This article is only a personal market view and does not constitute investment advice. If you operate according to this, you are responsible for gains and losses.

Last week was another volatile week, and the market rebounded less than expected, with prices falling again. Currently, BTC is around 62,000 and ETH is at 3180.

Personally, I still believe that 60,000 is the bottom of this pullback. Currently, from a trading perspective, the price is very cost-effective. Don't be too disheartened, the market is just a bit tricky. From the weekly chart, the continuous long lower shadow indicates that there is sufficient buying power near 60,000, optimistically viewing this as an accumulation process. The prolonged volatility here will create a sufficient area for chip turnover, preparing for the next market surge. Ultimately, it will test the financial confrontation between buyers and sellers.

Last week, I also shared a few indicators. From an emotional perspective, it is indeed the bottom area now, with market sentiment relatively low. Funding rates, contract premium rates, and selling profit rates are at their lowest levels since October last year.

In a normal uptrend environment, the total open interest of contracts should meet the "price-volume increase," meaning that as the price rises, the open interest should also rise synchronously. In the past half month, during the two rebounds, although the price rose, the total open interest of CME futures remained basically unchanged, showing weak and powerless rebounds that failed to turn into real uptrends. Subsequently, pay attention to changes in CME's total open interest (only focus on CME's total open interest, no need to pay attention to the total open interest of the entire cryptocurrency market), "price-volume increase" is the sign of a real uptrend.

In terms of time, pay attention to May 1st. That day is a Fibonacci time window. A direction may be chosen.

ETH performed more strongly than BTC last week. Sun Ge continued to buy openly, with an average purchase price around 3140. In February, he also openly bought around 2700.

Similarly, keep an eye on the CME open interest of ETH. "Price-volume increase" is the normal performance of an uptrend.

This week, there are many macroeconomic data releases in the United States, especially the interest rate decision in the early hours of May 2nd. Although not cutting interest rates is already certain, the key is to see Powell's statement. Combined with the earlier mentioned May 1st being a time window, this is likely to be a turning point.

In addition, since the start of the market in October last year, the trend of BTC (orange line in the chart) and the yield spread of US 1Y-10Y bonds (candlestick chart) have shown a significant positive correlation. As the spread widens, the price rises; as the spread narrows, the price falls. On March 13th, the BTC price began to decline, corresponding to the narrowing of the spread.

Today, the spread has started to widen again, so the market may start again. Subsequently, you can also pay attention to the spread trend.

Finally, it should be added that if unfortunately it falls below 60,000, all long leverages must be cleared, especially leverages on altcoins.

Follow me and make the maximum trend profit with the minimum operations.

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