Cryptocurrency Market Performance

The total market value of cryptocurrencies is 1.24 trillion, with BTC accounting for 53.35%.

This week, the market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. From May 6th to 9th, the market continued to decline, and the weekend saw volatile market conditions. The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF this week is 112.62 million USD, with 1.168 billion USD inflow in the United States and 4.18 million USD outflow in Hong Kong.

The "Fear & Greed Index" for this week: showed "Neutral" for 2 days and "Greed" for 5 days.

The "Pi Cycle Top Indicator" shows that the recent price of BTC is close to the 111DMA, indicating a possible interim low point.

Historically, this indicator effectively selected the time of the market cycle peak within 3 days. In the past three market cycles, when the 111DMA moved upward and crossed the 350DMA x 2, we saw it coincide with the peak price of Bitcoin. Its accuracy over the past 7 years has been high.

This week, the altcoin CEL performed well, rising from $0.37 at the beginning of the week to $0.88 over the weekend. The reason for the rise is that on May 1st, Celsius Network destroyed 652 million CEL tokens it held, accounting for 94% of the total supply.

Current Insights

Review of Major Events of the Week

1. Tiger Securities launched virtual asset trading services.
2. On May 5th, Ethereum's daily burn volume hit a new low for the year.
3. On May 6th, 6 Bitcoin and Ethereum spot ETFs in Hong Kong had a total turnover of about 60.41 million Hong Kong dollars.
4. Puffer Finance mainnet launched on May 8th.
5. Binance CEO: Executives detained and held in Nigeria are innocent and must be released.
6. Ethereum Foundation transferred 1000 ETH to a multi-signature contract address, possibly for funding purposes.
7. Zeta Markets will airdrop tokens totaling 1% of the total supply to Solana ecosystem projects such as Jupiter.
8. Binance has implemented strict market monitoring procedures and will not tolerate any market abuse. In the past three years, it has delisted nearly 355,000 users involving transactions exceeding 25 trillion USD.
9. Bitcoin mining difficulty decreased by 5.6%, marking the largest drop since December 2022.
10. EOS Network Foundation plans to deploy a new EOS token economic model on the mainnet by the end of May and launch EOS staking rewards by the end of June.
11. Ethena released its 2024 roadmap to reshape and drive the integration of DeFi, CeFi, and TradFi.
12. EIGEN airdrop claiming and staking opened on May 11th.
13. Greeks.live: The cryptocurrency market was relatively weak this week, with trading volume continuing to decline.
14. Boston Fed: Despite the uncertainty of timing, it still believes that the Fed will cut interest rates once this year.

Macroeconomics

1. The US SEC delays decision on Invesco Galaxy Ethereum spot ETF application.
2. Cryptocurrency wallet provider Exodus postponed its listing on NYSE American due to SEC review.
3. CME FedWatch: Probability of the Fed maintaining interest rates in June is 91.1%.
4. The Fed reduced its balance sheet by 77 billion USD in April, bringing its asset size to below 7.4 trillion USD.

ETF

According to statistics, from May 6th to May 10th,

The net inflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in the United States was 1.168 billion USD. As of May 6th, GBTC had a total outflow of 17.633 billion USD and a total holding of 11.684 billion USD.

The net outflow of Bitcoin spot ETF in Hong Kong was 4.18 million USD, with a total holding of 262 million USD.

Future Outlook

Upcoming Events

1. Consensus 2024 will be held from May 29th to May 31st, organized by CoinDesk. It aims to gather developers, investors, and founders to address industry challenges.
2. Bitcoin Seoul 2024 will be held in Seoul, South Korea from May 29th to 31st, focusing on policy, finance, human rights, and technology, with a focus on Bitcoin.

Project Progress

1. BounceBit will launch its mainnet and airdrop BB tokens on May 13th. The airdrop will be distributed on the BounceBit Chain and completed before trading begins on Binance.
2. A Dutch judge will rule on Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev on May 14th. The Dutch prosecutor has requested a 64-month prison sentence for Tornado Cash developer Alexey Pertsev.
3. The snapshot time for the BNB Chain Season 2 airdrop alliance plan is 8:00 on May 15th Beijing time. Users who stake at least 1 BNB token on the BNB Smart Chain, or use the staking migration tool to migrate BNB tokens from the Beacon Chain to BSC, will qualify for Level 1. Staking at least 5 BNB tokens on BSC will qualify for Level 2.
4. Bitcoin Cash is expected to undergo a network upgrade at 20:00 on May 15th. Binance is expected to temporarily suspend token deposits and withdrawals on the Bitcoin Cash (BCH) network at 19:00 Beijing time to support its network upgrade.
5. FTX Digital has notified that according to Order No. 16 of the Company Liquidation Rules (2012) and the approval order issued by the Supreme Court of the Bahamas on January 22, 2024, clients and non-client creditors must submit their full details of name, contact information, and claims or details of their representatives to the Joint Official Liquidator (JOL) by May 15, 2024, or they will not be able to receive asset distributions.
6. The Starknet Foundation's Propulsion program plans to open the first batch of 20 game applications until May 17th to support mature teams in launching games on the Starknet mainnet or application chain. The program will match the network fees for game development costs and credit them to the game developer's account, with each game eligible for a maximum reward of 1 million USD within a year.
7. The Nigerian court has postponed the tax evasion lawsuit hearing for Binance executives to May 17th.

Token Unlocking

1. Moonbeam (GLMR) will unlock approximately 3.04 million tokens worth about 920,000 USD, accounting for 0.35% of the circulation, on May 11th at 8:00.
2. Aptos (APT) will unlock approximately 11.31 million tokens worth about 103 million USD, accounting for 2.64% of the circulation, on May 13th at 2:00.

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Hotcoin Research is the research department under Hotcoin, dedicated to providing objective, independent, and comprehensive analysis, aiming to become an authoritative insight platform in the cryptocurrency field. Analysts will regularly publish insightful articles: analyzing industry insights, in-depth analysis of potential projects in popular tracks, and tutorials on playing WEB3, striving to show users the most user-friendly and authentic WEB3.

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