On March 12, 2020, the first black swan event in the currency circle, the safe-haven properties of cryptocurrencies were denied by the market, and the price of Bitcoin plummeted, breaking the four-thousand-dollar mark for the first time since its listing, reaching a low of $3621.8.
On March 12, 2024, cryptocurrencies were widely recognized, and the spot ETF of Bitcoin was listed on the US exchange. Its safe-haven properties were hailed as digital gold, and it broke through the $72,800 mark, becoming the world's eighth-largest asset. In just four years, the price of Bitcoin has increased by 20.13 times, gaining global recognition for its value. Instead of always saying that there is a cycle every four years, do you think this round marks the beginning of a cycle or the end of a weekly cycle?
Market Review
In this bull market cycle, it was mentioned early on in the blog that the $69,000 Bitcoin in this round of the bull market would not be the endpoint. It has only taken four months and twenty-six days for Bitcoin to rise from $26,800 to the current $72,800, far exceeding the level of the previous bull market. The background is also completely different. Compared to the unlimited quantitative easing by the Federal Reserve during the pandemic, which led to severe over-leverage and rapid inflation, causing a huge impact on the banking ecosystem and frequent geopolitical conflicts, the post-pandemic economy is gradually recovering. After 16 months of violent interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve, the market has finally returned to normal levels. During this time, the value of the cryptocurrency field has gradually been demonstrated. With the listing of the Bitcoin ETF on the US exchange and the upcoming Bitcoin halving, as well as the Federal Reserve's desire to reduce interest rates after reaching the peak, a series of positive news is about to be announced, ushering in a wave of cryptocurrency narratives. The title of "digital gold" for Bitcoin is becoming more solid. Under such different background conditions, are you still expecting a deep correction for Bitcoin?
Intraday Analysis
The market environment of the current bull market is beyond doubt, and the only secret to ensuring no losses in a bull market is to buy at the current price, buy on the pullback, seize the trend, and boldly hold for higher prices. Currently, Bitcoin has surpassed the new high level, and the two recent pullbacks have proven the foundation of this upward trend. The $69,000 mark has achieved a bottom-to-top transformation, turning the endpoint into the starting point in the new trend. Therefore, in the short to medium term, even if there is a pullback in the future, it will only be a normal profit-taking, not the end of the trend.
Looking at the market, the daily trend is strong and powerful, and the 4-hour level is stable above the MA60 moving average support. It has received buying support after touching it twice recently, indicating the strong bullish trend. In the world of contract players, the small-scale trends that are commonly used have received strong support, such as the MA120 line on the 1-hour level, which is a good entry point for establishing a position or adding to a long-term position. Since we have already firmly established a bullish mindset, going long around the support level is our best choice.
Intraday Suggestions
Pay close attention to the support level around $7,050-$7,100 for Bitcoin. If the market stops falling, enter a long position decisively, while also focusing on the $6,950 level. As for Ethereum, pay attention to the support level around $3,970-$4,000. If the decline stops, consider entering a long position, with a focus on the vicinity of $3,900-$3,920.
For more strategic guidance, follow Yunsan's Weibo, 500,000-follower financial analyst: Blockchain Yunsan
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