Title: AICoin Weekly Analysis

Macro Interpretation:

① Last week, the US stock market showed a divergent trend, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 steadily rising while the Dow Jones fell slightly. Tech giants such as Microsoft, Apple, and Nvidia saw significant gains, highlighting the market's optimistic expectations for the tech industry. For the cryptocurrency market, this week, priority should be given to project tokens in the technology sector.

Internationally, the US provided over $1.5 billion in aid to Ukraine, and the G7 reaffirmed its support for Ukraine. Trump's attitude towards TikTok indicates that even under political pressure, he remains committed to not intervening in the operation of social media platforms. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve official Kashkari expects a possible interest rate cut by the end of the year, implying a cautious attitude towards inflation and the job market.

This week, the market focus will shift to central bank policies, with rate decisions from the central banks of Canada, Switzerland, and the UK, as well as intensive speeches by Federal Reserve officials.

Data Analysis:

This week, tokens such as ID, PIXEL, APE, NYM, and MANTA will undergo one-time unlocking, releasing a total value of over $88 million. Two projects require special attention:

• Pixels (PIXEL) will unlock approximately 54.38 million tokens at 6:00 PM on June 19th (Singapore time), accounting for 7.05% of the current circulation, with a value of approximately $20 million.
• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 78.49 million tokens at 8:00 AM on June 22nd (Singapore time), accounting for 18.23% of the current circulation, with a value of approximately $44 million.

Both of these tokens have a very large unlocking scale and value, as well as a significant proportion of the current circulation. When trading, we should pay attention to the bearish effects brought about by the unlocking of these tokens and avoid spot trading. For futures contracts, we should seek short opportunities.

BTC Technical Analysis:

① Looking at the BTC weekly chart, after being blocked at the previous high of $72,000 and experiencing a pullback, the weekly chart formed two candles with moderate upper shadows, indicating some pressure from above. As the current market has not reached a new high, and the position is close to the historical high, we need to pay attention to the possibility of a double top structure. The MACD high-level death cross is still in operation, combined with last week's candle closing with a moderate bearish candle, it is expected that the market will likely continue to run in a weak trend this week.

② On the daily chart, last week, after quickly hitting the key resistance level of $70,000 during the CPI data release, the price fell all the way down, forming a long upper shadow, indicating insufficient bullish strength. The current trend is still within an M-top structure. If the overall pattern is established, the theoretical downside target is around $60,200, which is also the position that was repeatedly tested and rebounded during the previous range oscillation. Currently, there is some support near the MA60 and MA120, so the market saw a certain degree of rebound around $65,000. However, as the moving averages are in the process of moving, and there is some room for fluctuation, the current support continues to refer to the Fibonacci 50% retracement level, around $64,275 to $64,600. Pay attention to the outcome at this level, as it will affect the future trend.

③ On the four-hour chart, the market is currently running within a downtrend channel. If the trend continues in an orderly manner, there may be two possible paths in the future: testing the upper resistance and then falling back, or rebounding after finding support at the lower boundary. Both of these possibilities exist, so we can pay attention to short-term opportunities for long and short positions.

Of course, there are other possibilities, such as breaking through the upper resistance of the descending channel and turning into a short-term bullish trend, or continuing to decline and breaking through the lower support. Based on historical trends, the former is more likely than the latter.

In terms of indicators, the Trend Ribbon shows a bearish trend, but the bearish strength has weakened, indicating the possibility of maintaining a volatile trend in the short term.

④ The current price is running between the 4/1 and 3/1 Gann angle lines. The 4/1 support line is moving upward near $64,100, which is also the potential target for the bearish market and an ideal entry point for the bullish market.

⑤ In terms of trading volume, apart from a significant volume when the price quickly dropped to $65,080 over the weekend, the overall trading volume has been relatively small. While there was an increase in bullish strength around $66,000 last week, it still did not show a matching volume-price relationship compared to the volume during the previous decline, indicating a heavy market wait-and-see sentiment. The future price trend needs to pay attention to changes in trading volume.

⑥ The RSI indicator oscillates in the 40-50 range, indicating that the market is in a weak consolidation phase, without clear oversold or overbought signals. There is a high probability of maintaining a volatile trend in the short term.

⑦ On the daily price chart, the price is running between the middle and lower Bollinger Bands, with the upper band forming a clear resistance zone. The current middle band is near $68,300, which can be considered the current medium-term pressure level.

⑧ The volume-price distribution chart shows that the chip concentration support at the daily level is near $63,000, and the area above $64,000 is a relatively thin trading area. If the market tests this area in the future, there may be some loosening.

⑨ Santiment data shows that the total number of wallets holding more than 10 bitcoins is currently the same as it was two years ago. Since the bear market in the second half of 2022 caused by FTX, there has been a significant correlation between the number of wallets holding more than 10 bitcoins and the overall market value of Bitcoin since the bear market in November 2022. This means that there is currently an important window for the long-term trend of the market. Referring to the historical chart, the number of wallets holding more than 10 bitcoins was at its historical high point before the big rise in October last year.

⑩ Considering various technical indicators, although the price of BTC is constrained by the $70,000 pressure, there is some support below at $65,000, followed by a resonant support level near $64,000. It is recommended to pay attention to the performance of key resistance and support levels, be vigilant about the further strengthening of bearish forces, and also be mindful of the impact of major news. Last week, the overall trend followed the analysis and fell below $66,000 over the weekend, which is in line with the previous prediction of a high probability of a decline. We mainly focused on short positions last week, and both times we suggested paying attention to short-term support, which accurately predicted the levels.

Spot Trading: For strong coins within the day, CVX, FTT, and MIR are worth paying attention to.

Disclaimer: The strategy only represents personal subjective opinions, is for reference only, and does not constitute a basis for trading. Any operations based on this carry their own risks.

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