I just finished a 3-day trip to the Hong Kong Web3 conference and have many thoughts and feelings. Here are some brief reflections during my spare time:

1) From the lively atmosphere of the conference, it is clear that the market is in the early stages of a bull market. There is a strong sense of participation, but not excessive FOMO. Despite the recent market volatility and the delayed expectations of the Fed rate cut, increasing uncertainties in the bull market, the enthusiasm of primary market builders remains strong. This forms a solid and enduring foundation for this round of the bull market.

2) The main venue, sub-venues, thematic sharing, panels, and community-led activities all demonstrate a decentralized, specialized, and community-oriented form. It's difficult to determine which is the mainstream. Some believe Solana could flip Ethereum, others think CKB could drive BTC layer2 prosperity, and some are delving into AI+DePin for alpha. Of course, many are persistently focused on Ethereum layer2. It seems that everyone has their own "mainstream," but there hasn't been a consensus or widespread FOMO "main uptrend" yet. The entire industry is in a state of flux, with no clear leader emerging, which confirms that we are still in the early stages of the bull market.

3) After socializing outside the conference, the prominence of CEX exchanges seems to have diminished. Perhaps they have retreated for certain reasons. The conspicuous presence of Western models and widespread shilling has decreased, allowing for a more nourishing intellectual atmosphere. Although there are still numerous technical, community, and industry narratives that can be overwhelming, it's evident that the stories are being told seriously, and the market's aesthetic has been elevated. After the approval of the Bitcoin ETF, what has been mainstreamed is not just BTC itself, but also the mindset of Crypto practitioners. The market is not afraid of storytelling, but rather of being treated like fools.

4) The narrative surrounding "chains" remains crucial. Whether it's ETH layer2, BTC layer2, high-performance layer1, parallel EVM, modular chain development, chain abstraction and interoperability, AI+Crypto, ZK, DePIN, etc., it seems that each narrative direction is focused on the development of "chain" infrastructure. On the surface, all industry participants are focusing on "chain" development narratives, while application landing seems to have stagnated. However, the application landing direction is actually quite lively, but only narratives that reach a phenomenon like Stepn can gain attention. Focusing on applications would involve the internet-style processes of user acquisition, retention, and growth, and the current market's mass adoption level is far from being able to drive application development. On the contrary, B-end services, with their modular resource integration and cross-ecosystem liquidity using chain abstraction, offer rich scalability. It's not so much that the market prefers B-end stories, but rather that at this stage, these are the only stories that can be told.

5) There is a noticeable competition between the new love of BTC layer2 and the old love of Ethereum layer2. Vitalik's vision of a layer2-centric narrative is appealing, but in terms of token prices and actual delivery expectations, it still falls short. This is why BTC layer2 has captured a significant new market expectation. Therefore, without a doubt, BTC layer2 is benefiting from the unmet expectations of Ethereum layer2. This internal competition may seem like reinventing the wheel, but it's important to note that the user base for BTC ecosystem and Ethereum ecosystem are not entirely overlapping. Under BTC's strong consensus, this round of bull market may be driven by new user acquisition. In the long run, BTC layer2 can develop a unique UTXO architecture route, and can also integrate with the mature Ethereum layer2 ecosystem. When we take Layer2 as the basis, BTC layer2 and Ethereum layer2 are not in a life-or-death competition, and it's clear that both camps are embracing each other.

6) There were no particularly innovative and inspiring alpha projects seen. Some say this is a stage for Eastern forces to flex their muscles, while Western forces are concentrated at the Token2049 conference in Dubai a few days later. In terms of narrative direction, AI, DePIN, ZK, and parallel EVM are more appealing to Western projects, especially when these projects are introduced to the Chinese-speaking community, their valuations skyrocket. In terms of innovative vitality, the inscription market, BTC layer2, and DePIN hardware mining, despite the friction of rug pulls, the wealth effect and user acquisition capabilities of Eastern forces are indeed driving the industry forward. Instead of saying that Eastern and Western forces are secretly competing, it's more accurate to say that they have missed out on each other's growth. The Eastern inscription and Western MEME forces will eventually form a combined force after a certain main uptrend.

7) There is a noticeable increase in the influence of high-quality KOLs, surpassing some VCs to some extent. This fundamentally stems from a change in the VC's approach. VCs are now collaborating with project teams to incubate projects and rallying exchanges to accumulate projects. In this round, VCs have clearly adopted a "old cabbage" mentality. The previous strategy of locking up for a long time and dreaming stories no longer works. To some extent, the money that wants to escape at any time has become a hot potato. Most excellent projects are not simply obtained with money, and KOLs who possess both primary investment capabilities and secondary marketing capabilities have become highly sought after. Therefore, the rise of KOLs is not unfounded, and it effectively supplements the weakening of VC's influence in the primary market.

8) Under the influence of narratives such as restaking and modularization, the ability of projects to integrate resources (La Bang Jie Pai) has become increasingly prominent. This has become a soft power display for projects, beyond the mainstream technology and development narratives. It should be noted that the ability of project teams to accumulate resources and relationships will become a strong support for their development expectations. Once a project has strong resources and relationships, from a business perspective, it has already won at the starting line. When telling difficult landing stories, which type of project will users prefer? The answer is clear.

9) This round has seen many stories of old trees sprouting new shoots, which I personally find delightful. Although new chains now have the conditions and environment for easy deployment, the resurgence of old chains carries the earnest expectations of communities and is also an expectation that should be fulfilled. If old chains can tell new stories, revitalize communities, reach consensus, and keep pace with new chains, I personally hope to see more old chains rise.

10) There are always various FUD voices at every conference, which are often just gossip. FUD about TVL false prosperity, DeFi mining income dilemmas, potential exchange pitfalls, etc., are meaningless if you agree that resource integration is the current market trend. FUD about TVL falsification is simply an act of exposing the industry's vulnerabilities. Uncertainty and black swan events are difficult to avoid, but projects and teams with the ability to navigate bull and bear markets will surely mature and stabilize in this round. FUD cannot kill projects, it only adds some market noise.

Note: The thoughts and reflections above represent my personal experience and observations at the conference, and may not fully reflect the overall picture of the Hong Kong Web3 conference. However, I hope the industry can shed the labels of being niche and fraudulent, and gradually move towards a more mainstream and mature direction. I hope that one day I won't understand this industry, but will always be able to feel its growth.

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