Original | Odaily Planet Daily
Author | Nan Zhi
Editor | Qin Xiaofeng
On April 20th, Beijing time, Bitcoin ushered in the fourth halving in history, and the block reward will be reduced from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. Based on the current price of $65,000, it is estimated that the halving will reduce the selling pressure by $10 billion per year, thereby boosting the price of BTC.
However, due to changes in the international situation and the early digestion of the halving expectations in the past week, the price of BTC has experienced a significant pullback, dropping below $60,000 at one point. This has added more uncertainty to the future trend of BTC.
What are the predictions of various institutions and researchers about the market after the halving? Odaily Planet Daily will summarize their views and the logic behind them in this article.
Bullish Camp
CZ: BTC price will hit historical highs multiple times within a year after the halving.
CZ stated that Bitcoin halving is different from stock splits. Some people asking such questions indicates that we are still in the early stages. He then attached a chart to illustrate his views on what might happen before and after the Bitcoin halving in 2023, and mentioned being happy about the halving. Based on the experience of the previous three halving events, CZ judged:
1) There were various opinions in the months before the halving;
2) The price will not double overnight after the halving;
3) Within a year after the halving, the BTC price will hit historical highs multiple times.
Su Zhu: Extremely bullish in April
Su Zhu, co-founder of Three Arrows Capital, stated, "I really don't understand the reason for being bearish at this time. Structurally, April is extremely bullish. The Bitcoin halving is coming, the Ethereum ETF is about to be launched, and ordinary people are waking up from a long sleep. We are still in the early stages."
SkyBridge Capital CEO: The halving will be a short-term catalyst for price increase
Anthony Scaramucci, CEO of SkyBridge Capital, stated that the recently approved 10 spot Bitcoin ETFs are "sales machines," and he believes that these products will continue to stimulate the demand for crypto assets from retail and institutional investors. Scaramucci also believes that the upcoming Bitcoin halving event will be the main catalyst for the short-term price increase of Bitcoin, and added that he is very fond of Solana (SOL).
Wintermute: Bullish on Bitcoin ecosystem assets
Wintermute's OTC trading department stated, "There are large untapped pools of capital in the Bitcoin ecosystem that are still dormant, and it is surprising that traders have very few assets with open exposure. If capital begins to enter the Bitcoin ecosystem, tokens such as RUNE, STX, and ORDI may significantly benefit and perform well."
Jason, OKX Web3 Wallet: A new bull market will begin within a year after the halving
Jason, the product manager of the Bitcoin product at OKX Web3 Wallet, believes that in the short term, the price of Bitcoin may experience significant fluctuations. "Historical data shows that the price may not immediately rise at the beginning of the halving, as the market has already made some anticipatory adjustments before the event. However, with the new supply rhythm and market adaptation after the halving, the price may gradually reflect this change in scarcity."
He added that in the long term, the halving is often seen as a catalyst for the increase in Bitcoin's value. With the reduction in mining rewards, a small amount of new Bitcoin entering the market may play a key role in the supply and demand dynamics, supporting price increases. In addition, as cryptocurrencies gradually gain wider acceptance and usage, this may also have a positive impact on the long-term trend of Bitcoin. Based on historical experience, within six months to a year after the halving, BTC is highly likely to start a new bull market cycle.
Furthermore, Jason believes that more attention should be focused on the ecosystem, such as BTC Layer2 or some new protocols. "Currently, most of the market's liquidity has intentionally or unintentionally shifted to the BTC ecosystem, coupled with the upcoming appearance of Rune, the public opinion on Bitcoin halving, and the continuous iteration of XRC… It is unreasonable for the BTC ecosystem not to be hot. I believe that BTC Layer2 and new protocols will probably be the focus of the next narrative."
Bitget: Peak of $150,000 by the end of this year to the middle of next year
Cryptocurrency trading platform Bitget believes that based on historical data, the halving leads to a reduction in Bitcoin supply, which will drive the price of Bitcoin up when demand remains stable or increases. This year's market has added key elements with the approval of Bitcoin spot ETFs, making the future bull market more certain. Whether it is traders, exchanges, project parties, or mining communities, they will pay special attention to the impact of this event on the market before and after the Bitcoin halving.
"In the short term (1 to 6 months), BTC may experience a monthly-level pullback, but $40,000 may become the low point of this round of the bull market. It is suggested to observe the support at $53,000 and $60,000, with a short-term target of $90,000. In the long term (over 6 months), as the Federal Reserve begins to cut interest rates and market liquidity is fully released, BTC may reach a peak of $150,000 by the end of this year to the middle of next year."
George, Founder of AscendEX: Long-term performance usually shows an upward trend after the halving
George, founder of AscendEX (formerly BitMax), believes that in the short term, the price of Bitcoin may experience significant fluctuations. In the early stages of the halving, the market may have partially reflected its expectations in the price. After the actual halving, short-term trading may be affected by speculative buying and selling. In addition, short-term prices may also be affected by macroeconomic factors, industry news, or technical updates. Geopolitical tensions will also have a certain impact.
