Hello everyone, I am your friend Lao Cui Shuo Bi, focusing on the analysis of digital currency market trends, striving to provide the most valuable market information for the majority of coin friends. Welcome the attention and likes of the majority of coin friends, and refuse any market smoke bombs!

With an article on Tuesday, which encouraged everyone to go long, I believe everyone also received the expected returns on the 19th. This led many users to hope that Lao Cui would talk more about the short-term trends. This kind of accuracy in Lao Cui's short-term judgment has led to misjudgments. Lao Cui does not always have such accuracy, and Lao Cui's articles only provide a directional reference to everyone and do not constitute investment advice. Therefore, Lao Cui does not have the ability to analyze contract-level issues as many people hope. When reading the article, I hope everyone can use their own thinking to assist in judgment and not rely too much on Lao Cui's analysis. Returning to our main topic, the market has returned to the starting point of Tuesday, and many friends have once again entered a period of confusion about the future trend. In fact, there has been no significant change in the overall direction compared to our previous analysis.

Let's start with the overall level of funds. With the opening of the European Cup, it has attracted a large number of gamblers, and it can be said that the number of retail investors in the contract market has visibly decreased, which has not changed anything. Therefore, at the linear level, the market has gradually begun to show a trend of oscillating downward, which is based on the gradual withdrawal of funds by retail investors. Looking at the entire coin circle, there are currently not many stimulating factors for growth. Most of it relies on the subsequent trends generated by short-term capital flows, so there is basically nothing to say about this market. However, as we enter the end of June, everyone needs to pay attention to the events in July. According to Bloomberg, it is very likely that the news of Ethereum's listing on July 2nd will be confirmed, which is an issue that everyone needs to pay attention to. Once the listing is confirmed, there will definitely be a bullish trend in the early stage, and there will be at least a profit space of 500-1000 points.

The gradual rise in the exchange rate has further worsened the entire market. For the future trend, the impact of the exchange rate will definitely determine the short-term trend. Many friends have asked Lao Cui how to observe the next trend of the exchange rate. Everyone needs to observe our export behavior. As long as the data on the foreign trade side is better, the exchange rate will basically be raised in the future. The appreciation of the US dollar is linked to interest rate cuts, and the faster growth of our economy will also drive the appreciation of the RMB. The most obvious manifestation of this is that the exchange rate from 2016 to 2019 once reached the beginning of 6.1, which is a manifestation of national strength. However, the exchange rate is likely to be maintained at around 7, the share of the manufacturing industry market has indeed decreased, the escape of foreign capital, and the outflow of international capital will lead to the devaluation of the RMB. The fundamental of currency is still the credit system. Therefore, as long as the exchange rate rises in the short term, the appreciation of the US dollar will drive the entire market linked to the US dollar to appreciate overall. However, the US dollar will flow away, and funds will flee, which will form a short-term downward trend in the coin circle.

As for the overall range trend, there will definitely be a brief rebound trend, after all, there is still support from traditional capital in the circle. The focus is still on the actual landing policy of the interest rate cut by the US. From Lao Cui's perspective, it is difficult for the US to support the interest rate cut until the end of the year. It is more likely to be maintained around October, and the interest rate cut at the end of the year will weaken the start of the economy. So everyone will be concerned about the trend before the interest rate cut. Before these two pieces of news arrive, it will definitely revolve around the trend of oscillating downward, and everyone can pay attention to the fluctuation of the exchange rate. The rest is to look at the fluctuation at the news level, that is, the landing of major financial policies, such as interest rate cuts in various places, changes in the US stock market, and so on. As long as there is no impact in this area, the future trend will inevitably follow the downward trend, but this does not mean that the short term will definitely open up the downward space. The depth of this round of correction is still visible, and there will not be a continuous downward space. There will be rebound space in the downward trend.

Therefore, if you have long positions that are trapped, there is still an opportunity to get out of the trap, and the strength of the rebound will be maintained at most between 150-200 points. The final summary for everyone: the recent volatility is definitely dominated by the short side. For those who want to go short in the short term, the overall profit space can be maintained at around 50-100 points. If there is a profit, exit in time. The rebound space for long positions depends on whether the news of Ethereum's listing on July 2nd is still smooth. If it is smooth, the trend of the rebound will be very fierce. For the overall trend, spot users can always enter the market to wait for the right time. Ethereum's 4000 is still possible within the year, and Bitcoin's 70,000 should not be considered too far away. However, it is best to focus on the short-term and jade forms around the short trend, and overall there will not be a significant deviation. There is not much downward space below! The article has not been completed and has already ushered in a wave of short positions. The market is moving very fast. It is best for everyone to communicate with Lao Cui before making specific decisions!

Original article created by Lao Cui Shuo Bi. For assistance, you can contact Lao Cui directly.

Lao Cui's message: Investment is like playing chess. Masters can see five steps, seven steps, or even a dozen steps ahead, while those with lower skills can only see two or three steps. The master focuses on the overall situation, plans for the general trend, and does not focus on individual moves and territories, with the ultimate goal of winning the game. Those with lower skills fight for every inch, frequently switching between long and short positions, only fighting for short-term gains, and frequently end up in trouble.

This material is for learning reference only and does not constitute buying or selling advice. Buying or selling based on this material is at your own risk!

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