Market Overview:
On Friday, the three major US stock indexes fell at midday, but ended the week with cumulative gains. The S&P rebounded to a two-year high at the close, while the Dow fell by over 100 points. UnitedHealth Group fell by over 3% after its financial report. Tesla also fell by over 3%. Microsoft hit a historical high for three consecutive days and surpassed Apple in market value. Nvidia ended a six-day rally, falling from its historical high but still ending the week with an 11% gain. JPMorgan Chase initially rose by over 3% after its financial report but then turned downward, while Bank of America fell by over 1% and Citigroup rose by 1%.
The Producer Price Index (PPI) revitalized expectations of interest rate cuts, causing a jump in US bonds. The yield on the two-year US bond dropped by 17 basis points at one point, reaching an eight-month low. The US dollar index briefly turned downward.
Bitcoin fell below $44,000 during the trading day, dropping over $5,000 from the two-year high it reached on the day of the ETF listing. Bitcoin spot ETF fell by at least 5% on the day after its listing.
The conflict in the Red Sea escalated, causing crude oil to rise by over 4% during trading, but most of the gains were later reversed. Despite a two-day rebound, crude oil still ended the week with cumulative losses. Gold saw its largest increase in four weeks since the Federal Reserve meeting, with a temporary increase of over 2% during trading. US natural gas saw weekly increases of over 10% since the beginning of the year. London copper hit a four-week low, falling for four consecutive weeks.
Market Review:
On the day when the ETF's positive news was realized, the bulls made a final push, causing a rapid price drop. Over three consecutive trading days, the high point dropped by 8,000 points. There was almost no significant volatility in the two trading days over the weekend. As shown in the BTC daily chart above, the overall price remained within the lower range of the Bollinger Bands, with low-level fluctuations being the main trend.
"Buy the rumor, sell the fact" is the eternal truth of the financial market!
Market Outlook:
As shown in the 4-hour BTC chart above, the price stopped falling after a downward wave above the trend line, although the overall upward trend was not disrupted. However, the short-term 4-hour vertical drop was strong, and the Bollinger Bands also moved vertically downward. Currently, the short-term price is temporarily supported above the trend line.
The short-term market will enter a tense state. It is expected that the price will fluctuate within the range of 44,500 to 41,500. If the intraday price shows weakness, then the range will need to be adjusted downward, possibly to the range of 43,800 to 39,700. In short, the short-term market will be very tense. It is advisable to observe more and act less during trading!
Short-term trading requires caution, and strict risk control is needed for both long and short positions!
How should we view the intraday situation? Intraday trading will fluctuate within the range of 44,500 to 41,500, so it is advisable to sell high and buy low.
For more real-time price opportunities and market follow-up analysis, please pay attention to the real-time prompts from the helmsman during trading!
The recent market changes have been rapid, with large fluctuations, so risk management is essential for trading! If there are any price changes during trading, or if there are real-time price opportunities, the helmsman will provide real-time prompts to everyone during trading!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market carries risks, so speculation should be approached with caution!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market carries risks, so speculation should be approached with caution!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market carries risks, so speculation should be approached with caution!
2024.1.15
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