Market Review

The road to a bull market is long and arduous. After experiencing resistance in its second attempt to reach a new high, Bitcoin suffered another heavy blow in price due to the impact of GBTC turnover. The price once fell more than 7,000 points, breaking through the key support level of 65,000 and dropping to 64,500 before rebounding from the low. Currently, the price is in an awkward range, encountering resistance from the moving averages above and lacking strong support below. With the halving only 16 days away, historical data shows that each halving has led to remarkable price surges. However, unlike previous halvings which occurred during bear markets, the upcoming halving is different. It remains to be seen whether Bitcoin, in the current bull market, can still achieve astonishing price surges.

Intraday Analysis

With a series of recent statements from the FOMC, the macro financial market still remains uncertain. It is too early to determine whether the inflation data revealed by recent seasonal influences is only a temporary fluctuation. We still need to wait for a series of subsequent releases of employment and price index data to reflect a more realistic economic situation. However, the release of data that exceeds expectations recently has led us to be cautious in choosing the direction of the market.

Referring to the market, the recent downturn in Bitcoin has caused uncertainty in the three-day and weekly chart levels, making it difficult to determine whether it is a high-level consolidation or a substantial trend reversal. Therefore, we should focus on the breakthroughs of support and resistance levels in smaller timeframes. To determine whether the recent low of 64,500 has formed a bottom, we should first focus on the breakthrough of the 4-hour MA120 line and the level near 67,500-68,000. If the breakthrough fails and encounters resistance, the market will face a second round of probing, which corresponds to the daily MA60 line support, near the previous low of 61,000, and sets the stage for a new long-term layout. However, if it falls below 60,000, it indicates that the bears will further increase their selling pressure, and Bitcoin may return to below 55,000.

For more strategic guidance, follow AICoin on Weibo, where Ye Shanshan, a financial analyst with 500,000 followers, provides blockchain analysis.

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