Market Review

In the past week, the market has once again rebounded as expected. In our analysis on the morning of the 26th, it was clearly indicated that a new round of rebound would occur in the short term. After a brief hesitation, the market broke through the upper resistance as expected, once again returning to the Bitcoin daily MA60 moving average resistance level. In our actual trading, we successfully entered long positions near 40150 and exited with profit around 42000. Ethereum also followed the rise, breaking through the resistance level of 2265 and reaching above the 2300 mark, securing a gain of nearly a hundred points. This short-term upward trend is coming to an end. The question now is whether there will be a new round of correction or if the market will oscillate around the high levels.

Intraday Analysis

First, let's focus on the narrative events that we will face this week. The FOMC interest rate decision and the January non-farm payroll data will be released on Thursday and Friday this week. Although various investment banks are optimistic about the FOMC's decision to maintain interest rates, and the FOMC acknowledges that its anti-inflation efforts have achieved certain results and indicates that the policy has been tightened, the adjustment in February is not important for its annual balance sheet reduction plan. It is still too early in the current period, so it is more likely that the interest rate will remain unchanged this month. The market's expectation for a rate cut still needs to be seen in the March FOMC meeting. As for the January non-farm payroll data in the United States, we can maintain a relatively optimistic view, but the recent correlation between the US stock market and Bitcoin has been established, so we should not be overly optimistic. We still need to wait for decisive bullish events before entering long-term positions.

Looking back at the market, we mentioned at the beginning that Bitcoin encountered resistance at the daily MA60 level, and breaking through this level will indicate that the trend has officially reversed. In the short term, Bitcoin's recent high point touched the MA144 line, and the trend is suppressed by the MA120, with the moving averages trending downward and the suppression gradually increasing. Therefore, a short-term support test is imminent. In terms of Ethereum, it also performed synchronously with Bitcoin in the last rebound. Our target direction remains consistent, focusing on the support below the market. Therefore, Bitcoin is expected to first retrace to the 41600-41200 level, and if 41000 is breached, a daily level retracement will occur. As for Ethereum, the direction is slightly clearer, with a focus on the short-term support level of 2240. If the 2239 level is breached, it may drop to around 2200.

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