What impact will the liquidation of FTX token assets have on the market?

CN
1 year ago

Original | Odaily Planet Daily

Author | How is the husband

Editor | Qin Xiaofeng

What impact will the FTX token asset liquidation have on the market?

FTXrelated events have always been the focus of the market's attention. Recently, FTX's associated wallet has frequently transferred large amounts of assets, suspected of liquidation, causing concern and panic in the crypto community.

In fact, on September 14, the court had already approved the FTX asset liquidation plan: The liquidation limit is $50 million for the first week, and $100 million for each subsequent week; but the liquidation limit can be negotiated with the creditors, with a maximum cap of $200 million. The liquidation process is also relatively clear, with most of the remaining tokens available for liquidation, excluding some tokens that need to be unlocked. Bitcoin and Ethereum require a 10-day advance notice to the creditors' committee, special committee, and U.S. trustee before they can be sold.

However, since the approval of the liquidation plan, the relevant wallets of FTX/Alameda have not shown much activity, except for depositing some SOL and ETH into Figment for staking, with no change in the remaining holdings.

In the past two weeks, as the crypto market has been on the rise, the relevant addresses of FTX/Alameda have frequently experienced large movements of assets being transferred to exchanges, triggering concerns in the market about the impact of FTX asset liquidation on the market downturn.

In response to the recent outflow of tokens from FTX/Alameda's related addresses, Odaily Planet Daily has conducted sorting, statistics, and analysis.

Statistics of Token Outflow from FTX/Alameda Related Addresses

In the past week, FTX/Alameda related addresses deposited approximately $128 million worth of token assets into Binance and Coinbase. The following figure shows the statistics of token asset outflow from FTX/Alameda related addresses in the past week:

What impact will the FTX token asset liquidation have on the market?

From the above figure, it can be seen that the number of token types that flowed out in the past 7 days was 28, with 19 token types having outflows exceeding $1 million.

The top three token outflows are: SOL with an outflow of approximately 1.26 million tokens, worth approximately $41 million; RNDR with an outflow of approximately 9.11 million tokens, worth approximately $22 million; and ETH with an outflow of approximately 87.38 million tokens, worth approximately $15.7 million.

(Odaily Planet Daily: The above amounts are calculated based on the market price at the time of deposit, and the data is from 8 hot wallet addresses and 2 SOL cold wallet addresses of FTX/Alameda.)

FTX Token Asset Liquidation Has Minimal Impact on SOL

Starting from October 25, FTX/Alameda related addresses have successively deposited tokens into exchanges. Despite being the token with the highest outflow value from FTX related addresses, the price of SOL has not been negatively affected, but has instead risen.

FTX代币资产清算进行时,会对行情造成多大冲击?

(SOL Price Daily Chart)

OKX Euro Easy Market shows that the price of SOL has continuously risen from 30 USDT on October 25 to a peak of 39.8 USDT today, reaching the highest level since September last year, and is currently maintaining around 39 USDT, with a growth of over 20% in the past week.

According toCoinGecko data, the average trading volume ofSolana in the past 7 days is around $1 billion; the total value of SOL deposited into exchanges by FTX related addresses at the time was approximately $41 million. Overall, these liquidations do not have a significant impact on the highly liquid SOL.

Other small coins with holdings worth over a million dollars in other FTX wallets, such as BICO, AXS, etc., generally have a market value of over $100 million, and the pressure from liquidation is not significant. These coins have actually followed the overall market trend and risen in the past two weeks.

In fact, the essence of FTX token asset liquidation is to maximize profits, especially since most of FTX's SOL holdings are restricted by a structured unlocking plan, and a one-time sale in the short term will not generate more profits.

According to a previous article by Odaily Planet Daily "Decomposing FTX's $3.4 Billion Holdings, How Much Selling Pressure Do the Top Ten Coins Have?", as of August 31, the FTX wallet address holdings amounted to $3.4 billion; as of today, FTX's total holdings exceed $5 billion—due to the recent market rise, SOL's price has doubled, Bitcoin's price has increased by 30%, and other coins have also experienced certain increases.

It can be seen that the market's importance to FTX liquidation, FTX's liquidation team Galaxy Digital will not be eager to sell and drain market liquidity. Furthermore, as mentioned at the beginning of the article, the court-approved FTX asset liquidation plan has a maximum weekly limit of only $200 million, which will not cause significant fluctuations in the current market liquidity.Finally, FTX token asset liquidation does not rule out the possibility of off-exchange OTC trading; after the approval of the liquidation plan, news of institutions such as DWF purchasing FTX token assets off-exchange has also become frequent in the media.

Overall, the FTX liquidation team may be more concerned about the impact of liquidation on the market than we are, and the selling pressure from liquidation is not as significant as imagined, so the crypto community does not need to panic excessively.

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