Original: The Round Trip
整理：Yuliya，PANews
In the era where crypto and AI intersect, the truly important stories often lie beyond the noise. To uncover these overlooked truths, PANONY has launched the English video program "The Round Trip" in collaboration with Web3.com Ventures. Co-hosted by John Scianna and Cassidy Huang, the show will guide viewers through the dramatic fluctuations of the crypto market, the absurdities and breakthroughs of AI technology, the logic of success and failure in venture capital, and those moments of market crashes worth billions of dollars. From Silicon Valley to Asia, it delves into market noise, decodes the narratives behind it, and uncovers the deeper truths beyond the headlines.
Is the Global Economy on the Edge of a Cliff?
In the past week, the dramatic escalation and rapid easing of the tariff war have become the market's focus. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has significantly lowered its global economic growth forecast for 2025 from 3.3% at the beginning of the year to 2.8%, marking the lowest level since the pandemic in 2020. This adjustment points to two core pressures: the ongoing intensification of U.S. tariff policies against China and the risk of a breakdown in global trade chains—Flexport data shows that U.S. container orders from China plummeted over 60% in three weeks.
Meanwhile, the U.S. economic policy uncertainty index has surged to a 40-year high, and gold futures prices have surpassed $3,500 per ounce for the first time. Interestingly, Bitcoin has risen 10% against the trend, reaching a high of $94,000. Is this a sign that the market has adapted to the "new normal," or is it the calm before the storm?
The "Retreat to Advance" in the U.S.-China Tariff Game
A subtle shift has emerged amid the trade war: U.S. Treasury Secretary Basit publicly acknowledged that the "stalemate on tariffs with China is unsustainable," and the White House signaled that it might lower tariffs on some goods from their current high levels to 50%-65%. President Trump also stated that high tariffs could be significantly reduced but would not be completely eliminated, while emphasizing that he would not show weakness in negotiations with China.
John believes that while it seems the U.S. is the first to ease, in fact, China began its preparations back in 2018 when Trump first imposed tariffs on Chinese products, including restricting key rare earth exports and relocating factories to Vietnam and Mexico to circumvent tariff barriers. Trump's trading strategy has also been traceable, and China has long had contingency plans in place, equipped with ample leverage to retaliate.
Bitcoin's Rise and ETF Development
This week, the crypto market experienced significant volatility. The U.S. spot Bitcoin ETF recorded its largest single-day inflow since January, with a cumulative net inflow of over $912 million this week, reflecting a notable recovery in investor sentiment, pushing Bitcoin's price above $93,000.
Additionally, Bitcoin rose 11% this week, with its market capitalization surpassing Google for the first time, making it the fifth-largest asset globally.
Ethereum, Solana, Dogecoin, and Cardano also saw gains. In the last cycle, many predicted that Ethereum's price would reach $10,000. Although Ethereum's price still hovers around $1,000-$2,000, many investors remain hopeful for this target's realization. With positive news regarding Ethereum ETFs, market confidence has been restored. Ethereum ETFs have recorded the highest net inflow since February, with over $150 million flowing in just in the past few days.
Moreover, the Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission has approved a collaboration between Huaxia Fund and OSL to launch a staking-supported Ethereum ETF, the world's first Ethereum ETF that allows direct staking rewards, not only tracking price but also providing staking income for investors. This move marks Hong Kong's acceleration of crypto financial innovation, striving to build a global crypto hub. In contrast, U.S. ETFs currently only track prices and do not offer staking rewards.
Crypto Assets as a Hedge Against Market Volatility
Another significant event this week is the $3.6 billion Bitcoin acquisition plan initiated by Brendan Lotnick. As the son of U.S. Secretary of Commerce Howard Lotnick, Brendan's plan will hold approximately 42,000 Bitcoins, making it the third-largest Bitcoin reserve institution globally. Partners include SoftBank, Tether (which contributed over $1.5 billion in Bitcoin), and Bitfinex, with an overall strategy mimicking MicroStrategy's holding model—continuously increasing Bitcoin holdings through stock and debt issuance.
The newly established company is led by Strike CEO Jack Mallers, who has actively promoted Bitcoin's adoption in El Salvador and is considered one of Bitcoin's staunchest advocates. There is a general belief that he has the potential to replicate Michael Saylor's successful model and may ultimately hold hundreds of thousands of Bitcoins.
Unlike the poor performance of the crypto market during the 2020 global financial crisis, Bitcoin has shown remarkable resilience this time. Although it briefly dipped when gold rose, it quickly rebounded. This indicates that Bitcoin is becoming a mature hedging tool, while gold will continue to play its traditional role as a safe haven.
Interestingly, a "gold vending machine" has appeared in a shopping mall in Shanghai, allowing customers to directly melt gold and transfer funds to their WeChat accounts within 30 minutes. This convenient method of gold trading is still uncommon in the U.S.
Regulatory Winds and Market Games
The U.S. SEC welcomes its new chairman, Paul Atkins, who will participate in the SEC's cryptocurrency roundtable on Friday. This meeting focuses on crypto asset custody, with subsequent meetings discussing RWA on-chain and DeFi. Atkins, who served as an SEC commissioner from 2002 to 2008, is known for supporting financial innovation. He frequently shares his views on crypto asset regulation at crypto conferences, leading to satisfaction in the crypto market regarding his appointment.
Currently, there are 72 crypto-related ETFs awaiting approval, covering various digital assets, including XRP, Litecoin, Solana, and meme coins like Dogecoin, as well as derivatives like 2X Melania.
Interestingly, Trump has extended an olive branch to Trump holders: the top 220 will be invited to a dinner at the Washington Golf Club, and the top 25 will qualify for a VIP meeting.
China's Acceleration in the AI Race
In the field of artificial intelligence, Beijing held a special marathon on April 19, where 20 humanoid robots competed alongside 12,000 human participants in a 21-kilometer challenge, with "Tian Gong Ultra" finishing in 2 hours and 40 minutes. Behind this tech showcase is China's ambition to promote the application of AI in daily life.
Additionally, at the Shanghai Auto Show on April 23, BMW announced a partnership with Chinese startup DeepSeek to apply DeepSeek's AI system in new cars entering the Chinese market later this year. This indicates that BMW is actively adapting to the demands of the Chinese market and strengthening cooperation with Chinese tech companies to maintain competitiveness.
It is noteworthy that a few years ago, DeepSeek was merely a hedge fund utilizing AI and machine learning for quantitative trading. With the rise of large language models (LLM) in 2021, they pivoted to developing AI models and have now become one of the world's significant AI companies. NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang met with the DeepSeek team during his visit to China last week to discuss plans for customizing chips for the Chinese market.
The upcoming Token 2049 conference is expected to have an optimistic atmosphere, with institutional funds flowing into the crypto market, and Bitcoin ETFs changing the overall market sentiment. Last month, Dubai also announced plans to put over $150 billion in real estate assets on-chain. This conference will set the tone for the industry's direction in the coming quarters, and more crypto projects may explore decentralized LLM and AI tools in the future.
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