Based on historical data, Bitcoin's long-term performance usually shows an upward trend after the halving. In theory, the halving leads to a reduction in new supply, and if demand remains unchanged or increases, according to the law of supply and demand, the price may rise. However, this also depends on overall market conditions, technological developments, regulatory policies, and other factors.
XT.COM: Bitcoin price can reach $100,000 after the halving
Cryptocurrency platform XT.COM's analysis believes that based on several sets of data, the price of Bitcoin usually starts to rise about a year before the halving event and reaches its peak about a year after the halving event; the fourth halving occurred in April 2024, and the next high point will appear in April to May 2025. By using the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model—a model based on the relationship between supply and demand, using Bitcoin's stock and flow to calculate its value. The S2F model predicts that the price of Bitcoin will significantly rise after the halving event in 2024 and reach a level of about $100,000 in 2025.
Nexo Co-founder: Based on historical halving trends, BTC price may double within 8 months
Antoni Trenchev, co-founder of the cryptocurrency loan institution Nexo, stated that based on previous halving situations, the price of Bitcoin should double within no more than 8 months.
Stronghold Digital Mining: BTC price will significantly rise in the next two years
Greg Beard, CEO of Stronghold Digital Mining, stated that although people's enthusiasm for the Bitcoin halving may be somewhat exaggerated, the recent rebound of Bitcoin is "far from just a momentary frenzy." With institutional acceptance, Bitcoin is maturing. In the next two years, the price of Bitcoin will significantly rise.
Neutral Camp
Mango Network: Halving does not mean an immediate price surge
Mango Network, a Layer1 public chain based on the Move language, believes that from the supply perspective, the halving helps to continue pushing up the price of BTC assets, but the halving does not mean an immediate price surge. The oscillating trend after this round's all-time high (ATH) is quite different from the continuous upward trend after the previous all-time high. This already indicates that the short-term price will continue to oscillate, using time to digest huge trapped and profit-taking positions, lifting the average holding cost through a longer period of oscillation, and achieving maximum turnover.
The long-term price trend completely depends on the depth of this short-term range, the cooperation of volume, and the degree of indicator repair. In other words, the short-term trend after the halving will determine the long-term trend. So far, after this round of BTC's new high, mainstream coins have not followed to set new highs, indicating that the market is still not strong enough. This divergent trend indicates the existence of market divergence and may also mean that BTC will lead the development of the crypto market with an independent market trend.
In addition, the background of this halving is quite different from before, with the emergence of Bitcoin spot ETFs, BRC-20, and Layer2. These brand-new financial instruments, protocol standards, and ecological environments are changing the native narrative of BTC. The change in the native narrative will have many potential impacts and development directions, some positive, but also possibly negative, requiring continuous observation.
CryptoQuant: Halving has no significant impact
A research report released by CryptoQuant indicates that the supply shock caused by the Bitcoin halving will not have a huge impact on the price of Bitcoin, as many investors expected.
The report states, "The impact of the halving has been diminishing, as the amount of newly issued Bitcoin relative to the amount of Bitcoin sold by long-term holders is decreasing." Instead, the "key driver" of the impact on the price of Bitcoin after this halving will be the increasing demand from investors holding a large amount of Bitcoin.
CryptoQuant stated that the demand from whales holding 1,000 to 10,000 Bitcoins has grown to "the highest level ever," with a month-on-month increase of 11%.
Although the halving will reduce the supply of Bitcoin, there have indeed been several instances of long-term holders' monthly demand exceeding the supply during the period from 2021 to 2023. However, the gap between the two is much larger now than ever before, indicating that the impact of the halving on the price trend of Bitcoin may not be as strong as in the past under continued monthly supply shortages. The amount of Bitcoin accumulated by long-term holders each month is about seven times the amount of new Bitcoin entering the market.
The report states, "The balance of long-term holders is increasing by as much as 200,000 Bitcoins per month, far exceeding the issuance of about 28,000 Bitcoins. After the halving, the monthly issuance of Bitcoin will decrease to about 14,000."
In addition, the total issuance of Bitcoin has plummeted to only 4% of the total available supply, significantly smaller than before the previous Bitcoin halvings, where the issuance accounted for 69%, 27%, and 10% of the total available supply, respectively.
Marathon CEO: Production reduction has a minor impact on price
Fred Thiel, CEO of the publicly listed mining company Marathon, stated, "I believe that the approval and listing of the Bitcoin spot ETF has been a huge success, attracting capital and essentially leading to the rally that should have occurred three to six months after the halving."
He added that this halving event will reduce the daily supply of Bitcoin by about 450 coins, which may have some minor impact on the price. "As a Bitcoin mining company, we are very excited about the upcoming halving, and this time the price did not drop before the halving, but instead rose. So everyone is clearly maximizing this."
