Please note that VanEck has exposure to bitcoin.

Three key takeaways for mid-March – mid-April:

1. Volatility Falls, Allocation Case Builds: Bitcoin's relative volatility versus equities is testing multi-year lows, reinforcing its case as a maturing, lower-beta asset and potential hedge amid rising macro uncertainty.
2. From Treasuries to Gold to Bitcoin as Reserve Assets: As de-dollarization accelerates, central banks move from Treasuries to gold. Rising corporate adoption suggests Bitcoin may be next, offering a programmable, censorship-resistant alternative for treasuries.
3. Bitcoin Treasury Adoption Demands Better Data and Management: Most financial data still ignore Bitcoin holdings, distorting how miner solvency and risk are assessed. Active management is essential, as balance sheets shift quickly across BTC, energy, and AI.

• Chart of The Month
• Bitcoin Monthly Dashboard
• Bitcoin Miners Coverage Analysis

Chart of the Month: Bitcoin's Volatility vs. NASDAQ's Near-Historic Lows

Bitcoin Stabilizes: Relative Volatility Nears Cycle Lows vs. Nasdaq

Source: Glassnode as of 4/15/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Bitcoin's volatility relative to the NASDAQ has compressed towards levels not seen since before the 2017 bull run. Despite heightened equity market swings, with S&P 500 volatility near 3-year highs, Bitcoin's realized volatility remains subdued and is down nearly 50% from its 2022 peaks. This divergence supports a compelling narrative: Bitcoin is increasingly behaving less like a speculative tech asset and more like a macro-neutral commodity.

Low volatility and low correlation enhance Bitcoin's potential as a true portfolio hedge. As allocators navigate renewed turbulence in traditional risk assets, Bitcoin's differentiated price dynamics could justify larger strategic allocations, particularly in multi-asset portfolios.

This structural shift may also reflect Bitcoin's evolving use cases. As trade and financial infrastructure are increasingly weaponized in geopolitical conflicts, some progressive sovereigns are taking greater interest in neutral settlement rails like Bitcoin. At the same time, both public and private institutions are beginning to subsidize AI compute with Bitcoin mining activity, reinforcing its status as a strategic commodity. In this context, Bitcoin's relatively calm price action may not indicate disinterest but growing maturity.

Bitcoin Monthly Dashboard and Highlights

^* DAPP market cap as a proxy, as of April 15th, 2025.

¹ 30 day change & 365 day change are relative to the 30-day avg, not absolute.

Source: Glassnode, VanEck research as of 04/14/25. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Total Transfer Volume (USD): Bitcoin's USD-denominated transfer volume is down 30% MoM and 22% YoY from a 2024 local peak. At ~$45.6 billion per day, volume sits in the 82nd percentile of all-time activity, though still ~83% below the November 2021 high of ~$272 billion. While increased use of custodial solutions may be suppressing on-chain volume among retail users, early signs of international settlement use could drive a future rebound.

Bitcoin Futures Annualized Basis: The 30-day moving average of Bitcoin futures' annualized basis fell 27% month-over-month, indicating a continuation of last month's collapse in speculative trading. Our research has demonstrated that the best time to consider buying is when funding rates are low, as they have been over the last month.

Global Power Consumption & Mining Difficulty: Bitcoin's global power consumption increased 6% this month, while difficulty ( +4% MoM ) once again set new all-time highs. The Bitcoin network's global hashrate crossed 1 Zetahash per second (ZH/s) for the first time ever as Bitcoin miners completed fleet upgrades, a landmark in the strength of Bitcoin's global network.

Total Crypto Equities Market Cap: Crypto equities' 30-day avg. fell 8% MoM, demonstrating downside beta to Bitcoin (-7% MoM) but in line with Nasdaq, also -8% MoM.

Bitcoin Market Sentiment

Short-Term Price Action

Bitcoin's selloff continued this month, with 30-day moving average (30-DMA) prices down 7% MoM , a slower decline than last month's 12% drop . Bitcoin continued to outperform the broader crypto market, with Bitcoin dominance reaching the highest levels since February 2021 with a 30-DMA of 61% . Since March 14 ^th , Bitcoin ETPs have seen $187 million in net inflows, potentially marking an end to the record $6.4 billion of net outflows we reported last month.

