The 2024 US presidential election is about to kick off, and for the first time, cryptocurrency has become an important topic of discussion, reaching an unprecedented level of importance and influence. Both major candidates, Trump and Biden, have to face this rapidly rising emerging market and incorporate their attitudes and policy proposals towards cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies.
I. Cryptocurrency: From the Margins to the Campaign Chips
The development of cryptocurrency can be described as a history of innovation and controversy. From the birth of Bitcoin in 2009 to the existence of thousands of cryptocurrencies today, cryptocurrency has gone from nonexistence to acceptance, and is gradually moving towards the mainstream. Initially, cryptocurrency was just an experiment by a few tech geeks. However, over time, its value and influence have continued to rise, attracting more and more investors and institutions to join this emerging market.
Due to its characteristics such as decentralization and anonymity, cryptocurrency has faced regulatory challenges and legal disputes during its development. Governments and financial institutions around the world have varying attitudes towards cryptocurrency, with some countries actively accepting and attempting to incorporate it into regulatory frameworks, while others take a strict or even prohibitive stance.
1.1 Analysis of the Political Game Behind the Approval of Ethereum ETF
Following the approval and listing of Bitcoin spot ETF, the approval of Ethereum spot ETF can be seen as an important milestone in the cryptocurrency market, releasing a significant positive signal and indicating a gradual increase in the US government's acceptance of cryptocurrencies such as Ethereum.
During the initial application phase, many proposals for Ethereum ETF were rejected by the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) for various reasons. The reasons for rejection mainly focused on the controversy over whether Ethereum is a security, market manipulation, and inadequate regulatory framework. In the crucial approval process, political power struggles became an important factor, with Democratic lawmakers who had criticized similar decisions in the past mostly remaining silent. With the 2024 US presidential election approaching, major political parties and candidates are hoping to establish an image of supporting technological innovation and financial market reform among voters. The approval of Ethereum ETF can be seen as a positive signal from the government to the cryptocurrency market, helping to win the support of young voters and the tech industry.
1.2 Cryptocurrency Policy Becoming an Important Issue in the US Election
In the 2024 US presidential election, cryptocurrency is becoming an important topic of discussion and a bargaining chip to win over voters. The attitudes and policy proposals of the two main candidates, Trump and Biden, towards cryptocurrency not only directly affect their voter base, but may also have far-reaching effects on the entire cryptocurrency market.
Communities of color and young people were key to Biden's victory in the 2020 election. Institutional polls show that these two groups currently have higher cryptocurrency ownership rates than other groups, making it an important aspect for Trump and Biden to compete for their support. For many voters, cryptocurrency is not just an investment tool, but also a symbol of freedom and innovation. Especially among young voters and tech enthusiasts, cryptocurrency has broad support. Therefore, both Trump and Biden have to incorporate their policy proposals on cryptocurrency into their campaign strategies to win the support of these voters.
In the 2024 US presidential election, cryptocurrency companies such as Coinbase, Ripple, and venture capital firms supporting cryptocurrency like a16z have announced funding for the cryptocurrency super PAC, attempting to advocate for the cryptocurrency industry through "financial power."
II. Key Points of US Cryptocurrency Policy and the Election
The government's policy stance directly affects the price fluctuations of the cryptocurrency market and investor confidence. The US government's policy stance towards cryptocurrency largely influences global market trends. As a global financial center, changes in US policy not only directly affect the domestic market, but also have important demonstration effects on global investors and the regulatory policies of other countries.
In terms of regulation, the US government has always been cautious and conservative, mainly focusing on preventing market manipulation, protecting investors, and preventing financial crimes in the cryptocurrency market. The US government regulates the cryptocurrency market through multiple agencies such as the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), and the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN).
2.1 Trump's Changing Attitude Towards Cryptocurrency
During Trump's presidency, the US government's attitude towards cryptocurrency underwent a complex evolution. Initially, the Trump administration held a skeptical and negative attitude towards cryptocurrency, believing it lacked intrinsic value and was easily used for illegal activities. In 2019, Trump publicly expressed his dislike for Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies on Twitter, stating that they are "not money, highly volatile, and have no real basis." He also emphasized the potential use of cryptocurrency for illegal activities, including drug trafficking and money laundering. This negative attitude had a detrimental impact on the cryptocurrency market during the early stages of his presidency, leading to a relatively negative market response and causing many investors to feel uneasy about the future of cryptocurrency policy in the US.
Over time, the Trump administration's attitude gradually changed. In December 2018, Trump appointed Bitcoin supporter Mick Mulvaney as White House Chief of Staff, which was seen as a signal of the Trump administration's more open attitude towards cryptocurrency. Additionally, during his tenure, Trump signed several executive orders related to financial technology and blockchain technology, aimed at promoting innovation and technological development.
