Entering the high-yield, high-leverage market is like dozing off on the railroad tracks. If you can't stay vigilant at all times, one day, a sudden train will kill you. People who have risen to the ranks of the wealthy were once afraid of being poor, so when they have money, they develop a compensatory psychology of fearing that the world doesn't know about it. As a trader, the only downside is seeing a large sum of money fall into the hands of unprepared people, forcing them to try to understand the aroma of Maotai liquor and the beauty of tipsy women late at night.
In the financial market, turning 1 million into 2 million is not too difficult, but most people are better at turning 1 million into 500,000, and the really skilled ones can turn 1 million into 50,000. It's quite magical that even when they become rich, they cannot stop trading, and even when they become poor, they cannot stop trading. Most people's efforts are not to profit and exit the "game," but to continue the "game."
Market Review:
On Friday, the U.S. PPI rose higher than expected, U.S. bond yields rose, the dollar jumped, and U.S. stocks opened lower. Consumer inflation expectations cooled, causing the Dow to turn higher after falling more than 100 points; U.S. bond yields fell in the short term but still closed higher; the dollar gave back most of its gains, then accelerated higher again, reaching a five-week high, and the yen against the dollar briefly touched the threshold of last year's Japanese intervention in the foreign exchange market.
The Dow rebounded for the entire week, the Nasdaq fell for the first time in seven months for two consecutive weeks, chip stocks fell for four consecutive days, and underperformed the broader market. Nvidia fell more than 8% for the entire week, marking the largest decline in 11 months. Energy stocks rose.
Crude oil rebounded, rising for seven consecutive weeks, the longest streak in a year and a half. European natural gas fell for two days but still rose more than 20% for the entire week. Gold fell for five consecutive days, hitting a two-week low for the third consecutive week. London nickel fell for six consecutive days, dropping 5% for the entire week.
Bitcoin has shown long upper and lower shadows for the past seven weeks, indicating a small-scale fluctuation trend. The overall trend is a slow decline and oscillation, with a very limited speculative opportunity, and the increasingly narrow range of fluctuations has deterred short-term speculators.
Short-term 28,500 is still a super important key price. Due to the narrow range of fluctuations, it is not advisable for everyone to aggressively trade during a period of market volatility when they should be lying flat. Because the daily price fluctuations have shrunk to the extreme, the market price has no analytical value, so there is no real-time update, and the extreme shrinkage of price fluctuations means that there is no analytical significance, hence no daily updates.
The daily chart of BTC shows that the circle represents the last large positive candlestick in the continuous upward trend. The price has been in a slow decline and oscillation for nearly two months, but it has not broken the low point of the first large positive candlestick, indicating that the short-term strength still exists. Pay attention to the support at 28,500, which has been tested twice before, and both times resulted in a rebound. The price is currently hovering above 29,000. We took profit from long positions at 31,200 earlier, and the target for short positions is also below 29,000. Overall, it is still in a strong position, and after the extreme shrinkage of price fluctuations, a breakthrough will eventually come. We have previously analyzed the general direction and target of this rebound. The market has been in a small-scale oscillation for two months, and any price below 29,000 in the short term has the potential to rise again at any time. However, the volatility is too low and the amplitude is too small, and the market contains too much risk, so it is recommended to wait for the market volatility to pick up before getting involved.
The above is the 4-hour chart, and the price rebounded after testing the 28,500 support twice! The importance of 28,500 for short-term trading is self-evident!
Market Outlook:
For high-leverage speculators, it is best to be patient and observe. Such volatility and amplitude are not conducive to speculation; on the contrary, the market contains unlimited risks. The core of trading is patience. Being a little more patient will not be wrong.
For spot speculators, it is advisable to buy spot positions near 28,500 with a light position, and in general, I believe there is no problem with spot positions below 29,000. It is recommended to buy in batches. For those who are more conservative, it is also possible to wait for the market volatility to recover before getting involved. The current market is chilly, with extremely low volatility and amplitude. Although spot positions do not have the high risk of leveraged contracts, it is still desirable to have a good entry price.
The above are the recommendations before the volatility recovers!
Due to the extreme shrinkage of volatility in the near term, it is advisable to observe more and wait for the opportunity before the volatility picks up.
There may not be daily updates until the volatility picks up, as there is no need for any analysis in a price fluctuation range of two to three hundred points. There is no point in doing meaningless analysis.
If there are any changes in the intraday prices, the helmsman will provide real-time prompts!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market is risky, and speculation should be cautious!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market is risky, and speculation should be cautious!
All analysis and judgments are probabilistic predictions. The market is risky, and speculation should be cautious!
2023.8.14
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