Source: Caixin

Editor: Zhou Ziyi

Goldman Sachs economists reported on Tuesday (August 1) that global investment in artificial intelligence (AI) is rapidly increasing, which may ultimately have a greater impact on GDP. It is estimated that global AI investment may reach around $200 billion by 2025.

Economists Joseph Briggs and Devesh Kodnani wrote in a team report that Generative AI (AIGC) has enormous economic potential and, after widespread use, it may increase global labor productivity by more than 1 percentage point annually over the next 10 years.

Briggs and Kodnani believe that in order to achieve a large-scale transformation to AI, businesses will need to make significant upfront investments in physical, digital, and human capital to acquire and implement new technologies and reshape business processes.

Driving the Economy

These two economists wrote that AI-related investments are climbing from a relatively low starting point and may take several years to have a significant impact on the economy. According to Goldman Sachs, the United States is currently positioned as the market leader in AI technology, having started relatively early in AI investment, and China, which leads in the AI field, will also play a role.

Goldman Sachs estimates that by 2025, AI investment in the United States may approach $100 billion, and globally it may reach close to $200 billion. Briggs and Kodnani wrote, "Despite the extremely rapid growth, given the very low share of AI-related investment in the US and global GDP at present, the short-term impact on GDP may be quite limited."

Although it is difficult to predict the time frame of the AI investment cycle, business surveys indicate that it may have an investment impact in the latter half of this decade (after 2025), and large companies in the information, science, and technology professional services sector will adopt AI earlier.

In the long term, if Goldman Sachs' predicted economic growth from AI is fully realized, AI-related investment may reach 2.5-4% of GDP in the United States.

Increased Interest

While it will take time for AI to improve productivity, market interest in artificial intelligence has already increased rapidly, with over 16% of companies in the Russell 3000 index mentioning this technology in earnings conference calls, compared to less than 1% in 2016.

About half of the increase in the chart above occurred after the release of ChatGPT in the fourth quarter of 2022.

The report also points out that AI investment is expected to focus on four key areas: companies training and developing AI models, companies providing infrastructure (such as data centers) to run AI applications, companies developing software to run AI applications, and end users paying for these software and cloud infrastructure services.

Goldman Sachs economists noted, "While AI investment has so far been focused on model development, Generative AI may require greater hardware and software support to expand."

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。