QCP Capital: Expected to remain in the range of $64,000 to $73,000
Cryptocurrency market maker QCP Capital pointed out in its latest market report that the emphasized downside skew in the ETH risk reversal has been confirmed as an accurate early indicator of a downturn, possibly due to its sensitivity to market anxiety in the crypto market, as speculators of altcoins tend to use ETH put options for hedging.
At the macro level, news of Iran's threat of retaliation against Israel triggered a sell-off of global risk assets, causing BTC to drop below $60,000, and altcoins to generally plummet. This change caught the market off guard, with perpetual contract funding rates being pushed to below -40% into negative territory, the lowest since the beginning of this year. Negative funding rates also suppressed the forward curve, with short-term yields falling below 10%. After this decline, BTC has returned to the center of the tightening range of $64,000 to $73,000, and QCP expects it may be difficult for it to break out of this range in the short term.
Deutsche Bank: Halving partially priced in, no big rally expected afterward
Deutsche Bank (DB) stated in a research report that it is expected that the halving of Bitcoin rewards in the coming days has already been partially digested by the market, and a significant rally in prices is not likely to occur after the halving. The report analyzed that the price of Bitcoin is expected to continue to remain high, due to market expectations for the future approval of a spot Ethereum ETF, future central bank interest rate cuts, and regulatory changes. In addition, with the surge in Layer2 solutions and DeFi activities, the practicality of the network has been enhanced, and the prospects for the entire Bitcoin ecosystem and the broader cryptocurrency field are beginning to become exceptionally favorable.
Morph Co-founder: Bitcoin halving may already be reflected in its price
Azeem Khan, co-founder of the L2 project Morph, stated that the price of Bitcoin may already reflect the impact of the halving. He believes that since the approval of the Bitcoin spot ETF, institutional capital has been flowing in for several months. Even before this, a large amount of liquidity had entered the market, without the traditional signs of retail user (retail) purchases. Azeem Khan stated that institutions are not foolish and may have already bought in early.
Santiment: Market may bottom out before or shortly after BTC halving
Blockchain analytics platform Santiment stated in a market insight article that "historically, the price trend of BTC has been opposite to the expectations of the general traders," and added that the market may bottom out before or shortly after the halving.
Santiment's tracked data shows that since the end of March, the mentions of "bull market" or "bull cycle" on crypto social media have been decreasing. At the same time, the mentions of "bear market" or "bear cycle" have been consistently increasing.
Bearish Camp
Arthur Hayes: Caution in April, bull market starts in May
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes predicted that from April 15 to May 1, the annual U.S. tax filing (April 15 is the tax deadline) will drain market liquidity, combined with the continued Fed balance sheet reduction, and the potential short-term overselling of Bitcoin expected on April 20 due to the halving event, the market may experience extreme weakness. However, starting from May 1, with the Fed slowing down the pace of balance sheet reduction and the U.S. Treasury using funds to stimulate the market, a new round of crypto bull market is expected to begin.
Hayes advised investors to be cautious in April and to deploy boldly after May 1. He revealed that he has already closed positions and made profits on tokens such as MEW, SOL, and NMT, and transferred funds to the USDe stablecoin on the Ethena platform for staking to earn returns.
Hayes stated that he will not be trading from now until May 1, and he expects to have sufficient funds to establish various crypto asset positions by May, preparing for a true bull market.
10x Research: $5 Billion Miner Sell-off Expected After Halving
10x Research stated that as Bitcoin miners prepare to sell off most of their Bitcoin inventory, the cryptocurrency market may face significant challenges during a six-month summer calm period. These inventories have been carefully built up over the past few months and may disrupt market dynamics.
The typical scenario before the halving (April 20) is that miners hoard BTC, leading to an imbalance in supply and demand, followed by a rise in the price of Bitcoin. Especially altcoins may be the first to be affected by this situation. Bitcoin often rises by 32% during the halving period. However, according to their calculations, miners may liquidate $5 billion worth of BTC after the halving. This suspenseful sell-off may continue for four to six months, explaining why Bitcoin may consolidate in the coming months, just as it did after previous halvings.
JPMorgan Analyst: Bitcoin Price May Not Rise After Halving
A JPMorgan analyst stated, "Restricting supply sounds like a move to stimulate a bull market, but it's not that simple, BTC is currently in an overbought phase." At the same time, the analyst believes that the lack of venture capital in the crypto space will also lead to a decrease in the value of Bitcoin.
Conclusion
From the above review, we can see that most institutions still have confidence in the post-halving market and believe that the halving will usher in a new bull market, potentially challenging $100,000. Of course, there are also institutions and researchers who maintain a neutral or even pessimistic sentiment about the post-halving market trend, believing that the halving expectation has already been priced in and will not have a significant impact. Those with a bearish view, based on the perspective of miner sell-off, believe that there is short-term pressure for fund recovery, which will suppress the price of Bitcoin.
For more insights on future trends from various institutions, Odaily will continue to provide updates.
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