On the afternoon of April 15th, AICoin researchers conducted a live graphic and text sharing session titled "Selecting Altcoins, Discovering Hidden Investment Opportunities Against the Market! (Free Membership)" in the AICoin PC-end-Group Chat-Live. Below is a summary of the live content.
I. Coin Selection Techniques in the Current Market
1. Current Market Conditions
Due to changes in the Middle East situation and factors such as lower-than-expected interest rate cuts, the cryptocurrency market experienced a pullback last week.
2. Reference to Popular Sector Concepts, Selecting Leading or Well-Growing Tokens
The market narrative and capital flow are more prevalent in these sectors. Whether it's a new concept or an old project, they all need a certain narrative space to explain their value. Currently, there are several popular concepts in the market that need attention:
(1) AI: TAO, RNDR, FET, ARKM, WLD…
(2) RWA: MKR, ONDO, POLYX, TRU, PENDLE, OM…
(3) Restaking: ENA, ETHFI, unreleased projects…
(4) BTC ecosystem: CKB, ORDI, STX… (5) Solana ecosystem: SOL, JTO, JUP, RAY, TNSR… Leading tokens mainly rely on market value judgment, while growth requires a closer look at project data (TVL, on-chain activity, investors, etc.).
It is recommended to take a look at DeFillama, which has data for most protocols.
Investors can check Rootdata or Crunchbase.
II. Pullback Recovery Time
From 8:00 PM on April 12th to around 4:00 AM on April 14th (UTC+8), BTC dropped from around $70900 to below $60000, with a maximum decline of 14.53% within the period. It has since rebounded to around $65000, showing an almost 8% rebound from the recent low. How long will it take to continue rising to above $70000? This cannot be determined for now. However, due to changes in the Middle East situation, the rise in risk aversion sentiment and the impact of the volatility of the US stock market on the cryptocurrency market will gradually deepen. Whether "digital gold" can become a true safe-haven asset like gold remains to be verified over time.
In the current price volatility, altcoins outside of Bitcoin have experienced more intense price fluctuations. Altcoins that can quickly recover from pullbacks indicate resilience and rapid rebound, effectively reducing the impact on wallet gains and losses.
1. Using AICoin's Price Change Data
Taking the past week's data as an example, to determine the pullback recovery time, AICoin's price change data can be used for screening:
Among the top 500 in market capitalization, altcoins with a price change of more than -10% in the past seven days and a trading volume of over $100 million in the past 24 hours include: NEO, TON, ONG, ONDO, PENDLE, ENA, QTUM, ONT, JASMY, OM, BLZ, ORBS, RNDR, CKB, etc.
The cryptocurrency market has been in a declining state over the past week, with a greater decline from 8:00 PM on April 12th to around 4:00 AM on April 14th (UTC+8).
Looking at the price changes over a seven-day period, if the price can remain positive, it indicates that the token is less affected by the market around last Friday, with less decline or a faster rebound.
The green arrows represent the pullback recovery process after last Friday.
For example, after a nearly 39% pullback, ARB's price rebounded partially, but it has not yet returned to the price before last Friday.
On the other hand, leading tokens in popular RWA sectors like ONDO recovered very quickly.
In the altcoin pullback market, tokens with shorter pullback recovery times will have more obvious advantages.
2. Using a Seven-Day Perspective to Find Tokens with Faster Pullback Recovery
This is the template for using AICoin's price change data for screening:
Among the top 500 in market capitalization, altcoins with a price change of more than -10% in the past seven days and a trading volume of over $100 million in the past 24 hours.
For shorter-term recovery, it is necessary to look at the price K-line for the past 1 day or 3 days.
By combining the seven-day attention ranking of KOL (social media popularity), it can be observed that two altcoins have been highly popular in the recent market: ENA, ONDO.
III. Market Interactivity
Changes in the Middle East situation will further affect the price of gold due to risk aversion sentiment. Short-term tradable gold-related tokens include PAXG and XAUT (Tether Gold).
Altcoins are greatly influenced by BTC, and the impact of Bitcoin on the entire cryptocurrency ecosystem is significant. Therefore, with the launch of spot BTC ETF, the correlation between the data of the US stock market night session and the trend of BTC is high. In addition to Coinbase, MicroStrategy, Marathon, and CleanSpark, a few cryptocurrency-related stocks, it is also important to pay attention to large tech stocks.
Tokens related to the SOL ecosystem that have been speculated on include PYTH (oracle), JUP, ORCA, RAY (DEX), TNSR (NFT exchange). Next, it is important to closely monitor popular trends, and if speculating on meme coins, pay attention to robots and DEX.
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