This modest rebound in flows follows a turbulent February and March. DeepSeek's surprise disclosures catalyzed a broad risk-off move across AI infrastructure, data centers, crypto mining, and other risk assets like crypto more broadly. The selloff has recently been compounded by investor uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and its implications for globally exposed tech and compute-intensive industries.

Against this backdrop of risk repricing and macro uncertainty, investor attention has increasingly turned to assets outside the traditional financial system, particularly gold and Bitcoin, as potential neutral reserves.

De-Dollarization and the Rise of Neutral Reserves

Asian Trading Hours Drove Stronger Average Gold (AXU) Gains in Recent Weeks

Source: Glassnode, VanEck research as of 04/15/25. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Gold's recent performance may signal what's ahead for Bitcoin. Like gold, Bitcoin has seen widening cumulative gains during Asian trading hours, a trend that has accelerated alongside gold's breakout to new highs.

Recent IMF Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER) data show that USD FX reserves are at 30-year lows, as central banks have replaced USD exposure with gold and non-traditional currencies. Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasuries languish near 25-year lows of 33%, down from a peak of 54% in 2007, 44% in 2017. Meanwhile, the Chinese CNY's SWIFT usage is at an all-time high, growing from 1.85% in February 2019 to 4.33% in February 2025. Grim GDP trends in the UK, EU, and Japan also predict major losses for their currencies—GBP/EUR/JPY, respectively.

The Share of USD in FX Reserves as Reported by IMF's COFER Data

Source: IMF as of 04/08/25. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

While currencies like China's CNY, India's INR, and Turkey's TRY may absorb some demand displaced by weakening Western FX, neutral assets like gold and Bitcoin may increasingly claim a larger share of global reserves. White House Chief Economist Steve Miran stated earlier in April, “…the reserve function of the dollar has caused persistent currency distortions and contributed, along with other countries' unfair barriers to trade, to unsustainable trade deficits.” In context with Trump's broader pro-crypto initiatives, we believe the U.S. has more to gain from continued performance from Gold and Bitcoin than from the continued adoption of other nations' currencies.

As these reserve allocation shifts accelerate, Bitcoin may increasingly be seen by some as “digital gold” with settlement utility, offering neutral value storage, censorship resistance, and programmable transferability. That positions it as a credible alternative reserve asset, especially in regions where capital controls or geopolitical tensions reduce trust in traditional FX rails. For example, a small but growing part of Russia's oil trade has reportedly been conducted via Bitcoin, Ether, and stablecoins, smoothing the conversion of Chinese yuan and Indian rupees to Russian roubles while circumventing Western sanctions. However, such adoption trends are not steady. Just days after Russia's majority state-owned energy corporation Gazprom disclosed its exit from the country, Bolivia's state-owned YPFB reversed its March 2025 decree to use cryptocurrency to pay for energy imports amid fuel and foreign reserve shortages.

Corporate Treasuries Surpass ETPs as the New Marginal Buyer in 2025

Source: BitcoinTreasuries, VanEck research as of 04/03/25. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
^* Estimates include only U.S., China, U.K., North Korea, Bhutan, El Salvador, & Germany

Recent changes in Bitcoin's holder base lend credence to Bitcoin's status as a treasury asset. While the newly launched Bitcoin ETPs unlocked significant demand (over 200,000 BTC!) in just the first few months after launching in early 2024, net flows have slowed more recently amid market volatility. Meanwhile, corporations have more than doubled the rate of their Bitcoin purchases. Of these three major cohorts, only governments have decreased their aggregate Bitcoin holdings over the past year, driven primarily by Germany's sale of all ~ 50,000 of its seized Bitcoin and the U.S.'s cumulative liquidation of ~ 27,000 BTC .

The accelerating pace of corporate Bitcoin adoption signals that forward-looking governments may increasingly consider its potential to strengthen reserves and offset long-term debt burdens. At the same time, we urge the need for measured, data-driven approaches to adopting Bitcoin as a reserve asset.

Bitcoin Miners Coverage Analysis

As we gear up to become more active equity investors in the space , we have been analyzing Bitcoin miners' use of Bitcoin in their corporate treasuries to assess their liquidity and solvency risks. Below is one case study for how BTC-backed balance sheets might behave under market stress.

