Market Review

Last Sunday, Bitcoin successfully broke through the daily MA60 resistance line and the price fell above 43,000 RMB, which was a signal for the continuation of the bullish trend. However, due to the recent macro events, the price did not choose to continue the upward trend and instead oscillated around the moving average. Currently, affected by the impact of the news release, both Bitcoin and Ethereum have shown a downward trend, and the price is approaching the long-short boundary. The situation of the support breaking at this boundary will determine the direction of the medium to long-term trend.

Trend Analysis

After failing to break through the 43,900 RMB level yesterday, Bitcoin saw a pullback on the daily chart. Currently, the price has returned to being led by the MA60 moving average. If the market deviates, there may be a further expansion of the trend. Often, near the decision event boundary, facing huge selling pressure in the market will lead to the loss of support, which is an inevitable phenomenon in human nature's game. Looking at the small-scale trend, the current downward price is just above the support of the 1-hour MA120 moving average. This indicates that before the major trend reverses, there is still buying support at the bottom. However, once the support is broken, there may be another round of a thousand-point pullback.

As for Ethereum, after this round of downward trend, it is basically synchronized with Bitcoin. The daily chart is also constrained by the MA60 line. Currently, the price is also above the support of the 1-hour MA120 moving average. If Bitcoin's support is effective, then Ethereum will start the next round of uptrend synchronously. It is important to note that there is a gap of about 30 points in the price channel below Ethereum. If Bitcoin continues to oscillate, Ethereum may correct this gap, which does not mean a trend reversal, unless Bitcoin completes the support break and continues downward. Otherwise, we can consider it as a short-term bullish trend.

Trading Suggestions

For Bitcoin, pay close attention to the support situation in the 42,100-42,500 RMB range. Long positions can be considered near the range, and be prepared to defend against a break below the range. As for Ethereum, focus on the 2,270-2,290 RMB range, with an eye on the rebound, and be prepared to defend against a break below 2,250 RMB.

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