In the 2024 election, Trump's attitude underwent a 180-degree turn, publicly expressing support for the development of cryptocurrency and stating that "ensuring the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin happens in the United States." He also stated that if re-elected as president, he would commute the sentence of Ross Ulbricht, the founder of "Silk Road," on his first day in office. Trump also accepted cryptocurrency donations during his campaign, attempting to win voter support through policy adjustments. As of June 5th, benefiting from the growth of his holdings in meme coins, the value of Trump's cryptocurrency assets held in his address has exceeded $30 million.
However, on June 4th, Trump was convicted of 34 counts of falsifying business records in a criminal trial in Manhattan, becoming the first former president in US history to be convicted. This verdict added an unpredictable new variable to the 2024 US presidential election.
2.2 Biden Administration's Cryptocurrency Policy
During most of the Biden administration's tenure, its attitude towards cryptocurrency has been relatively conservative and cautious, focusing on strengthening regulation and preventing risks. In the early days of his administration, the Biden government strengthened regulatory measures for the cryptocurrency market through the Treasury Department and the SEC, issuing a series of regulations targeting cryptocurrency exchanges and market participants.
As the election approaches, the Biden administration has gradually adjusted its policy stance. Recently, Biden's campaign team has begun to engage with experts in the cryptocurrency industry, including individuals previously rejected by Biden, to seek guidance on his cryptocurrency policy. On May 23rd, the US House of Representatives passed the "Financial Innovation and Technology Act of the 21st Century" (FIT21), which would transfer regulatory authority over digital currencies from the SEC to the more industry-friendly Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). It would also more clearly define the standards for classifying cryptocurrencies as securities or commodities. Biden announced that if the FIT21 cryptocurrency bill is passed, he would not veto the bill.
In addition, another US presidential candidate, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., also affirmed cryptocurrency technology, stating that "cryptocurrency is a symbol of freedom and transparency." During his campaign, he purchased 21 bitcoins and bought 3 bitcoins for each of his children to show support for using cryptocurrency as a medium of exchange.
2.3 Key Time Points in the Current US Election
As the election progresses, the attitudes and policy proposals of each candidate towards cryptocurrency will have a significant impact on the market. Especially at key election junctures, candidates' policy statements and campaign activities may trigger significant market fluctuations. The following are some key time points in the current US presidential election:
June 27th: First Debate
Presidential debates often have a significant impact on the election situation, and the first debate is particularly important. Candidates' attitudes and policy proposals towards cryptocurrency will receive more exposure during the debate, and the market may react rapidly based on the debate results.
July 15-18: Republican National Convention
During the Republican convention, candidates will formally accept nominations and outline their campaign platforms. If Trump further clarifies his support for cryptocurrency policy at the convention, the market may receive a boost.
August 19-22: Democratic National Convention
Similar to the Republican National Convention, during the Democratic National Convention, Biden will formally accept the nomination. If the Biden team announces new cryptocurrency-friendly policies at the convention, it may have a positive impact on the market.
September 10: Second Debate
The second debate will be an important opportunity for the candidates to further clash. Any discussion of cryptocurrency policies could trigger market fluctuations.
November 5: National General Election
Election day is the most crucial time point. The election results will directly influence the future direction of cryptocurrency policies for the next four years, and the market may experience significant fluctuations after the election results are announced.
December 2024: Electoral College Vote
The Electoral College vote will ultimately confirm the President-elect. While not as important as the general election day, it could still have an impact on the market, especially in cases where the election results are disputed.
January 20, 2025: Presidential Inauguration Day
The elected president will be officially sworn in on this day. The new president's inauguration speech and subsequent policy statements will have a significant impact on the cryptocurrency market.
III. Inventory of Popular Tokens in the Current US Presidential Election
In the current US presidential election, various cryptocurrencies related to the candidates have become the focus of the market, reflecting investors' expectations and confidence in the candidates' policies. These tokens are not only speculative assets but also an important way to express political positions and cultural identity.
MAGA ($MAGA)
$MAGA is a token named after Trump's campaign slogan "Make America Great Again" and has become one of the most prominent cryptocurrencies in this election. The $MAGA token not only represents Trump's political ideology but also closely connects supporters through blockchain technology. Since the beginning of 2024, the $MAGA token has shown remarkable market performance, experiencing significant price increases multiple times.
Doland Tremp ($TREMP)
$TREMP is another popular token related to Trump, cleverly playing on Trump's name. The token has garnered widespread attention in the market since its launch, especially as Trump has mentioned cryptocurrency multiple times during his campaign. The $TREMP token was designed to support Trump's campaign while also providing investors with an opportunity to express their political stance.
Jeo Boden ($BODEN)
$BODEN is a token named after Joe Biden and has also received significant attention in this election. The $Boden token was issued to support Biden's campaign and attract investors who are optimistic about Biden's cryptocurrency policies. Unlike Trump's tokens, the market performance of the $BODEN token has been relatively stable, but with Biden's gradually more friendly stance towards cryptocurrency, it has provided support for the market performance of the $BODEN token.
