To be honest, the difficulty of today's homework has significantly increased. If Bitcoin and the US stock market were to move in tandem, this assignment would be easier to write, but indeed, $BTC performed quite well today, even showing signs of a phase of independent movement. Although it's uncertain how long this will last, it has provided some emotional support for BTC and cryptocurrency investors.

The US stock market was not doing well before Trump criticized Powell today. After all, since early this morning, there have been numerous negative signals regarding the economy. By the time the US stock market opened, Trump's post further dampened investor sentiment, cooling it from head to toe. One is a political leader, and the other is an economic leader; Trump's direct attack on Powell has increased market uncertainty.

What investors are worried about is uncertainty. Even Trump himself mentioned today that if the Federal Reserve does not cut interest rates, it could lead the US economy into a recession caused by the "trade war." It's quite bold of him to blame Powell, considering who initiated the trade war.

If we could wait for the US economy to stabilize a bit more, at least until after the first quarter GDP, or gradually consider tariff issues, it wouldn't create such a risk of the market continuously declining. Instead, the current tariffs and the situation before Trump took office have not changed at all, except for China. Of course, I also discussed with a friend today that this could be a compliance test by Trump, to filter out who the obedient partners are and who the adversaries are, which might help with Trump's upcoming policies.

Maybe, but from the current perspective, even without tariff policies, there are already expectations of a downturn in the US economy, let alone what will happen after tariffs.

As for Bitcoin, although we have always viewed BTC's support structurally as very solid, it is difficult for BTC to achieve a completely independent market movement. In the absence of systemic negative factors, it might hold up due to the structure of the chips, but if a recession or recession expectations truly emerge, BTC will likely still be highly correlated with the US stock market.

As of just before the US stock market is about to close, the decline in the stock market has slightly contracted, which has driven BTC's price back above $87,000. BTC's stability remains strong, but the performance of US Treasury bonds is not good; the 10-year Treasury is approaching 4.5%, and the 20-year and 30-year Treasuries are getting closer to 5%. The sentiment in the risk market is already quite poor, and investors are hesitant to continue chasing BTC; it’s better to wait and see for now.

However, from the support data, the range of $81,500 to $86,500 is still a very good bottoming point, especially since the single price peak of $84,500 has not been broken as the price rises. However, there are indeed signs that some short-term investors are exiting, while investors in the range of $93,000 to $98,000 remain very stable, seemingly unaffected by the fluctuations.

Let’s observe for another day before making any decisions.

Data has been updated, address: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1E9awSVwrVOxKOiaMdYT5YZvfveeFd9ENU-iO6dVcGj0/edit?usp=sharing

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