Arthur Hayes, co-founder and former CEO of crypto exchange Bitmex, and now head of early-stage investment fund Maelstrom, says bitcoin is on track to reach $250,000 by the end of 2025. In a provocative essay published March 31, Hayes argues that the U.S. Federal Reserve has quietly pivoted toward renewed quantitative easing (QE) to help finance massive government deficits, creating a powerful tailwind for crypto.

“The technology works, and there aren’t any major changes, good or bad, occurring in the near future. Therefore, bitcoin trades solely based on the market expectation for the future supply of fiat,” he detailed, adding:

If my analysis of the Fed’s major pivot from QT to QE for treasuries is correct, then bitcoin hit a local low of $76,500 last month, and now we begin the ascent to $250,000 by year-end.

“Of course, this is not an exact science, but using the gold example, if I had to place a bet on whether I thought bitcoin would hit $76,500 or $110,000 first, I would bet on the latter,” the former Bitmex executive noted. Hayes was recently pardoned by President Donald Trump, along with other Bitmex co-founders, after pleading guilty to violating anti-money laundering laws.

In the essay, Hayes discussed a dramatized encounter between Fed Chair Jerome Powell and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, in which Bessent performs an aggressive display meant to humiliate Powell into submission. At the heart of this allegory, Hayes introduces the acronym “BBC”—short for “Big Bessent Cock”—as a metaphor for Bessent’s dominance and Powell’s loss of authority.

The term underscores Hayes’ argument that fiscal dominance has returned: the central bank now acts in service of financing the federal government’s spending agenda, regardless of inflation targets or monetary orthodoxy. “The pace of capital deployment will quicken or slacken depending on the accuracy of my predictions,” he stated, emphasizing:

I still believe bitcoin can hit $250,000 by year-end because now that the BBC has put Powell in his place, the Fed will flood the market with dollars.

Hayes cited policy signals to support his thesis, including comments from Powell during the March 19 Federal Open Market Committee press conference. The Federal Reserve chairman indicated the Fed may let mortgage-backed securities roll off its balance sheet while maintaining its overall size, which Hayes interprets as a shift toward Treasury-focused quantitative easing and a pause in quantitative tightening.

Hayes also referenced a recent statement made by Bessent, suggesting that suspending the supplementary leverage ratio requirement could lower Treasury bill yields by 30 to 70 basis points. He argues such a move would enable commercial banks to purchase more government debt, increasing liquidity.

免责声明：本文章仅代表作者个人观点，不代表本平台的立场和观点。本文章仅供信息分享，不构成对任何人的任何投资建议。用户与作者之间的任何争议，与本平台无关。如网页中刊载的文章或图片涉及侵权，请提供相关的权利证明和身份证明发送邮件到support@aicoin.com，本平台相关工作人员将会进行核查。