^* Assumes de minimis (zero) BTC held based on historical patterns.

¹ ‘BTC Held' includes BTBT's ‘BTC equivalent' ETH holdings as of January 31, 2025; BTC holdings are 769.

Sources: Company Filings as of 4/22/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

We begin with a simple recap of each miners' liquid assets: the combination of BTC (and ETH, in BTBT's case) and cash. BTC held is as of the latest available monthly production report: March 31st figures for all BTC-holding miners except BTBT, which last reported in January. We note that IREN and WULF have typically sold all BTC mined in recent quarters, leading to our assumption that they hold no BTC, though they may retain negligible amounts.

Miners like MARA ($4.25B ), CLSK ($1.06B ), and RIOT ($1.72B ) continue to hold the largest BTC treasuries, highlighting their dominant positions as “HOLDers” exposed to BTC—though RIOT has recently left MARA and CLSK behind as the last two “pure play” miners by initiating AI/HPC feasibility studies of 600 MW at its Corsicana site in Q1.

As a percentage of their cash + BTC treasuries, however, HIVE ( 95%) and CIFR (94%) show even greater exposure to BTC than MARA (92%), RIOT ( 86%), and CLSK (79%). Miners with the greatest emphasis on AI/HPC pivots, such as IREN (0%), WULF (0%), and CORZ (9%), show the least BTC treasury exposure, likely due to steep capex costs. Interestingly, we note that despite reporting zero BTC holdings in its Q3 earnings and only 256 BTC as of Dec 31 ^st 2024, a review of its 2025 monthly production reports (which no longer cite any Bitcoin sold) and onchain analytics suggests that CORZ has held almost all its self-mined Bitcoin this year.

Debt, Bitcoin & Market Caps (000's)

Source: Company Filings, Google Finance as of 4/22/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

Next, we assessed each company's debt loads based on their most recent earnings reports. Total debt includes short-term debt, long-term borrowings, finance leases, and convertible notes. Net debt is each company's combined cash plus BTC treasury minus total debt.

Importantly, we now present Net Debt both excluding and including BTC , to reflect how traditional data providers like Bloomberg often ignore BTC holdings , which can lead to significantly distorted perceptions of miners' financial health. We believe this is because Bitcoin (a commodity) technically does not fall under “marketable securities”, a component often included alongside cash & cash equivalents. We believe this “TradFi” oversight reflects the nascency of corporate Bitcoin treasuries and suggests Wall Street's potential underestimation of companies with crypto-heavy balance sheets.

For example, MARA appears to have ~$2.1B in net debt excluding BTC, a sizable load. But once BTC holdings are accounted for, MARA's net debt flips to –$2.2B , signaling an almost equal and opposite net “cash” position (“cash” being used liberally to include the market value of Bitcoin). This stark contrast illustrates the extent to which miners' BTC holdings act as de facto reserves; a nuance increasingly relevant in the context of Bitcoin's emergence as a balance sheet asset.

This accounting divergence also highlights how early we are in the mainstream recognition of BTC as a strategic treasury asset. Miners like CLSK, RIOT, HUT, and BTBT all flip from modest net debt positions to net cash once BTC is considered! Conversely, WULF and CORZ remain net debtors even after accounting for BTC, reflecting balance sheet structures more aligned with traditional data center financing, where capital markets are currently more comfortable underwriting AI and HPC infrastructure than Bitcoin mining.

Coverage & Leverage Ratios

Source: Company Filings as of 4/22/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Not intended as a recommendation to buy or sell any securities named herein.

¹ BTDR is not adjusted for the dilution of one of their in-the-money converts.

This table offers a direct view of each miner's financial resilience, presenting a traditional debt coverage ratio (with BTC included) and Net Debt to Equity ratios, both with and without Bitcoin included. Together, these metrics illustrate how Bitcoin holdings shape leverage and solvency across the sector.

The first column measures how fully a miner's liquid assets could cover its outstanding debt. Ratios above 100% indicate full coverage, with additional flexibility to fund operations or expansion. Miners like HIVE (820%) , BITF (690%) , RIOT (342%) , and HUT (309%) exhibit exceptionally strong coverage of debt, indicating that liquid assets far exceed debt obligations. These figures reflect healthy net cash positions relative to book value, a sign of financial flexibility and reduced reliance on capital markets. With very little debt, IREN's coverage (25,819%) is a clear outlier. WULF ( 56%) & CORZ ( 83%) once again stand out, demonstrating more stretched resources as they invest in AI/HPC pivots and tap the credit markets.

