On the afternoon of June 24th, AICoin researchers conducted a live graphic and textual sharing on "ETF and BTC On-Chain Flow (with Membership Giveaway)" in the AICoin PC-end - Group Chat - Live. Here is a summary of the live content.

I. On-Chain BTC Flow

Some directions of BTC flow need to be marked. We generally refer to the entity labels of addresses, such as exchanges: Binance, OKX, Bitget, Coinbase, Bitfinex, HTX, Gate, etc.; miners: miners and mining pools, Bitfarms, Marathon, F2POOL; institutions: asset management institutions, such as Blackrock, Ark Invest, Grayscale, etc.; and normal user addresses: addresses of some celebrities, whales, and individual users.

1. Exchange BTC Reserves

It can be seen that on January 22nd, when BTC was at the year's low of $39544, the exchange reserve was about 3.0423 million BTC. It has now decreased to 2.8261 million BTC, a decrease of about 216,200 BTC, meaning that 216,200 BTC has been transferred from exchanges to other addresses.

2. Miner Reserves

The miner reserve decreased from 1.834 million BTC in January 2024 to 1.816 million BTC, a decrease of about 18,000 BTC. The total outflow from miner and exchange reserves is 234,200 BTC.

3. How much did institutions buy?

(1) Looking at the net inflow data related to the BTC on-chain holdings of ten US stock ETFs, the amount increased from 647,100 BTC on January 22nd (mainly Grayscale's holdings at that time) to 880,300 BTC (data as of June 11th), an increase of 233,200 BTC.

The increase in BTC holdings by ETFs corresponds roughly to the decrease in exchange and miner reserves. Since January, it can be roughly inferred that BTC has flowed from exchanges and miners to ETFs.

(2) Currently, the net inflow data of ETFs shows weakness, with funds being in an outflow state since June 13th. This means that the buying power of BTC from institutional buyers is weakening, or even in a selling state. IBIT (under BlackRock) buying funds have decreased, while other ETF mechanisms continue to bleed, resulting in overall poor net inflow data. On-chain BTC can be viewed on the Dune dashboard, selecting BTC as the unit: http://106.55.80.87/api/jump?link=https://dune.com/hildobby/btc-etfs or directly check ETF fund-related entities using Arkham, such as Grayscale: https://platform.arkhamintelligence.com/explorer/entity/grayscale. Wallets and exchanges can be judged by entity labels. Additionally, Grayscale or BlackRock regularly disclose their holdings, which is also related to BTC's recent price performance, as well as the structure of ETF investors and the sentiment of on-exchange traders.

II. BTC Situation Analysis

1. However, we see that the uniqueness narrative of BTC's attractiveness in the US stock market is declining. Previously, 1 BTC = 1 BTC, but in the US stock market, BTC is more often allocated as an asset, similar to commodities, stocks, and bonds. Compared to the Nasdaq and NVDA, BTC's recent performance is average, and attention needs to be paid to BTC's digital gold positioning. Holdings data may be delayed, but falsification is very rare because some ETFs will disclose their addresses, which can be directly searched for using a blockchain explorer like OKLink. The current impact of miner selling pressure is not significant. The recent biggest impact on BTC selling pressure is the German government transferring BTC to three exchanges, as well as the BTC debt repayment around October, which may also have selling pressure.

2. BTC Market Analysis

The purple box marks the US stock trading time. It can be seen that there is significant price volatility before the US stock market opens, and even more volatility during trading hours. The current US stock trading time is 21:30-4:00 the next day. On non-trading days for US stocks, BTC has stabilized, and the price fluctuation is smaller than on trading days.

Therefore, for short-term trading, it is necessary to consider the US stock trading time. For most altcoins, BTC's volatility has a significant impact. When BTC falls, altcoins fall; when BTC fluctuates, altcoins also fluctuate or fall. Most altcoins find it difficult to establish independent trends, so it is recommended to pay attention to BTC during US stock trading hours, which for the Asian time zone is from 21:30 to 4:00 the next day.

III. ETF Data Analysis

1. Everyone is waiting for news about spot ETH ETFs. Most opinions believe that around July, the cryptocurrency market will revolve around BTC and ETH, and the bottom range cannot be determined for the time being. Often, when the US stock market opens, the Asian time zone is asleep, but the volatility is particularly high.

2. What is the significance of the currently disclosed ETF data? Some say that ETF data is delayed, including trading volume, net inflow, and on-chain transfers, mainly due to the settlement mechanism of ETFs.

3. ETFs settle after the US stock market closes each day. Unlike directly buying coins on an exchange, which settles in real-time, ETFs use the daily average price as the settlement price, measured by a third-party Bitcoin index company to gauge prices from global exchanges, such as CME's BRRNY. For example, IBIT uses CME's index, but its marked price does not completely sync with the market price. If an ETF buys 1000 shares today and sells 900 shares, resulting in a net purchase of 100 shares, the ETF will need to buy BTC. This is the significance of net inflow data. If funds do not have a net inflow, it reflects that the ETF has not bought BTC.

Currently, ETFs are receiving flows from the US stock market, where US stock ETFs have been the main buying force for BTC in recent months. ETFs connect to the world's largest stock financial market, reflecting traditional investors' attention to cryptocurrencies and regulatory attitudes. When the profit effect disappears, most investors' attention to cryptocurrencies will decrease. The current bull market is mainly driven by funds from traditional financial markets.

4. The bull market is still ongoing, and there are no major fluctuations like FTX. Regarding the Chinese market, the main focus is on Solana and Base on-chain Chinese market. Currently, there are many political-related memes, and the election topic is ongoing. The Hong Kong ETF has been open for a long time, but the trading volume is too low, and the scale cannot be compared to the US stock market. There are not many people interested in it now.

The AUM of US stock BTC ETFs is $55 billion, while the AUM of Hong Kong's BTC ETF is $250 million, which is too small. It is recommended to check during US stock trading hours.

If you are concerned about significant fluctuations, we recommend using our price alert feature. Click the link to activate the PRO version for more price alert reminders: https://www.aicoin.com/zh-Hans/vip

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。