I. Event Trigger: How Tariff Policies "Strangle" the Global Market

1. Policy Shock and Market Plunge

- U.S. Stock Market Crash: After Trump announced "reciprocal tariffs" on April 3, the three major U.S. stock indices collectively plummeted, with the Dow Jones falling 5.5% in a single day, the S&P 500 down 5.97%, and the market value of the "seven sisters" tech stocks evaporating over $505 billion;

- A-shares Follow Suit: On April 7, the three major A-share indices opened down over 4%, with the ChiNext index dropping 6.77%, spreading panic in the market;

- Cryptocurrency Heavy Losses: Bitcoin fell below $83,000, Ethereum plummeted 10%, and MEME coins on the BSC chain generally halved in value;

2. Global Asset Indiscriminate Decline

- Commodity Market: WTI crude oil fell below $60 per barrel, hitting a new low since 2021; the safe-haven property of gold briefly failed, with spot gold once dropping below $3,000;

- Exchange Rate Fluctuations: The yen rose 1% due to safe-haven demand, while non-U.S. currencies like the Australian dollar and euro collectively depreciated;

II. Deep Logic: Trade War 2.0 and Market Pricing Reconstruction

1. Historical Repetition? The Ghost of the Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act

- The 1930 Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act triggered a global trade war, leading to the Great Depression. Now, Trump's "reciprocal tariffs" cover all trading partners, with rates as high as 49%, significantly increasing the risk of global supply chain disruptions;

- Inflation Spiral Threat: The U.S. relies on imports for 97% of its clothing and footwear, with UBS estimating that consumer goods prices could rise by 10%-12%, hitting low-income families the hardest;

2. The "Triple Decoupling" of U.S.-China Competition

- Trade-Technology-Finance Progressive Pressure: Everbright Securities points out that tariffs are just the beginning, with subsequent technology blockades (such as AI chip export restrictions) and financial sanctions (delisting of Chinese concept stocks) likely to follow;

- China's Response Logic: Huatai Securities analyzes that China has a sufficient policy toolbox, with reserve requirement ratio cuts, consumption stimulation, and infrastructure investment potentially becoming the main countermeasures, enhancing the strategic position of domestic demand;

3. The "De-risking Paradox" of Cryptocurrency

- Bitcoin's correlation with traditional risk assets (like the Nasdaq) has risen to 0.5, losing its "digital gold" halo;

- Leverage Liquidation Chain Reaction: High-leverage positions (like 20x) in MEME coins on the BSC chain faced mass liquidations after a 5% price fluctuation, exacerbating sell-offs;

III. Trend Prediction: Structural Opportunities in the Storm

1. Short-term Market Path

- Key Nodes: Tariffs officially take effect on April 9, and China's countermeasures are expected on April 10. If negotiations do not restart, U.S. stocks may drop another 5%-10%;

- Cryptocurrency Rebound Opportunity: If BTC stabilizes above $80,000, MEME coins may rebound due to community enthusiasm, but caution is needed against regulatory crackdowns (like the Trump family token incident);

2. Mid to Long-term Asset Allocation Logic

- Safe-haven Assets: Gold (target $3,100), yen, and bond ETFs (like TLT) remain safe havens for funds;

- Counter-cyclical Tracks:

Consumption and Infrastructure: Under the push of China's domestic demand policies, leading companies in home appliances and building materials (like Midea, Conch Cement) may benefit;

Technological Independence: Domestic chips (SMIC), AI large models (Baidu Wenxin) receiving policy support, with potential for valuation recovery;

- Cryptocurrency Value Restructuring:

RWA Track: Tokenized U.S. Treasuries (like Ondo Finance) and collateralized lending (Maple Finance) offering annual returns over 4%, attracting institutional investments like Grayscale;

Layer 2 Technology Dividend: Ethereum's Pectra upgrade may activate staking demand, with tokens like ARB and OP expected to rise 50% in the medium term;

IV. Investor Strategy: Defense, Hedging, and Left-side Layout

1. Defensive Operations

- Reduce High-volatility Assets: Liquidate MEME coins and tech stocks, retaining 20%-30% in cash or stablecoins (USDC, DAI);

- Options Protection: Buy BTC put options (strike price $75,000) and Nasdaq ETF put options (strike price 10% below current price);

2. Hedging and Arbitrage

- Cross-market Arbitrage: Long gold/short oil (historical volatility spread widening to 30%), long yen/short Australian dollar;

- A/H Share Premium Convergence: Increase holdings in undervalued Hong Kong blue chips (like Tencent, Meituan), betting on fund inflows;

3. Left-side Layout Opportunities

- Bitcoin Dollar-Cost Averaging: Gradually buy in the $76,000-$82,000 range, with a long-term target of $180,000 (Galaxy prediction);

- Policy Beneficiary Stocks: Sectors like environmental protection (carbon neutrality subsidies) and military industry (geopolitical tensions) may strengthen against the trend;

Conclusion: Finding Certainty Amid Uncertainty

The tariff storm of 2025 is both a painful moment for globalization and an opportunity for asset revaluation. History proves that trade protectionism will ultimately backfire, while technological revolution and policy wisdom are key to breaking the deadlock. Investors need to abandon the fantasy of "quick wins," capturing structural dividends in defense, and patiently waiting for dawn in the eye of the storm.

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