Before the ETF's shoe drops, let's take a look at whether the big players will win in this "news feast."
Strange things happen every year, and the crypto world has bizarre events every day!
During the critical time when the Bitcoin spot ETF applications from ARK & 21Shares are being reviewed by the SEC, a bizarre event occurred with the theft of SEC's X account! This caused BTC to spike to $48,000 and then quickly fall back. As of now, the BTC price is between $45,000 and $46,000, with daily EMA10 support at $44,500.
According to multiple data from AICoin, retail investors are bullish while institutional investors are bearish. So, who will win in this game? With the shoe yet to drop, no one knows for sure, as the SEC has an "unpredictable" nature!
There are more profit opportunities in pulling up the market than pushing it down.
In the estimated liquidation chart, we can see that the current price only needs to rise by $2,000 to liquidate $500 million, while a $2,000 drop in price results in a liquidation amount that is less than 50% of the rise. This means that there are more profit opportunities in pulling up the market than pushing it down.
Support is present in the price movement.
- The BTC 2024 opening price line is around $42,000. According to historical statistics, the annual opening price serves as a significant pressure or support line for the year. It was tested on January 3 and quickly rebounded above $42,000. Its support strength is undeniable, and even in the event of a decline, it will quickly recover.
The largest BTC holding in the market, Binance's BTCUSDT perpetual contract, has seen the LUSR indicator rise to 1.55.
This value was as low as 0.75 yesterday, meaning that the number of long positions has doubled today. However, the amount of positions held has not changed significantly.
When combined with the main force order book indicator after the up and down needle insertion - the bearish view, the data shows that the main buy orders on the four major markets are $212 million less than the main sell orders. This, along with the LUSD indicator, confirms that the main players are opening short positions. The current price also reflects a lack of optimism about the expectations.
BTC holdings in the market are decreasing, and large players are hoarding coins.
- The indices from Binance's BTC wallet balance and OKX's BTC wallet balance show that the total amount of BTC in the market is decreasing. This indicates that the current state is one where the whales or large players are still hoarding coins. Since October, why would the whales who have been accumulating chips want to significantly push the price down and then get everyone on board?
Currently, the annualized interest rate for U on Binance and OKX is only 3-5 points, indicating that many people and a lot of funds have been converted into stablecoins, and the borrowed U has been repaid. The car has already been washed again, so there is no need for another big drop.
In conclusion, if the ETF is not approved tonight, it may follow the trend of January 3, dropping to $40,000 and then rebounding to $42,000. However, if it is approved, it is highly likely to rise to over $50,000, and any subsequent pullback will still be at the current price of $45,000.
Let's wait for the shoe to drop together, keep an eye on AICoin's updates to understand the market trends, and we can also "vent" together!
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