Watch the video: Bitcoin Market Analysis 2024.02.18
BTC Monthly K-line:
From the monthly perspective, the market is currently attempting to break through the 0.618 and 0.66 levels of a downward trend. Last month, a doji candlestick formed, and the market tested the 0.618 level but failed to hold, leading to a drop. However, the market did not reverse due to this doji candlestick. If the market tests the 0.66 level again and fails to hold, it may initiate a new downtrend. If this month continues to close with a bullish candlestick, it will be the 6th consecutive bullish month, a pattern that has only occurred once in the history of Bitcoin contracts. We need to pay attention to whether the market will follow a similar pattern to the previous occurrence. If there is a retracement, we need to focus on the support in the range of approximately 37500-35000 from the monthly perspective.
BTC Weekly K-line:
From the weekly perspective, the market attempted to break through the 0.618 level of a downward trend due to the positive news about ETF, but failed and retraced back into the multi-long turnover range. When a candlestick with a very long lower shadow appears, it breaks through some previous lows and fills the gap left by the rapid rise of the two previous candlesticks. This candlestick can be considered a signal of a bullish trend. If the market successfully breaks through the multi-long turnover range, opportunities to enter long positions can be found on smaller timeframes. Currently, the market is attempting to break through the 0.66 level. If it encounters resistance at this level during the weekly closing tomorrow morning at 8 o'clock, I believe that the year-long uptrend has ended, and the market will experience a relatively large retracement. Otherwise, if the market holds above the 0.66 level, it may test the historical high of Bitcoin.
BTC Daily K-line:
From the daily perspective, during the Spring Festival, the market continuously closed with bullish candlesticks, pushing the market up to the 0.66 level. From the daily perspective, the market has already held above the 0.66 level and retested the support at 0.66 yesterday. However, it is important to be cautious of false breakouts. If the market forms a large bearish candlestick and drops back, it would be considered a false breakout. We need to pay attention to the price behavior in the multi-long turnover range.
BTC 4-hour K-line:
From the 4-hour perspective, the market has tested and held above the 0.66 level. Let's take a look at the volume distribution chart after the breakout. Currently, the market has dropped below the VAL line but bounced back, yet it has not been able to hold above the POC line. We can get a clearer picture from the 1-hour perspective.
BTC 1-hour K-line:
From the 1-hour perspective, yesterday afternoon, the market first dropped below the POC line, then below the VAL line, but found support at the 0.66 level. This is because when the market broke through the 0.66 level previously, some traders entered long positions. When the price dropped back to this level, they exited at the original price. Similarly, when the market tested the 0.66 level without breaking it, some traders entered long positions again, providing support at this level. This rebound is likely a dead cat bounce. Currently, the market has rebounded to the 0.618 level and encountered resistance at the POC line. If the market drops below the VAL line again, I believe it's worth trying to enter a short position. The US stock market has not opened yet, so we can also make decisions after the US stock market opens tonight.
In summary, today's market requires attention to the volume distribution chart after the 0.66 retracement level breakout. When the market drops below the VAL line again, consider entering a short position.
If there are any aspects of today's market that need to be discussed, feel free to communicate. Thank you.
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