Cinneamhain Ventures founder Adam Cochran stated that Gary Gensler, chairman of the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), has continuously lacked clarity in regulating Ethereum, and the unstable and ambiguous classification of Ethereum by the SEC may hinder innovation in the cryptocurrency field and create significant uncertainty.

According to Bloomberg analyst James Seyffart, Grayscale has just submitted an updated 19b-4 filing for the Ethereum Mini Trust. This is actually the initial 19b-4 for the Grayscale Mini Ethereum Trust. I don't think this will be included in the first potential approval wave.

Renowned U.S. financial lawyer Scott Johnsson posted on the X platform that Fidelity's application for an Ethereum spot ETF has indicated that it will not pledge ETH. The bigger signal is that the commodity grantor trust structure and disclosures have not changed, indicating that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission will likely abandon the argument that ETH is a security.

The recent surge in the cryptocurrency market is completely attributed to the influence of Ethereum. I believe everyone has seen the news. Last night, the SEC actively requested an Ethereum ETF issuer to update the 19b-4 filing. It was mentioned yesterday that the 19b-4 is the first step for the ETF approval, and only when this is resolved will it move on to the S-1 registration review step. After this news came out, Bloomberg's ETF expert raised the expected approval of the Ethereum ETF from 25% to 75%.

Although the analyst later said that the 75% refers to the probability of the 19b-4 filing being approved, the SEC's unusual actions have greatly increased the probability of spot ETF approval. After the 19b-4 is approved, the issue of S-1 approval becomes a matter of when, not if. Another piece of evidence is that Grayscale's ETHE surged by 24% during trading, and the negative premium fell to below 10% during trading, closing at only 13%. This number should be the lowest after the approval of the BTC spot ETF. Galaxy explained that the SEC's 180-degree shift in attitude towards ETFs is due to Z considerations and is very likely related to the election.

Another change in attitude towards ETH is that the SEC distinguishes between ETH and staked ETH, considering the former as a commodity and the latter as a security. This can promote the approval of the Ethereum ETF and also save face for the SEC. In short, there is no doubt that this surge last night was driven by ETF news. We can see this from the rise in the ETH/BTC exchange rate, which surged from a low of 0.0447 to a high of 0.052 overnight, and the entire altcoin market was also lifted by ETH. I have said many times before that ETH is the engine of the bull market, and although the start is late, it has arrived.

Of course, the above only indicates an increase in probability. The next SEC review sequence includes VanEck on May 23, ark21shares on May 24, and hashdex on May 30. Considering that the SEC's shift has just begun, there is still a possibility of rejection for these three applications, especially since the SEC has had little recent interaction with these institutions. After May, the next one is the grayscale ETHE to ETF application on June 18, which I think has a high probability of approval. Then there are the applications from JPMorgan on July 5, Fidelity on August 3, and BlackRock's ishares ETH ETF on August 7. I think the worst-case scenario would be approval up to BlackRock, and I personally think that approval in August is better than in May. This way, there will be a three-month expectation in the market, and the market will likely enter a long bull phase. Of course, the approval in May will definitely be very beneficial for the short-term market, and as a result, ETH may hit a new high in June or July, but the new high may be like Bitcoin, unable to achieve a doubling in the surge, which will also lower the ceiling for the altcoin market. This is also why I think BlackRock's first issuance of an Ethereum spot ETF in August is more beneficial for the market.

Last night, the net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF was about $235 million, with BlackRock receiving $66.4 million, Fidelity receiving a net inflow of $64 million, ARKB receiving $68.3 million, BITB receiving $24 million, and GBTC and BTCW receiving net inflows of $9.3 million and $5.2 million, respectively. The $237 million last night marked the sixth consecutive day of net inflows after last week's five consecutive whips, and it was also the fourth consecutive day of single-day net inflow exceeding $200 million, and the fifth consecutive day of single-day inflow exceeding $100 million. These sets of data fully reflect the obsession of U.S. ETF investors with BTC, and the flow of funds continues to increase, which is definitely heartening for the secondary market.

The short-term resistance for Bitcoin is focused around 71,500-72,000. Once it breaks through and stabilizes, a new historical high will appear, with support around 69,500-69,000. The upper resistance for Ethereum is around 3,880-3,950. Although there is positive news, if it cannot reach this price range, there will still be a retracement, with short-term support around 3,680-3,630, followed by 3,580-3,550. Short-term traders can refer to these prices.

Article publication review has a time delay, and the market is constantly changing. The above suggestions are for reference only, and risks are self-assumed! The market changes every day, and all I can do is use my many years of practical experience to provide some weak assistance, guiding everyone's investment decisions and management in the right direction. Meeting is fate, and I am a person who believes in fate. If you have any doubts or questions in the currency circle, you can pay more attention to Zhou Yueying, and I believe it will be helpful to you.

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