USDT OTC Premium: Barometer of the Cryptocurrency Market

CN
1 year ago

In the cryptocurrency market, Tether's stablecoin USDT plays an important role by providing investors with a channel for funds to enter and exit the crypto market. Investors' attention and interest in the crypto market are often reflected in the changes in USDT demand. However, an important indicator that emerges in the analysis of USDT demand changes is the "USDT OTC premium." So, what is USDT OTC premium and what impact does it have on the market?

Definition of USDT OTC Premium

In theory, the price of USDT should be equal to the price of the US dollar. However, in reality, the price of USDT always tends to be higher or lower than the US dollar price, which is known as a "premium."

USDT OTC premium refers to the ratio between the over-the-counter price and the US dollar price. Market prices are influenced by supply and demand, so when the demand for purchasing crypto assets excessively increases, this indicator often exceeds 100%, resulting in a positive premium. Conversely, when market demand is weak, the market price of USDT may be lower, leading to a discount of 4% or more, known as a negative premium.

In short, the more people buy USDT, the higher the price of USDT and the more likely a positive premium will appear; conversely, the fewer people buy USDT, the more likely a negative premium will appear.

Impact of USDT OTC Premium

USDT OTC premium is not just an indicator; it can also reflect the actual market situation and have an impact on the market. A positive premium usually drives up the prices of mainstream coins and reduces the number of people selling USDT and cashing out, which is beneficial to the market as off-market funds are entering. Conversely, a negative premium is usually detrimental to the market and may lead to a large outflow of on-market funds.

Therefore, USDT OTC premium can reflect the retail purchase volume of crypto assets and is a reference for short-term market liquidity and activity.

USDT Price Stability Mechanism

To achieve the goal of maintaining USDT stability, Tether has taken some measures:

First, USDT is pegged to the real-world US dollar and can be exchanged at a 1:1 ratio. Therefore, when there is a significant premium, the market will engage in arbitrage to drive the price back to stability.

Second, Tether adjusts the supply of USDT to stabilize the price. Generally, when USDT is at a positive premium, a large amount of USDT will be transferred out of Tether's account, which the market interprets as "issuance." Conversely, after a period of negative premium, Tether will reclaim and destroy a portion of USDT to maintain market balance.

In summary, USDT OTC premium not only reflects the market situation but also has an impact on the market. Historical data shows that in a bull market, USDT's OTC premium is usually positive; in a bear market, USDT's OTC premium is usually negative.

However, whether positive or negative, premium fluctuations are normal market behavior, and investors should consider various factors when making decisions, including fundamentals, technical indicators, and economic conditions.

Additionally, you can check the USDT OTC premium index in the AICoin "APP-Market-Comprehensive-Index/PC-Market-Index" section.

USDT OTC Premium: Barometer of the Cryptocurrency Market_aicoin_Figure 1

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