The recent hype surrounding the Bitcoin halving has been going on for two days. After the halving was completed, the market did not seem to experience significant fluctuations as expected. Excessive expectations will only lead to greater disappointment; speculation ultimately cannot represent the truth. The more intense the speculation, the more likely it is to backfire, just like the significant drop in the price of Ideal MEGA upon its listing. Buy the expectation, sell the fact. The impact of the Bitcoin halving is not immediate, but rather in the future!
After the halving, what will happen to Bitcoin next? Here is a brief personal opinion.
Firstly, the Bitcoin halving refers to the halving of block rewards, not the halving of quantity. The total amount remains constant at 21 million. Based on historical patterns, after the previous three halvings, there was a period of correction followed by the start of a bull market. While this pattern provides some reference, whether it will repeat is uncertain. However, what is different this time before the halving is that Bitcoin has already reached a new historical high of 73,800. If this is the digestion of the anticipated positive news, then the market is likely to start to decline after the halving. However, I believe that the current bull market rise is more based on a phase of upward movement following the bear market decline from the high of 69,000 in 2021. The halving just happens to be at the current bull market's time point, and there is no so-called digestion of positive expectations, as the formal rise has already formed since September last year, and the new high of 73,800 is a result of the trend.
In the long term, Bitcoin is still in a bull market rise in the larger cycle. Currently, it is oscillating within the high range with 73,000 as resistance and 59,600 as support. The oscillation in the upward trend is generally a consolidation of the second rise. After the consolidation, I believe that Bitcoin will see a higher breakthrough. It may be exaggerated to break through 100,000, but in the short term, it is more practical to rely on the support at the bottom of 59,600 to break through the key level of 80,000.
In the short term, we have already completed bottom fishing at the 60,000 level, and the price has rebounded after three consecutive retracements, reaching as high as 65,700 in the morning. This means that our mid-term long position has gained at least 5,700 points, which is quite impressive. This time, I will not immediately look at breaking through the high resistance of 73,000. In the first stage, our target is 64,800-65,800, and 64,800 has already been broken through. In the short term, we will continue to look at 66,800. This is the position where we will execute the reduction of our mid-term long position. The watershed on the daily chart is 68,000. We will judge the possibility of the price continuing to rise and testing the top resistance near 73,000 based on the breakthrough and pressure situation at this level. If it falls below 59,600, it will definitely accelerate the decline. However, the breach of 59,600 does not mean the end of the bull market. On the contrary, the further it falls, the more opportunities there are for bold layouts, especially for those who want to invest in spot markets, alternative coins, and so on.
In the short term, there is obvious pressure above 65,400, and the price has been oscillating around 65,000. In the morning, it rose and then fell back, but did not form a continuous decline. The key point for the day is to see if it can stabilize above 65,400. If it can effectively stabilize, then 66,800 will be basically stable.
This article is an original work by myself, Xiao Feng. The above analysis is only my personal opinion and is for reference only. Investment carries risks, and entering the market requires caution. Please indicate the source if reposted!
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