they don't support domestic products, but because they don't have a driver's license (no demand). Anything that can continue to attract users is because users have irreplaceable needs, and it provides irreplaceable solutions. This applies to cars, and also to Crypto.

Whether you agree or not, Crypto has its boundaries. All its features (privacy, decentralization, etc.) come from its core value—permissionlessness, which is not applicable to the majority of people on earth. Permissionlessness is mainly to deal with the restrictions of banks, governments, and large companies on freedom: if banks don't allow you to open an account freely, you insist on it; if the government doesn't allow you to invest or gamble, you insist on it; if large companies and governments restrict speech, you insist on it.

Those who have needs are definitely not the majority, most people are domesticated by the system. It is those who understand arbitrage, are anti-establishment "social marginal people"—I call the characteristics of these people "merchants" (of course, personality traits are not black and white, but more like a spectrum, just a matter of strength).

They may not really do business, or even have money, but they are destined to be a minority, otherwise the ruling class cannot be maintained.

These people "speak in business." If ordinary people think that getting a stable job is selling themselves at a wholesale price to the "unit," then the audience of Crypto is the kind of people who want to fully price their own time, energy, resources, and "sell themselves" at a good price. These people must prioritize making money.

?We may have already Mass Adopted?

So, how many people in the spectrum of "merchants" have not been exposed to Crypto?

According to United Nations data, the "average" annual income of adults worldwide is 23,000U. If we assume that 10% of this goes into Crypto regardless of what they do, then it would be 18.4 trillion for the global population of 8 billion. Based on Binance's spot trading volume of 1.12 trillion in March 2024, the annual spot trading volume alone is over 13 trillion. This means there is still over 30% of space, and of course, if we include other exchanges, it may have already exceeded this number.

Of course, this is an average value. If we look at the top 10% of global income earners, who account for 52% of the total global income, it's about 800 million people. According to Crypto.com, the number of cryptocurrency users worldwide in 2023 is 520 million, so there is still about 30% of space. After this 30% of space is closed, we will probably see an annual growth similar to the gambling industry (about 4.7%), which is almost equivalent to the interest rate of the Federal Reserve.

Do you think there are no new users now because the market is about to reach its actual TAM limit? It's rare for people with higher education not to have heard of Bitcoin by 2024.

Do you still want to "send the show to the countryside" to "mass adopt" Web2 users? ?Most of those who could be adopted by you have probably already been exposed to coins.

♠️The existing market is never the problem, high-frequency users are

I have experience in the gambling industry, both online and offline, it is one of the largest industries in the world. From the perspective of the industry as a whole, using the logic of "Mass Adoption," there is no incremental market or existing market in gambling— theoretically, all wealthy people in the world are my market, because wealthy people have a gambling nature. The growth of the gambling industry is linked to global inflation.

Offline gambling is still regional, while crypto is even global, and its performance is not affected by regional tourism. Therefore, the logic of Crypto and gambling is similar from the perspective of the entire industry. If the performance is not good in a year, it's not because there are no new users, just like a casino doesn't rely on foot traffic. It's because existing users are betting less and betting less frequently.

The main players in the casino are two types of people, one is particularly proficient and addicted to one or two games, such as slot machines, baccarat, mostly older people (go every day, high frequency). The other type that contributes the most is the VIP room, basically accounting for 80% of the casino (can be understood as big players).

?The same logic applies: The essence of Crypto's growth is the process of cultivating high-frequency and big players.

?‍♂️Mass Admission rather than Mass Adoption

How many people know how to calculate points on a slot machine? How many people play baccarat? How many people play Texas Hold'em? Learning these is more costly than learning to play coins: complex rules, gambling courage, entry barriers (membership, betting, etc.).

Why doesn't the casino have an "adoption" problem? Because the casino provides an irreplaceable solution to an irreplaceable need (gambling). The casino is clear to its customers: you come here to win money. To win money in the casino, you have to learn the rules of the casino. The casino lets you in to gamble (Admission), rather than catering to your other identities' "daily needs" (Adoption).

It's hard to imagine a casino coming out and telling you, "I want to create a social network for gamblers, so they will spend more in our whiskey bar rather than coming here with the goal of winning money"—the development of the gambling industry is at most from offline to online, accepting multiple payment methods, cooler slot machine themes, just to improve the user experience.

Similarly, Crypto/Web3 needs to be clear: "Let them come to make money!" Let the "merchants" of the world come here to try to make money, on the condition of learning the rules of Crypto. Their way of making money is to engage in games involving money flow (trading, staking, borrowing, etc.), everything revolves around this logic.

Those who don't play by the rules (such as doing projects without considering the three-plate theory, just listening to KOL to hype coins), and those who play too poorly and go bankrupt, are all eliminated. The ones left are the high-frequency users who have formed muscle memory, and the best among them are invited to the VIP room. The so-called construction is to allow more people to participate in the trial, participate in the trial faster, have more diverse and cool trials, make larger total bets, have more continuous games, and provide things for gamblers to show off their identity (casinos sell watches and luxury goods, while in Crypto it's NFT?). This not only refers to project selection, but also includes growth.

Conclusion

Mass Admission is a core logic that I use to evaluate and think about projects, and it is even the first logic to consider. Using this logic, think about why memes, inscriptions, and Solana are popular, and not the entire range of ETH (except Base), VC coins, RWA? Why do I say that what is most lacking is dev and not "users"?

I believe you will have different answers.

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