Hello everyone, long time no see! I am your Hai Ge. It's been a while since I last updated, and my Weibo has also been mentioned. I didn't plan to continue updating, always thinking of doing things on my own, leisurely and at ease. But after this round of rise, I still want to share my thoughts with everyone! Can this bull market reach 200,000, and at which stage of the cycle are we? Let's follow Hai Ge's thoughts together.

First, let's take a look at the issue that everyone is most concerned about. That is, Ethereum ETF has been approved. Has the situation reversed after BTC broke through? In fact, Hai Ge thinks that this recent rise can be clearly seen as a very weak rebound despite the breakthrough.

You can clearly see that we are currently in a rising trend with shrinking trading volume. So, despite various bullish renderings of the ETF, there isn't actually much speculative capital believing in it. The market lacks much enthusiasm, while retail investors are being stimulated. So, the trading volume this time is not as large as the previous bullish news. Like in July, there was also a rising trend with shrinking trading volume, and BTC rose to 31,800, but the trading volume kept declining, and the market enthusiasm was not high. Therefore, the current small bear market has emerged.

Now, back to the current situation. Hai Ge thinks that this time it may be a similar situation, rising first and then posing, forming a small wave rebound. Now, we are waiting for the heat to dissipate and for an opportunity to go short. In fact, it can be seen from the fact that the SEC approved the Ethereum ETF last week that the SEC is actually on the side of investors. The reason why they haven't approved the spot ETF now is because it's a bear market. Even if they approved it, it wouldn't move much. So, this crucial big weapon needs to be kept for before the bull market.

Hai Ge sees many long and short opportunities every day, and now some institutions are actually selling at high levels. For example, Ark Investment Management has recently started continuous selling of Grayscale BTC and Coinbase's stocks related to the cryptocurrency circle. This indicates that the market makers still believe that the bear market has not yet ended, and there is still room for further decline. In fact, this is a good thing, because after the decline, you can buy low again. Selling high and buying low, it never fails.

Finally, Wall Street is particularly concerned about the US unemployment rate data. Because it is a decisive factor in measuring financial crises. This data will be released at 8:30 pm this Friday, with the previous value at 3.8%. The market expectation is 3.7%, and the previous data already exceeded expectations.

If this data is still significantly higher than market expectations, then we need to be careful. Because with the current high interest rates of the Federal Reserve, it is very likely to trigger a great depression. Every time the Federal Reserve says that this time is different and there won't be a recession. The fact is, every time such intense rate hikes have triggered financial crises. Like the 2000 internet bubble and the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis were both caused by excessive rate hikes, so everyone still needs to do risk control in advance. During the 2020 pandemic, the US stock market was halted three times. Don't be afraid of ten thousand, be afraid of the unexpected. Once you go bankrupt, the subsequent market may have nothing to do with you. Well, that's all for today.

The market is here, Hai Ge is here! A gentleman hides his weapon in his body, waiting for the right time to act. When the world has order, it is visible; when the world is in chaos, it is hidden!

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[The above content is exclusively original by (Coin Sea Crossflow), the analysis and strategy are for reference only, please bear the risk on your own, the article review and release may have lagging strategies and lack timeliness, the above analysis content only represents the author's personal views, does not constitute specific operational advice, and the profit and loss are at your own risk. Investment is risky, be cautious when entering the market. Specific operations are subject to Hai Ge's real-time strategy. Meeting is fate, Hai Ge is a person who believes in fate!]

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