In late April this year, Bitcoin is about to undergo another halving. After this halving, the reward for each Bitcoin block will decrease from 6.25 to 3.125 bitcoins.
Halving has always been a very important and iconic event for the cryptocurrency ecosystem. As a major player in the cryptocurrency ecosystem, Grayscale recently released an article titled "2024 Halving: This Time It’s Actually Different" - referring to the halving in 2024, which is expected to be different this time.
In this article, Grayscale interprets the upcoming halving from four perspectives: the potential impact of supply, the role of miners, ongoing on-chain activities, and the impact of Bitcoin ETF on the market.
The article ultimately converges on one fundamental question: what impact will these perspectives have on the future price of Bitcoin?
Regarding the potential impact of supply, the article mainly mentions that each halving of block rewards will further increase the scarcity of Bitcoin.
As for this "scarcity," I think it depends on the perspective. From the perspective of new supply, it does decrease. However, if we look at the circulation, as long as Bitcoin still has block rewards, its circulation will continue to increase.
This is different from Ethereum: because Ethereum has burning behavior, its circulation may actually shrink with the increase in on-chain activities. So, I think Ethereum's deflationary effect is what truly creates "scarcity."
The "scarcity" brought about by Bitcoin halving is more of an emotional response. I believe that even if it affects the price of Bitcoin, it is only an emotional impact, not a substantial impact on the mechanism.
Regarding the role of miners, the article mainly mentions two challenges that miners face: one is the continuously increasing mining cost, and the other is the decreasing income from block rewards.
To cope with these challenges, miners may sell the Bitcoin they mine and even sell their inventory. The article mentions that as early as the fourth quarter of last year, some miners began selling inventory to raise funds in preparation for the upcoming halving this year.
It is worth noting that with the rise of Bitcoin's on-chain activities in 2023, miners have seen a significant increase in income.
The article lists three noteworthy data points:
- On November 20th last year, Bitcoin's on-chain transaction fees exceeded Ethereum's for the first time.
- Since the emergence of Bitcoin's on-chain ecosystem, over 20% of miners' income comes from activities related to the on-chain ecosystem.
- In November and December last year, in the NFT trading field, Bitcoin surpassed Ethereum and became the leader in NFT trading.
The direct consequences of these data points for the Bitcoin ecosystem may include the following:
First, the challenges miners face in terms of income will be greatly alleviated. In the long run, this will stabilize miners' income and ensure the security of the Bitcoin network.
Additionally, it can be speculated that as the NFT ecosystem is ignited in the late stage of the upcoming bull market, there will likely be a remarkable volume of NFT transactions in Bitcoin's on-chain ecosystem. At that time, the prices of leading NFTs in Bitcoin's on-chain ecosystem are also expected to experience a significant bubble.
Finally, regarding the approval of Bitcoin ETF, the article expresses an extremely optimistic attitude, believing that it will directly attract the attention of three types of people: investors, financial advisors, and capital market allocators, ultimately greatly promoting the adoption and recognition of Bitcoin by the mainstream market.
The article cites a noteworthy data point: the inflow of funds within 15 days after the approval of the ETF will offset the selling pressure that Bitcoin may experience in the three months following the upcoming halving. Therefore, the article optimistically believes that the approval of the ETF will effectively offset the pressure from miners' selling.
Overall, Grayscale's article lists the unique advantages of this halving compared to previous halvings and believes that these advantages will provide long-term support for Bitcoin's future upward trend.
I once believed in an earlier article that in the upcoming bull market, the price of Bitcoin could reach $100,000. At that time, the Bitcoin ecosystem did not yet have the on-chain ecosystem. Now, the Bitcoin ecosystem has begun to take shape and is supported by external funds, so I am now somewhat optimistic about Bitcoin exceeding $100,000 in the bull market.
免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。
