On the afternoon of May 30th, AICoin researchers conducted a live graphic and text sharing session titled "Trump all in Bitcoin, are you in?" in the AICoin PC-end - Group Chat - Live. Here is a summary of the live content.
I. Trump: From Denial to Active Support of Cryptocurrency
- In Trump's recent remarks, he not only criticized Biden for not understanding cryptocurrency, but also loudly proclaimed, "I am very positive and open to cryptocurrency companies and everything related to this emerging industry."
However, Trump said in 2021 that he did not like Bitcoin. At that time, he only saw the value of the US dollar and believed that the dollar was a permanent currency.
- Reasons for Trump's change in attitude?
The reason for the change may be due to seeing the attitudes of bankers.
First, the ETFs of Bitcoin and Ethereum were stimulated during Biden's presidency. Biden may not be particularly against cryptocurrency. The direction of cryptocurrency is not only determined by the president, but also by the bankers behind the United States. The direction of cryptocurrency may also be determined by bankers such as JPMorgan Chase and BlackRock. If they like cryptocurrency, cryptocurrency will be good; if they don't like cryptocurrency, no matter who is the president, cryptocurrency will not be good. Currently, the world's largest asset management company, BlackRock, is becoming more and more friendly to cryptocurrency, and the CEOs of other companies, although opposed, have been consistently positioning themselves in the cryptocurrency sector. Therefore, it is possible that Trump's attitude towards cryptocurrency has made a big turn due to seeing the attitudes of bankers.
This year is an election year, and Trump has also announced his plan to accept cryptocurrency campaign donations. In addition, Trump's cryptocurrency holdings reached $10 million on Monday morning. Most of Trump's assets ($7.89 million) are in TRUMP coin. These data all prove that Trump has promised to support the cryptocurrency industry.
II. What kind of person is Trump?
First, Trump is known for his bold and unexpected actions. He comes from a business background and is always good at capturing market hotspots and people's emotions. As a highly competitive and ambitious political figure, he always seeks ways to maximize his influence. Cryptocurrency is gradually becoming a new economic trend, attracting a large number of young voters and tech enthusiasts, and Trump naturally will not miss this opportunity.
III. Reasons for Trump's Entry into the Cryptocurrency Circle
The reason is simple: for votes.
Previous campaign pressure: With the regulatory measures of the Biden administration on the cryptocurrency industry, it has caused dissatisfaction among many cryptocurrency supporters. Trump keenly seized this point and directly said, "If you support cryptocurrency, you'd better vote for Trump." He also accepted various cryptocurrency donations, from BTC to ETH, SOL, SHIB, XRP, USDC, and ZRX, etc. With more and more cryptocurrency holders, the voices naturally become louder.
For future political capital: Trump stated that he will ensure that the future of cryptocurrency and Bitcoin happens in the United States, not driven overseas. He emphasized the autonomy of 50 million cryptocurrency holders and opposed the creation of central bank digital currencies. In addition, he promised that if elected, he will promote more policies favorable to the development of cryptocurrency, such as forcing the SEC to make favorable decisions for cryptocurrency, and releasing Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht, etc.
Why does Trump want to release the founder of Silk Road?
First, Silk Road was the first modern darknet market. The platform has been operated by Ross Ulbricht under the username "Dread Pirate Roberts" on his personal laptop since 2011, based on Bitcoin as a payment system. On October 1, 2013, Ulbricht was arrested by the FBI, and in 2015, he was sentenced to two life sentences plus forty years in prison without the possibility of parole on multiple charges.
Furthermore, Silk Road in the early days promoted the actual application of Bitcoin, significantly increased the visibility of cryptocurrency, and attracted a large number of users and investors. At the same time, this event also promoted global legal supervision and security review of cryptocurrency and darknet markets.
On May 25th, Trump promised at the Libertarian National Convention that if he is re-elected, he will pardon Ulbricht and commute his sentence immediately. Influenced by this news, the FreeRossDAO token FREE had the highest increase of more than 25 times that day. Therefore, this year, it is necessary to pay attention to Trump's remarks and the fluctuations in the cryptocurrency market, because a single word from Trump can easily cause significant fluctuations in related cryptocurrencies.
