I have shared some of the views of Lin Yuan, a well-known A-share investor, in my articles many times. His perspectives often provide deep inspiration from a unique angle.

Recently, I came across a very interesting video of an interview with Lin Yuan by Gleam.

In the interview, Gleam mentioned an experience of Lin Yuan's:

In 2007, the closing price of Maotai stock was 199 yuan, and the net profit for that year was 2.8 billion RMB. By 2013, the closing price of Maotai stock was 113 yuan, and the net profit for that year was 15.1 billion RMB.

During these 6 years, Maotai's net profit increased by more than 4 times, but its stock price did not rise but fell.

Gleam asked Lin Yuan how he managed to get through these 6 years and how he could persist in holding onto Maotai without selling.

Lin Yuan responded very straightforwardly, saying that for him, this was not a struggle.

First, he bought Maotai at a price much lower than the current stock price.

Secondly, during these 6 years, he saw Maotai's net profit increase significantly, which further convinced him that the true value of Maotai was much higher than its stock price. In this situation, he simply did not consider the stock price.

Here, it is necessary to add some background knowledge:

From the end of 2007 to the end of 2013, Maotai's stock price experienced two significant bull and bear cycles. In these two cycles, Maotai's stock price retraced by more than 50%.

Considering this background, we can see that Lin Yuan, over the course of 6 years, completely ignored two retracements of over 50% in price, firmly holding onto his favored investment without any hesitation.

This is very similar to some of Buffett's operations.

Furthermore, in response to Lin Yuan's two statements, this is how I understand it:

Regarding not feeling distressed when the purchase price is much lower than the market price, I guess he meant that for him, if he buys an investment at a very low price, as long as the subsequent price is much higher than his purchase price, he will not feel "distressed" psychologically and will not feel the pain of loss.

When the intrinsic value of an investment significantly grows and is clearly higher than its stock price, Lin Yuan is completely unconcerned that the stock price will forever linger at a low level, believing that it will definitely demonstrate its value one day. At least he managed to wait for 6 years without caring about the stock price.

After watching this interview, I immediately thought of the crypto world and myself.

If we count from the earliest purchase of Bitcoin and Ethereum to now, the prices at which I bought them were much lower than their current prices.

However, in this process, I really cannot avoid feeling "distressed" because even though I know the long-term trend of Bitcoin and Ethereum prices is definitely bullish, when I feel that the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum (in the late bull market) are "too high," I still can't help but sell—this is what I often refer to as "selling at the peak of the bull market."

Although I often talk about selling at the peak of the bull market and have practiced this strategy in past cycles, luckily hitting the jackpot every time, deep down, I feel like I'm walking on thin ice because I don't really have the confidence that I can time the next peak at the right moment.

Up to now, I have read books by Duan Bin, Charlie Munger, and am currently reading books by Warren Buffett. To be honest, after reading these books by the predecessors, I increasingly feel that the profits from those few times of selling at the peak of the bull market were due to my good luck, rather than necessarily my strong judgment. After watching Lin Yuan's interview, this feeling has become even stronger.

Now, let's consider Bitcoin and Ethereum from this perspective:

Firstly, whether from the perspective of internal ecological development, community consensus, or external capital inflows and regulatory development, I firmly believe that the long-term value of Bitcoin and Ethereum is upward.

But if Maotai's story happened to Bitcoin and Ethereum, for example, from now until 2030, would the prices of Bitcoin and Ethereum still be maintained at $60,000 and $3,400?

I have written in previous articles that if the price of Bitcoin does not exceed $100,000 in this round of the market, I wouldn't even consider selling, and I would hold onto it until the next expected bull market in 4 years.

But this assumption actually has a default premise: that is, 4 years later, the price of Bitcoin will definitely exceed $100,000.

This is similar to Lin Yuan's understanding of Maotai, our understanding and cognition of Bitcoin and the field!

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