The next two columns— Net Debt / Equity , both excluding and including BTC—provide a complementary lens, showing how levered each company is relative to shareholder capital, and how much that picture shifts when Bitcoin is treated as a treasury asset. For instance, MARA flips from 50% to –53% , CLSK from 18% to –34% , and BTDR from –69% to –106% —demonstrating how deeply embedded BTC is in their financial flexibility. By contrast, WULF ( 87%) remains highly levered regardless of BTC adjustments due to its lack of crypto reserves.

CORZ is a unique case: it has significant cash and growing Bitcoin holdings, but its equity value remains negative due to substantial debt, flipping its ratio negative. To avoid misinterpretation, we've removed its Net Debt / Equity metrics from the table. While its debt coverage ratio ( 83%) is respectable, it reflects a tightly managed balance sheet. That said, CORZ is also the only miner with a guaranteed 12-year , $8.7 billion AI hosting contract backed by CoreWeave. With all related capital expenditures funded by CoreWeave and revenue denominated in long-term USD contracts, CORZ may be uniquely positioned to de-lever over time and transform its balance sheet. This stands in contrast to WULF, which also remains levered but lacks a comparable contractual revenue foundation. In this context, CORZ's financial structure may reflect strategic positioning rather than short-term stress.

Source: VanEck Research as of 4/14/2025. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.

The final stress test we apply is the BTC Insolvency Price : the Bitcoin price at which a miner's combined BTC and cash reserves would just cover its total debt. This metric highlights the downside threshold at which a miner's current treasury no longer offers full protection from debt exposure.

We include only miners with positive net debt (excluding BTC) and for whom BTC comprises more than 50% of liquid assets ; in other words, companies whose solvency meaningfully depends on BTC's market value. This metric offers a simple, BTC-denominated lens on balance sheet risk: how far could Bitcoin fall before a miner might need to raise capital, restructure, or sell assets?

Among this group, MARA , CIFR , and CLSK show relatively high insolvency thresholds of ~$43K , ~37K , and ~$31K , respectively, reflecting large, debt-offset BTC holdings. They also have similar solvency ratios ((cash + BTC) / total debt) around 200%. However, this does not imply equal risk in a BTC drawdown. Here's why:

• Absolute Debt Matters:
  MARA has ~$2.5 billion in total debt, while CLSK's debt is ~$650 million , and CIFR's is just $43 million . Even if their relative coverage is the same, MARA must navigate a far larger liability stack, meaning it faces greater pressure to refinance, dilute, or restructure if Bitcoin declines.
• Cost to Mine = Operating Resilience:
  CLSK's lower breakeven cost per BTC gives it a distinct advantage during downturns. It can remain profitable at lower BTC prices, potentially self-funding operations even in bear markets. This self-reliance reduces the likelihood of cash burn or emergency capital raises. MARA, by contrast, could be more exposed to dilution risk if market conditions deteriorate.

HUT and RIOT screen stronger, with thresholds of ~$24K and ~$16K , respectively. Despite its liquid assets being 95% BTC , HIVE stands out with a notably low insolvency price of just ~$7K , implying robust balance sheet strength relative to its modest debt load.

Conclusion

This analysis highlights a growing disconnect. While Bitcoin is too volatile to be treated exactly like cash, ignoring it entirely, as many data providers still do, is equally flawed. Macro forces like diminishing USD FX reserves, persistent fiat inflation, and uncontrolled national deficits are driving corporations and sovereign nations into hard assets like gold and Bitcoin. Due to Bitcoin's superior returns and transactability, we think corporations will continue to front-run nations' accelerating Bitcoin adoption, underscoring the need for improved Bitcoin balance sheet data and analytics.

Because this trend is still emerging and is unfolding alongside rapid changes in FX, energy, and AI infrastructure, balance sheets can shift quickly. In our view, this underscores the importance of active management, guided by sector-specific expertise spanning energy, crypto, AI, and more, to reassess fundamentals as both market conditions and corporate strategies evolve.

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