Market observation:

Currently, the US dollar index has fallen from a high of 107 to 101, and the downward trend is beginning to slow down, with 100 likely to provide strong support. From the end of October to now, the trend of the US dollar index has shown a basic negative correlation with the price of BTC or the Nasdaq 100 index.

As the US dollar index is currently slowing down, the incremental funds brought to the cryptocurrency by it are also slowing down. The market is seeing fewer and fewer diverse opportunities, and localized rotation hotspots have become the channels for fund chasing.

Looking at stablecoin data on exchanges (right chart, from @nansen_ai), there is an increased net outflow from North American exchanges, mainly from Coinbase and Kraken. In addition, there have been relatively large sales of Coinbase stock by "Wood Sister" recently, which is worth paying close attention to. The BTC ETF that was approved on January 10th was also from "Wood Sister's" fund, raising some doubts. From multiple sources, it is not expected to be approved in January, and it is anticipated to be around March, with firms like BlackRock and Vanguard expected to be officially approved, in addition to the BTC halving at the end of April. Expectations for the Federal Reserve to restart QE in the second half of the year will lead the market into a relatively high period of excitement.

We predict that there will be an excellent opportunity for allocation in Q1 of 2024. The second half of the year is likely to be a period of market excitement!

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