A Bitcoin critic and former central bank governor won the Canadian election Monday—just as prediction market users expected in recent weeks.

The governing Liberals, led by incumbent Prime Minister Mark Carney—who took over from Justin Trudeau in March—will remain in a role after beating the Conservatives, led by Bitcoin-supporting Pierre Poilievre. Speculators had bet on Carney winning in the month leading up to the election, though that wasn't always the case.

Pollsters predicted a win for the libertarian Poilievre back in January. But Carney quickly caught up as crypto-native betters and traditional pollsters put him in the lead in the run-up to the election, though given the reversal for Poilievre, Carney's win has been framed by some as a comeback victory.

In the past, former Bank of England governor Carney has criticized Bitcoin and praised the idea of a CBDC, or central bank digital currency—a type of government-controlled asset that many Bitcoiners are opposed to. Meanwhile, the pro-Bitcoin Poilievre spoke about Canada accepting the biggest cryptocurrency for payments. 

Carney's win may be due to in part to how he's handled the U.S. president's outbursts. President Trump has spoken about how Canada should be the 51st state of the U.S., angering many Canadians in the process. The Republican president also hit the North American neighbor with trade tariffs ahead of a larger-scale global trade war.

Tesla CEO and Trump advisor Elon Musk in January endorsed Poilievre, leading pollsters to favor him. At one point, on crypto prediction market Polymarket, he had an 89% chance of winning the election.



But by the time Trump had taken the reins and spoken out about taking away Canada’s sovereignty, the tables turned—and Carney became the favorite. Going into Monday, users on prediction market Myriad gave Carney an 81% chance of winning, with the likelihood gradually growing in recent weeks. (Disclosure: Myriad is owned by Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN.)

The former central banker took a tough stance on Trump, and may have reaped the rewards in the process. Poilievre also stood up to the U.S. president, but perhaps was not differentiated enough from Trump to stand apart, given some shared values with Trump’s MAGA movement.

Vote counts are still ongoing, with Carney's Liberal party still four votes away from securing a majority in the House of Commons.

Edited by Andrew Hayward

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