**Federal Reserve Chair Contender Criticizes Powell; *BTC* Weekly Gain Exceeds 12%, Yet Funding Rate Remains Negative**

Macro Interpretation: Today is the weekend, and the market is relatively stable, but there are some macro-level dynamics worth discussing, including the crisis of Federal Reserve independence, regulatory vacuum, and subtle changes in Bitcoin's technical patterns, which together construct a new narrative framework for the development of the crypto market. Behind these seemingly scattered events lies a core clue that may reshape the value logic of digital assets.

The Federal Reserve is currently facing an unprecedented trust test. Potential candidates for the next Fed chair, former governor Kevin Warsh, sharply criticized current policies during the IMF annual meeting, resonating with rumors of the Trump administration's attempts to dismiss Powell. This risk of executive intervention in central bank independence is shaking the market's fundamental confidence in the stability of the dollar system. Notably, the U.S. Treasury market has shown unusual volatility—30-year Treasury yields have fallen 30 basis points from their April peak, with a record net inflow of $19 billion in a single week, reflecting rising risk aversion and suggesting that institutional investors are restructuring their asset portfolios.

The cryptocurrency market, shrouded in regulatory fog, presents a contradictory picture. SEC Commissioner Hester Peirce used the metaphor "the floor is lava" to vividly depict the awkward position of U.S. financial institutions in crypto business. This regulatory uncertainty has led traditional institutions to adopt a "stay off the ground" strategy, while the derivatives market shows an alternative prosperity: the open interest in Bitcoin perpetual contracts has surpassed 218,000 BTC, a 15.6% increase since early March, even as the average funding rate turning negative indicates a bearish advantage, the active leveraged trading still suggests that the market is brewing a turning point.

On the technical front, Bitcoin exhibits intriguing dual signals. While the price has regained the 200-day moving average, releasing a positive signal, the daily "death cross" looms closely. Historical data shows that among the 10 similar patterns since 2009, only a few triggered bear markets, and this contradiction in technical indicators resonates with the current market sentiment's fragmentation. Notably, Bitcoin has broken through the $95,000 mark against the backdrop of continued weakness in U.S. stocks, and its correlation with traditional risk assets is undergoing a historic test.

The Bitcoin unit reform proposal put forward by core developer John Carvalho unexpectedly became a barometer for observing market sentiment. The BIP proposal advocating the abolition of the "Satoshi" unit and the restructuring of the measurement system superficially concerns technical details but actually touches on the core narrative of Bitcoin as a store of value. Opponents worry that this would dilute the concept of scarcity of 21 million coins, while supporters believe that lowering the cognitive threshold will accelerate mass adoption. The essence of this debate is the difficult balance Bitcoin must strike between its dual attributes of "digital gold" and "payment currency."

The bearish signals in the derivatives market starkly contrast with the strength of spot prices. Coinank data shows that although Bitcoin's weekly gain exceeds 12%, the futures funding rate has dropped to -0.023%, indicating a significant bearish premium structure not seen in the past six months, with contract prices trading at a 1.2% discount to spot prices, showing that professional traders are building hedging positions through derivatives. The open interest in perpetual contracts has climbed to 218,000 BTC, a 15.6% expansion from the quarterly low, marking the largest single-week increase in leveraged exposure since February 2024.

We believe this divergence between futures and spot prices exposes three layers of risk logic: the expansion of leveraged exposure and price rebound creates an "asymmetric risk exposure," which could trigger a $3.5 billion chain liquidation if price volatility exceeds 3%; additionally, the continued negative funding rate indicates the accumulation of "short squeeze" risk, with current short position concentration reaching 92% of CME's historical percentile; furthermore, the surge in market maker Delta hedging demand has led to liquidity mismatches in the spot market, with bid-ask spreads widening to a three-month peak.

For the crypto market, this structural pressure may delay the momentum needed to break through key resistance levels while creating cross-exchange arbitrage opportunities, but one must be wary of liquidity spirals triggered by black swan events in a high-leverage environment. Historical data shows that the probability of a 58% increase in volatility within 30 days following similar futures-spot divergences is as high as 79%, and the current market is entering a period of high sensitivity and fragility.

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