DAO Governance ($PEOPLE)
The $PEOPLE token represents the concept of a decentralized autonomous organization (DAO), and the $PEOPLE coin is a donation certificate for contributors to ConstitutionDAO. ConstitutionDAO aims to raise funds through a DAO to try to purchase the last privately owned first edition printing of the US Constitution at a Sotheby's auction, preventing a billionaire from owning it alone. Although the bid failed, this auction of the Constitution can also be seen as a challenge from decentralized organizations to traditional capital.
Populist American Coin ($USA)
American Coin ($USA) is a token with strong populist attributes, with promotional materials similar to the US Declaration of Independence, giving $USA more cultural and political significance. The holders of the $USA token are mostly investors with a strong sense of identification with American culture and history, hoping to express their political stance and cultural identity through this token.
Meme Coin ($PEPE)
Meme Coin ($PEPE) stands out in the cryptocurrency market with its humor and satire. During the US presidential election, the $PEPE token has also become a hot topic for investors. During the 2016 US presidential election, the Pepe meme began to be associated with the election. The holders of $PEPE are mainly young investors who appreciate humor and satire, using this token to express their views on political and social phenomena.
8 Tokens Accepted by the Trump Team for Donations
On May 22nd, Trump's campaign team launched a website page https://www.donaldjtrump.com/crypto, where donors can donate to Trump's joint fundraising committee through Coinbase. The Trump team accepts donations in eight cryptocurrencies: BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and 0x (ZRX). This move not only expands Trump's sources of funding but also demonstrates his recognition and support for cryptocurrency. After Trump announced the acceptance of donations, the market reacted quickly, with prices generally rising.
IV. Prospects for the US Election and Cryptocurrency Policies
The impact of the current US presidential election on the cryptocurrency market will be profound and complex. Whether it's Trump's re-election or Biden's re-election, it will have varying degrees of impact on the cryptocurrency market.
4.1 Trump or Biden?
If Trump is re-elected, it can be expected that he will continue to adopt cryptocurrency-friendly policies. He has repeatedly expressed support for cryptocurrency during his campaign and accepted cryptocurrency donations, demonstrating his attention to and recognition of this emerging market. Trump may push for more relaxed regulatory policies, reduce restrictions on the cryptocurrency market, and encourage innovation and development. However, the decision-making style of the Trump administration is often more aggressive and volatile, and the market may experience significant fluctuations.
If Biden is re-elected, he may adopt a more balanced policy. During his tenure, he has shown a focus on regulating cryptocurrency, but has also gradually recognized the importance of the cryptocurrency market and adjusted some policies. If re-elected, Biden may continue to strengthen regulation of cryptocurrency. Additionally, compared to Trump, Biden's policy style is relatively moderate and stable, and the market may exhibit higher stability.
According to a survey by Paradigm, cryptocurrency holders this year are more inclined towards Trump than Biden, with a ratio of 48% to 39%, and 13% undecided.
4.2 Prospects for US Cryptocurrency Policy Direction
In the coming years, the US government's policy direction in the cryptocurrency field will continue to influence the development of global markets. Whether Trump or Biden is elected, the following two major policy trends may gradually emerge:
Encouraging innovation and application of blockchain technology: Recognizing the potential and innovation of cryptocurrency technology, especially in applications in finance, logistics, and healthcare, adopting a more rational and transparent attitude, with regulatory agencies more actively involved in the development of cryptocurrency to protect public interests rather than viewing cryptocurrency as a threat.
Improvement of regulatory framework: In the future, the US government will further improve the regulatory framework for cryptocurrency, including market manipulation monitoring, anti-money laundering measures, transparent trading rules, investor protection mechanisms, and more.
Adjustment of tax policies: With the expansion of the cryptocurrency market, the government may adjust tax policies to better manage and collect cryptocurrency transaction taxes.
As the 2024 US presidential election approaches, cryptocurrency will play an increasingly important role in this political game. In the coming months, we will witness the further elevation of cryptocurrency's status in politics, economics, and society, and observe how it influences election results and market trends. Investors need to closely monitor policy dynamics, develop sound investment strategies, and respond to the uncertain market environment to seize potential investment opportunities.
Hotcoin is closely monitoring the progress of the US election and its potential impact on the cryptocurrency market. It has listed $MAGA, $TREMP, $PEOPLE, $PEPE, and the 8 tokens accepted by the Trump team (BTC, ETH, DOGE, SHIB, XRP, USDC, SOL, and ZRX), and will continue to monitor and list related high-quality assets. For cryptocurrency investments, come to Hotcoin, where the hottest high-quality assets are reached first, staying one step ahead!
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