(BTC Evening Analysis and Forecast)
From the daily chart perspective, on December 11th, Bitcoin quickly dropped, reaching a low price near 40222, after two days of adjustment. With the announcement of the Fed's interest rate cut next year last night, Bitcoin rebounded in response. However, the highest price did not break through 43805, which was the previous high point before the daily downtrend.
From the indicators, on December 11th, the daily chart showed a large bearish candle breaking below the 5 and 10-day Moving Averages (MA), confirming a short-term bearish trend on the daily chart. Although there was a strong rebound on the daily chart yesterday, the price did not close above the 5 and 10-day MA, so currently, the daily chart still appears to be in a downtrend. Unless the daily chart closing price today can stand above the 5 and 10-day MA, which is 43130, the short-term daily chart can quickly turn into a bullish trend, and the price will have the opportunity to move towards a new high.
If the daily chart does not hold above 43130 today, the short-term daily chart is likely to test support near 40555-40222, which is the lowest point of yesterday's rebound and the previous lowest point of the downtrend. In terms of volume, the daily chart's volume today is lower compared to the previous few days. If the market bulls cannot continue to exert force in the short term, the daily chart is likely to continue the downtrend.
From the four-hour chart perspective, after a large bearish candle formed, the price made a new low near 40222 after a period of adjustment. Then the price started to rebound, and currently, the highest price of the four-hour chart rebound did not break through 43805, which is the high point of the large bearish candle on the four-hour chart. Therefore, currently on the four-hour chart, the market is in a consolidation phase within the downtrend.
From the candlestick perspective, in the four-hour chart, the candlestick rising from the low point of 40222 pierced the 5 and 10-day MA at the low point of 40984, and the subsequent price also broke through the high point of the rebound after the decline of the large bearish candle on the four-hour chart. So in the short term, if 40984 does not fall, the four-hour chart will continue the upward trend of consolidation. If 40984 falls, it will depend on whether the support level of the lowest point at 40222 is effective. As long as 40222 does not fall, Bitcoin is expected to continue the rebound trend in the short term.
From the indicators, most indicators on the four-hour chart are in the overbought zone, indicating a short-term need for a pullback, and the volume has decreased in the past few four-hour periods. If the bulls do not continue to exert force in the short term and the price does not break through the previous high of 43476, the price is likely to test lower levels again. Conversely, if the price breaks through the previous high, Bitcoin will continue to move towards a new high.
The market has been fervent for a while, and in the previous article, "Old Dog" also warned everyone about the risks. From on-chain data, the amount of Bitcoin flowing into exchanges in the past 7 days is ten times the amount flowing out of exchanges in the past 30 days, indicating that in the past week, many people have chosen to transfer Bitcoin to exchanges for cashing out or to open long positions in Bitcoin. This indicates that the divergence between long and short positions is widening at this level, and the market's volatility will be more intense compared to the previous period.
Last night's move can be said to be the Fed's verbal intervention. However, by next year, when the Fed's interest rate cut is actually implemented, it may be the official start of the market entering a bull market.
That's all for today, thank you for your support~
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