Watch the video: Bitcoin Market Analysis 2024.03.13
BTC Monthly K-line:
From the monthly perspective, Bitcoin has already reached a new all-time high, and more than half of the month has passed, with a high probability of closing with a bullish candlestick. There are 7 consecutive bullish candlesticks at the monthly level, breaking Bitcoin's historical record. Previously, when there were 6 consecutive bullish candlesticks, a downtrend began. We can see that last month closed with a very strong bullish candlestick, with a very short upper shadow, different from the previous market situation where there were two very long upper shadow candlesticks. Therefore, I believe that the current bull market has not yet reached the middle and late stages.
BTC Weekly K-line:
From the weekly perspective, we can consider this as an AMD pattern. In the previous bull market, the market went through an A phase, accumulation, followed by a price drop, forming a consolidation phase, M, and then returned to this range, D, distribution. This distribution will at least rise above the previous historical high of Bitcoin. Currently, it has reached this high point, but I don't think this distribution has ended. Looking at the Fibonacci extension of this recent downtrend, the first extension level is 1.13, which the price has not reached yet. If the market is blocked here before the Bitcoin halving and undergoes a relatively large retracement, such as returning to the position where the market consolidated for a long time, it would be a very good spot to buy spot or long contracts.
BTC Daily K-line:
From the daily perspective, yesterday closed with a bearish candlestick, breaking the previous high and the historical high of Bitcoin in 2021, but then recovered. When Bitcoin breaks through some important resistance levels, it often sweeps out some long positions, using their stop-loss positions as fuel to further drive the price up. Like when Bitcoin broke through 61,100, it also had a large bullish candlestick, sweeping out all the long positions at those levels and then continued to rise. The day before yesterday, Bitcoin successfully stabilized at the new all-time high, but yesterday it retraced, sweeping out those long positions. On the other hand, the recent funding rate for long positions in Bitcoin is indeed relatively high. If the market wants to continue to rise, it will undergo a retracement to reduce the funding rate for long positions.
BTC 4-hour K-line:
From the 4-hour perspective, after the market consolidated here yesterday, the price reached 73,000 when the US stock market opened in the evening, setting a new high, and then retraced, completing the retracement of the rapidly rising candlestick. So, there was an opportunity to go long near 69,000 last night. Of course, if you missed the opportunity, it's okay because the market is likely to retrace again, breaking through this low point, or even breaking through this low point and then rebounding to continue rising.
BTC 1-hour K-line:
From the 1-hour perspective, the market has returned to this consolidation range, and we need to pay attention to the breakout or breakdown of this range to find opportunities to enter long positions. At the same time, we can also observe the trend of the Grayscale Bitcoin ETF spot market. Last night, the market retraced to fill the gap. Similarly, we can wait until the US stock market opens tonight to observe the trend of the Grayscale ETF and make corresponding decisions.
In summary, for today's market, we need to pay attention to the breakout or breakdown of the consolidation range in the 1-hour timeframe. If the market breaks out and retraces without breaking the low point, we can go long. If the market breaks down and then recovers the two previous low points, we can also go long.
If there are any aspects of today's market that need to be discussed, feel free to communicate. Thank you.
Risk Warning: This platform promises to provide professional information services. The content provided by this platform is for reference only and does not constitute any investment advice. At the same time, this platform does not promise investors any profits, nor does it agree to share investment profits or losses with investors. The market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