IV. Impact of Trump on the Cryptocurrency Market
Market reaction: Trump's series of statements and actions supporting cryptocurrency directly affected market trends. The US SEC under Biden's leadership may have felt the political pressure from Trump and changed its attitude towards the 8 spot Ethereum ETFs, approving all 19b-4 files on May 23rd.
Meme coin market: Some cryptocurrency tokens related to Trump, such as AssangeDAO and FreeRossDAO, surged due to his remarks. The increased attention triggered a strong rebound in these tokens.
In our newsflash, KOLs also mentioned these coins, such as the token of AssangeDAO, and many people should have just learned about this coin.
On May 27th, Trump revealed that if elected president, he will "seriously consider" pardoning Julian Assange, the founder of WikiLeaks. After WikiLeaks, which was founded by Assange, was financially blocked by traditional finance, it began accepting Bitcoin donations to help maintain its operations, which made Bitcoin more famous. Because of this, he is closely linked to cryptocurrency and information freedom. His fate is important to many cryptocurrency fans and affects their investment sentiment. After Trump made this statement, the token JUSTICE of Assange DAO surged. The market quickly responded to such political news. "The soaring and plummeting of Assange DAO, a grand scam under the banner of freedom!?"
The warning of the scam is also a wake-up call for investors. Many meme coins may only be hyped using hot topics, and once the hype subsides, prices may also quickly decline. This is also why many people are particularly afraid when they see sharp fluctuations.
V. Is the Probability of Trump's Election High?
Currently, the probability of his election seems high. Several most obvious reasons are:
Cryptocurrency holders have significant influence: According to a survey by Paradigm, 19% of registered voters in the United States have purchased cryptocurrency. This data shows that cryptocurrency holders are a significant voting group.
Cryptocurrency holders tend to support Trump: Among this group, Trump's support rate is 48%, significantly ahead of Biden's 39%. This means that if cryptocurrency holders prioritize cryptocurrency policies when voting, Trump will have an advantage.
Swing state groups play a voting advantage: The proportion of cryptocurrency holders is higher among ethnic minorities and young people, and these groups are significant in swing states (such as Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin). Swing states often play a decisive role in election results.
Trump's recent strategy seems to be to win more votes, but this also has a profound impact on the cryptocurrency market. If you support cryptocurrency, paying attention to his next move will definitely not be wrong. After all, in this market, a single word from every important figure can cause a storm.
What kind of impact can be speculated if Trump successfully wins the election?
Currently, it can be speculated that he may implement more policies to promote the development of cryptocurrency, such as easing regulatory pressure, promoting the approval of more cryptocurrency ETFs (the next highly anticipated ETF is the SOL ETF), etc.
VI. ETF Net Inflow Data
ETF has had a net inflow for 12 days. There has been a significant inflow of funds in the recent market, and the market sentiment is relatively stable. However, continuous stable inflow of funds is not necessarily 100% positive, and the short-term volume of Bitcoin ETFs may gradually approach saturation.
Currently, the asset management scale has exceeded 500 billion. If the volume of the ETF is to continue to grow, it will require external funds to enter or other favorable stimuli (such as the just mentioned U.S. election, or perhaps the stablecoin bill that may be approved this year - one of the future catalysts for Bitcoin, everyone can also pay more attention to our newsflash to track). A reminder: you can directly search for keywords in the newsflash, for example, search for "Xiao A analysis," and you will find various analyses and historical performance records.
You can search for other functions' keywords as well. It can be used as a quick review tool.
You can view ETF data on our PC homepage - Hot List.
VII. Needle Insertion Signal
In a turbulent market, needle insertion is the most feared. The custom indicator's needle insertion system teaches you to predict fluctuations in the short term in advance.
Principle of needle insertion signal formation: An upward needle insertion is generally formed when supply exceeds demand, and a downward needle insertion is formed when demand exceeds supply.
An upward needle insertion generally indicates a bearish outlook, while a downward needle insertion generally indicates a bullish outlook. Our custom indicators can also have a practical needle insertion warning system, which you can go and take a look at. The needle insertion warning can provide alert reminders, automated trading, and assist individuals in monitoring the market. It is recommended to use a 5-minute cycle.
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Recommended Reading
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