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A single revelation from Bill Gates has become the hot topic of discussion in the machine learning community:
"GPT-5 won't be much better than GPT-4."
Although he is no longer formally involved in the daily operations of Microsoft, he still serves as an advisor and is familiar with the ideas of the OpenAI leadership team.
The news comes from an interview with Gates by the German newspaper "Handelsblatt."
Gates stated that many people within OpenAI, including Ultraman, believe that GPT-5 will be significantly better than GPT-4.
However, he believes that there are many reasons to believe that current generative artificial intelligence has reached its limit.
(Although he also admits that he could be wrong)
It is unknown how much internal, unpublished information Gates has seen from OpenAI, but it can be confirmed that GPT-5 is already in development.
Prior to the recent controversy, Ultraman also acknowledged this in an interview with the British newspaper "Financial Times," but did not disclose any release schedule.
In addition, the trademark for GPT-5 has already been applied for by OpenAI's operating subsidiary in various countries.
Gates Favors Agent More
Regarding GPT-5, Ultraman revealed that it will require more data for training, which will come from a combination of publicly available datasets on the internet and the company's proprietary data.
OpenAI recently called on other organizations to provide large-scale datasets that are "currently not easily accessible to the public online," especially for any format of long-form writing or conversation.
Although GPT-5 may be more complex than its predecessor, Ultraman stated that it is technically difficult to accurately predict what new features the model may have that GPT-4 does not. "Before we train this model, it's like an interesting guessing game for us."
In Gates' view, the illusion problem of AI will be greatly improved within a few years, and costs will also decrease rapidly, making new and reliable applications possible.
However, the capability has reached its limit, and there will not be a significant leap like from GPT-2 to GPT-4.
So what will be the next breakthrough? Gates believes it will be explainable AI, but he expects it to be achieved in the next decade (2030-2039).
He also stated that Nvidia does not have an absolute advantage in AI chips, and Microsoft, Google, Amazon, and OpenAI itself are all developing or considering developing their own AI chips.
Alright, so here's the question—
If Gates isn't so confident about the path of GPT-5, which path of AI development does he favor now?
The answer is: AI Agent.
This is not a secret. Earlier this month, Gates wrote a blog post mainly discussing "how personal AI agents will fundamentally change how people use computers."
In that blog post, he explicitly stated that AI agents will bring shockwaves to the tech industry and society.
Specifically, Gates said:
In the near future, any netizen can have an AI agent, far beyond the scope of today's technology.
Agents can play a role anywhere in life, profoundly impacting software businesses and society.
And this is not the first time Gates has publicly supported AI agents.
In an AI-related event in May this year, Gates predicted in an interview that the first company to develop an AI agent will definitely have a place among its competitors.
The reason is that AI agents will deal a fatal blow to search engines. With such an all-powerful thing as an agent, who needs search engines, productivity websites, or Amazon? These will all be left in the dust by netizens.
Moreover, Gates' confidence in agents is not just talk.
In June, Gates, along with Nvidia, Microsoft, Reid Hoffman (LinkedIn co-founder), and Eric Schmidt (former CEO of Google), invested in the AI unicorn InflectionAI.
Apart from Hoffman, who invested in himself, the three co-founders of InflectionAI also include two heavyweights from DeepMind.
However, this investment clearly is not just a bet on the founders, but rather on what InflectionAI is actually doing—
A personal AI assistant named Pi.
Pi can also help with searches or answer questions, but its main feature is emotional companionship. Compared to more conversational and personalized options like ChatGPT and Claude, "when users communicate with Pi, it feels like chatting with a friend or family member."
To be honest, although Pi is renowned for its high emotional intelligence, the technology and actual experience behind it are far from the kind of AI agent that Gates imagines.
But Gates said that he has been thinking about intelligent agents for 30 years, and he even wrote about it in his book "The Road Ahead," published in 1995.
It's just that, limited by the development of AI technology, it wasn't until recently that he saw the light of a new player like Pi.
"Agents will not only change the way everyone interacts with computers," Gates also wrote in the blog post, "Agents will disrupt the software industry, which will be the biggest computing revolution since inputting commands and clicking icons."
In Gates' vision, as long as you are willing, an agent can help you accomplish anything.
In Gates' eyes, AI will not take away your job, but it can make it possible for people to work only three days a week in the future.
In addition, Jamie Dimonye, CEO of JPMorgan Chase, also predicted that due to artificial intelligence, the next generation of workers will only work 3.5 days a week.
One More Thing
But don't get too caught up in the joy of the three-day work week that Gates mentioned.
Although Gates often expresses his views on the future, he is not known for accurate predictions.
At this time, netizens often bring up his past statements such as "640K of memory should be enough for anybody" and "I see little commercial potential for the internet in the next 10 years."
Reference links:
[1] https://www.handelsblatt.com/technik/ki/bill-gates-mit-ki-koennen-medikamente-viel-schneller-entwickelt-werden/29450298.html
[2]https://www.reddit.com/r/MachineLearning/comments/183tft1/bill_gates_told_a_german_newspaper_that_gpt5/
[3]https://www.gatesnotes.com/AI-agents
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