I'm back to discuss the money-making secrets with everyone! This time, the content is a review and excerpt from the Saturday night sharing of PRO CLUB. Welcome everyone to join in the discussion!
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Getting back to the point, BTC has broken through $41,000 and is now at $42,000. Is the market reigniting hope and starting to heat up? Can it surge to $48,000?
Next, I will analyze from the perspectives of news, funds, and technology. Please get ready and take a seat. This article is about 1700 words long and will take 8 minutes to read. There's a surprise at the end!
Let's start with the conclusion👇🏻
- On the news front, the negative impact of Grayscale's coin selling has slowed down, providing room for BTC to rise.
- On the funding front, pay attention to Coinbase becoming the new main battlefield and whether there are concentrated sell orders from major players and support levels in the full-depth.
- Technically: Pay attention to the MA120 pressure level. If it breaks through and stabilizes, it may be worth getting involved; lsur shows that retail investors are short while large investors are long.
News 1: Grayscale selling pressure
Since January 11th, Grayscale has been selling over 10,000 BTC every working day. As of now, Grayscale has sold a total of over 110,000 BTC, worth over $4.5 billion! The coins sold by Grayscale are all sold over-the-counter, and the fact that they can be absorbed daily over-the-counter indicates that there is a lot of capital waiting to enter the market.
Source: AICoin-Grayscale Data
At the same time, if we open "Grayscale BTC Trust Holdings," we can see that Grayscale's daily sales have decreased from over 15,000 to the latest 9,000 BTC, indicating a decrease in sales.
On the AICoin PC end, search for Grayscale, select the index, add this index to the secondary chart indicator, and compare it with the BTC price. It can be seen that the impact of Grayscale's sales on the market has gone from decline-shock-rise, indicating that the market has already digested the negative impact of Grayscale's coin selling, and the negative impact of Grayscale's coin selling is gradually weakening. This negative news has landed.
News 2: FTX selling
On Monday, CoinDesk reported that FTX had sold its 22 million shares of GBTC. This leaves only the negative impact of the Mt. Gox BTC compensation, but this has been repeated several times, so we need to look for an official announcement.
In summary, from a news perspective, the biggest negative impact of Grayscale's coin selling has become relatively small, while the other two negative impacts are either landing or not yet clear.
Funding 1: The undeniable Coinbase
AICoin's Bitcoin spot ETF data shows that most of the BTC spot ETF custodians are currently Coinbase, meaning that Coinbase is likely to become the new main battlefield. Data on Coinbase needs to be especially noted! Because where the funds that can lead the market are located, the market's data reference will be more significant.
As a side note, as old members of AICoin know, the main large order indicator was initially very accurate on OKX contracts, then on Binance contracts. So, from the recent situations of the main large orders, it seems that it should be Coinbase next.
You can open Coinbase BTC/USD and check the main large orders. It's very obvious that a large player is bottom fishing, which later led to an 8% rally.
Coinbase is a spot exchange with no leverage, it's actual buying or selling in USD. When it hit $49,000, a large player on Coinbase sold over $50 million in spot.
During this rally breaking through $41,000, large players on Coinbase bottom-fished over $20 million in spot between $40,000 and $38,000! If there are concentrated large sell orders on Coinbase, everyone should pay attention to a market reversal!
Funding 2: Full-depth
I'm introducing the second indicator to everyone - full-depth, a very useful indicator!
From the full-depth chart, we can see that we can see up to $50,000, with 300 BTC for sale, and there are quite a few buy orders around $38,000.
Tips: This is spot, orders have time costs, and the time cost of funds is also valuable, especially in USD, where putting it in a bank can earn an annualized 5%.
As spot ETFs are approved, BTC will be recognized by more mainstream funds and will exist as a regular investment. The data from Coinbase will become increasingly valuable as a reference. However, the viewpoint remains that wherever the main players are, the market data there is significant. As mentioned earlier, large players will move, as seen from OKX to Binance, and now to Coinbase.
Summary of funding: Coinbase has become the new main battlefield, and its main large orders and full-depth have higher reference value!
Technical Indicator 1: MA120
As seen in the chart, the current 4-hour MA120 for BTC has not been broken through, so the overall upward trend is not very stable. For those who have not entered yet, it's advisable to wait for a breakthrough and stabilization of the 4-hour MA120 before getting involved.
Technical Indicator 2: LSUR
Here's another indicator that I like to use - LSUR.
As BTC rises, LSUR falls, indicating that retail investors are short while large investors are long. It's important to note that the U.S. is on holiday for the next two days, so be cautious of potential volatility in the Asian market.
Conclusion
So far, I have analyzed the situation of BTC with everyone from the perspectives of news, funds, and technical indicators. Since my sharing in the PRO CLUB group, BTC has already surpassed $42,000.
- On the news front, the negative impact of Grayscale's coin selling has slowed down, providing room for BTC to rise.
- On the funding front, pay attention to Coinbase becoming the new main battlefield and whether there are concentrated sell orders from major players and support levels in the full-depth.
- Technically: Pay attention to the MA120 pressure level. If it breaks through and stabilizes, it may be worth getting involved; LSUR shows that retail investors are short while large investors are long.
💎Classic Tool Usage Tips:
- Full-depth: Comprehensive Market Insight
- Main Trend Tracking: Seizing Entry Opportunities with Market Trends
- Understanding the "Long/Short Ratio" in Three Minutes, Don't Be Fooled Again
Fun Fact 🤡:
Here's an interesting discovery - the peak of the chip distribution coincides with MA120, which will be a significant resistance level.
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