Good evening everyone, I am trader Gege. A good market is not about the instant waterfall that makes you desperate or arrogant, but the steady trend that gives you compound interest. Running is for moving forward, and letting go is a higher realm. A master doesn't play a bad hand well, but knows when to fold at a critical moment, not risking everything for an uncertain future. Good at preaching, one can stand undefeated. Don't always try to match your ambitions and neglect everything you have experienced. I have always emphasized that teamwork is always easier than working hard alone. Choosing a thoughtful analyst is better than choosing a good one. Following the right person can bring a lifetime of profit.
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Continuing from the previous article, let's talk about the operation first. The long position in Bitcoin from 57,600 has been cleared by those who entered internally. The profit is not much, over 36,000 U (not visible here, but visible elsewhere). Some may say that recently, many have made more profit from shorting. Yes, both long and short positions can make a profit, and everyone has their own way of operating.
Speaking of the market, CPI will be announced on Wednesday. In the short term, the institutions will definitely use the news to shake the market. The volatility is estimated to be a bit large, so friends with positions or operations should pay attention to risk control. Everyone also knows about the ETF event, with the trial on the 23rd, and the exchange rate has been falling. The recent weak adjustment of the market, I think, is mainly due to the reduced mining income after the halving, the poor performance of the stocks of listed mining companies, and the increased uncertainty brought by the conflict in the Middle East. The rising inflation expectation is not conducive to interest rate cuts. Currently, the market's incremental funds are also insufficient, and the duration of the adjustment cannot be predicted. It may be a month, two months, or even longer. We can only watch and wait as we move forward.
From a technical perspective, the weekly level still has the risk of retesting the midline. As mentioned in a previous article, the 7-day moving average has not been able to break through, and is still being resisted by the short-term moving average. The entire market on the daily level is still in a downtrend channel, and the upper downtrend line cannot be broken through and stabilized, so the current trend is weak. This line is also near the 60-day moving average, so we need to focus on this key area for right-side trend operations.
In addition to some key prices such as 60,000, 58,000, and the low point of 56,000, the key focus is on the EMA200. If the subsequent market breaks through those key prices, we need to look at the vicinity of the EMA200, which is also considered the most important psychological price level for most bulls in the market. So, the counter-trend trend either does not reach, or it directly breaks through. We also do not predict, just reserve our bullets, follow the market, and there are many opportunities. Don't wait for the big trend to come while your gun is empty.
Finally, let's speculate a bit. From the end of December last year to the beginning of January this year, the market also had a strong support trend after breaking through the 40,000 level. On January 22nd, the daily candle broke through to the 38,500 level, and after about 3 days of small fluctuations, it directly rallied. Will the same script be followed this time? Maybe, possibly, although the probability is not high, this is just speculation. Trading is a probability event. We just need to grasp how to act when the probability is right, and what to do when it's wrong.
In the near term, the articles will focus on short-term trading. After two retracements at the 63,000 level, a small double top has formed. In the short term, you can enter a short position again at the 62,000-63,000 level. Looking up, it is the resistance of the downtrend line and the daily 60-day moving average, which is the 64,500-65,500 level. This can be seen as the turning point of the bull-bear market. If it breaks through and stabilizes, then follow the market according to the situation. In the short term, look at the support level of 60,000-59,000 to enter long positions. If there is a violent market movement, wait for the market to stabilize and show a signal of bottoming out before entering. If the short-term price is broken, do not participate at that price level, and look for support at a lower level.
There is little advice for short-term trading because the volatility will be high with the support of the news. The risk comes first, and the profit comes later. More real-time advice will be sent internally. This article ends here today. We will see you next time. For more real-time advice on Bitcoin and Ethereum, find Gege. The advice is for reference only. Enter the market with good risk control, and manage profit and loss on your own. Consult specific strategies during trading hours.
People on the shore only know how wide and long the water is, only those immersed in the water know how deep and cool it is. The automatic screening mechanism allows the market to operate well. Price fluctuations are just superficial, behind which are the long and short sides. Only they know how cool and deep this "water" is.
By trader Gege, a friend willing to accompany you to rise again.
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