Yesterday we talked about a viewpoint that BTC continued to fall, and whether 59600 could hold and whether there would be an opportunity to return after breaking through. In the short term, there is a rebound, especially with the news that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange confirmed the launch of spot virtual asset ETFs on April 30th, with the Ethereum ETF launching earlier than in the United States, and Franklin Templeton launching an Ethereum ETF listed on DTCC. It is worth noting that the Hong Kong Stock Exchange will launch BTC and ETH ETFs on April 30th, deliberately launching the day before the May Day holiday from May 1st to 5th, when trading is not allowed. Is this to stabilize the market and attract foreign institutions to boost the market?
Sun Ge, James Fickel, and others continue to buy the dip in Ethereum. The Hong Kong ETF will be listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange tomorrow, and Australia is expected to launch Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs by the end of the year. ETH rebounded to a high of 3357 and then fell back. The rebound failed to reach 3678, so an independent market trend has not been established.
As for the Franklin Templeton Ethereum ETF listed on DTCC, many people think it is similar to Bitcoin, so the probability is high. However, what needs attention is the financial game between China and the United States. China can never be the leader due to the influence of the Confucian ideology for thousands of years. First, it lost the pricing power of BTC, then BTC ETFs were issued, mining machines went overseas, and exchanges were delisted. Now China is taking action. China also does not want the United States to dominate alone. The United States uses the dollar to harvest the world. Just look at the current exchange rate battle in Asia. Stocks, bonds, and exchange rates are all declining. Japan's exchange rate has fallen to a multi-decade low, and government bonds have shrunk by 50%. A cabbage costs over 2000 yen, equivalent to 95 RMB. Inflation and rising prices will continue domestically.
Despite the continuous positive news, the market is weak. If negative news comes out, how should we respond? The closure of the First Republic Bank of China and the seizure of 61,000 bitcoins in the UK were mentioned before. News can only accelerate the icing on the cake, but cannot change the current downward trend.
Bitcoin The daily chart continues to decline. Currently, the support is at 62400. If the support cannot hold, it will definitely test the previous low of 59600, and the probability of breaking through is very high. This has been the train of thought for some time. Several important resistance levels for the rebound are 64500, 67000, and 68200. The support below is 59600 and 60600. If it breaks through, it will test the support at 53000 and 56000.
4-hour chart The decline below 67000 continues in the downward channel, and the probability of breaking through this channel is high. It will once again test the bottom support. Be cautious about the downward breakthrough. A sharp drop from a high position is a washout, while a downward trend is actual selling.
Support: Resistance:
Ethereum Ethereum rebounded yesterday but was brought down again today. The ETH/BTC exchange rate has returned to a retracement within the 0.051 range. If the bottom is not broken, there is a chance for a continued rebound. The premise is that Bitcoin stabilizes and the support is not broken. If Ethereum leads, there is still a chance. The key support for Ethereum is ******.
Support: Resistance:
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