Tracking real-time hotspots in the currency circle, seizing the best trading opportunities. Today is Sunday, March 17, 2024, and I am Yibo! We are not predicting trades, but actually observing market fluctuations (narrowing, spreading), structure (market batch structure), and sentiment (external market such as US stocks, the US dollar, etc.). As a trader, you (through trading) affect prices, and prices also affect your emotions and behavior.

March has entered the latter half. Looking back at the first half of March, in just two weeks, the cryptocurrency market has created numerous milestones. First, Bitcoin broke through the historical high of $69,000 in 2021, liberating trapped coin holders worldwide. It then continued to refresh historical highs. Ethereum completed the Cancun upgrade and broke through $4,000. At this moment, Ethereum's strong rebound seems to give a sense of positive realization. In fact, this also opens up the rising space for the speculation of Ethereum spot ETF approval. The cryptocurrency market is a news-driven market. The strength of the H.K. sector yesterday is reflected in the Hong Kong Web3 Carnival in April, and the strength of the AI artificial intelligence sector is reflected in Nvidia's AI conference on the 18th. Recent fan tokens also show signs of strength. The opening moments of the European Cup and Copa America will be in June! The highly anticipated next week's Federal Reserve interest rate meeting is coming: March 21 (2 a.m. Beijing time): Fed interest rate decision, press conference, dot plot, economic forecast. The market is generally worried that the Fed will continue to raise interest rates. If it does, then the current market's significant pullback is an overreaction. If the result comes out, it will be equivalent to the landing of negative news, and the entire market's floating capital will be cleared.

In this bull market, the most eye-catching project is SOL. The fundamental reason is that Wall Street capital controls the majority of tokens, and its decentralized nature results in low transaction fees and a good user experience. Therefore, many star MEME tokens have emerged on SOL this year, with many meme tokens experiencing thousandfold or ten-thousandfold increases, such as bonk and WIF. Developing the SOL ecosystem and SOL chain is also to compete with Ethereum and fill their public chain gap. In the last round, many domestic self-media outlets were pessimistic about SOL, including myself. This was inevitable because at that time, there was a lot of information and data showing problems with this public chain. At this point, it seems that everyone was deceived, but we still need to turn back in time. With the expectation of benchmarking against Ethereum, we can no longer ignore it. The SOL ecosystem is definitely a top priority in our layout for this bull market.

Bitcoin's overnight price weakened again in the early morning, forming a downward trend after a rise to the 70,200 area yesterday, and then sharply falling to the 64,800 level in the morning, followed by a rebound. From a technical perspective, the daily price has continued to decline, breaking through the middle support, and has not shown much recovery, still maintaining a weak recovery. The selling volume continues to be solid on the upside, and the moving averages have been continuously diverging downward. On the daily level, there is still room for the price and space to continue to explore lower levels. Looking at the short-term cycle, the price is weakly consolidating and probing around the lower channel of operation, and the downward space of the operating channel continues to open. The selling volume is replacing the buying volume, and the moving averages still maintain a downward divergence. There is a certain demand for a short-term rebound at the moment. It has been emphasized that strategies have timeliness, and it is most important to control risks and follow the trend. In addition, with frequent changes between long and short positions and the extremely unstable coin price, it is best to be cautious in operations. Personally, I suggest focusing on shorting at high rebounds in the 66,700-67,200 area, targeting the 65,000-64,500 area for short-term trading, and looking at the 63,000 level for medium-term trading.

Ethereum's trend yesterday continued to decline, breaking through the previous trend line. After testing 3,800 in the morning, it fell all the way to 3,480 in the morning and started to rebound. The current price is oscillating around 3,550, and a key pattern is the correction's retracement range, which will not break the previous low point or the previous support level. The daily middle track is the defensive line for the bulls. If it is not broken, it is bullish; if it is broken, the retracement range will be increased, and there will be a second correction. The current slow rhythm of oscillating and falling has a slow bearish sentiment, and the entire retracement process does not show a high level of resistance from the bulls. The recommended operation is to short directly at 3,590-3,620, with a target focus on 3,480-3,450.

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