On the last day of March, the expectations for the first quarter did not align with what was imagined. The biggest miscalculation was the misjudgment of tariffs, which led to many planned actions not being taken, resulting in an awkward situation. However, there remains a sense of reverence for the market as the difficulties increase starting in April; today is a good example of this.

At six in the morning, I received information that U.S. stock index futures opened lower, and the trend continued to decline until the U.S. market opened. American investors chose to hedge in advance against the inflation rise caused by tariffs and the probability of economic recession. Bitcoin was also supposed to follow this path, nearly dropping below $81,000 before 6 PM Beijing time. However, around 6 PM, a piece of news emerged that the Trump family officially entered the $BTC mining sector, which lifted market sentiment somewhat.

The price of BTC also rose accordingly. After all, BTC is still a somewhat niche market. The niche aspect is not about market capitalization but about liquidity. When long-term holders start accumulating again, the sentiment of short-term investors can change the price trend of BTC. This is also why I believe the difficulty will increase starting in April.

Currently, it is an event-driven market, and the events in the U.S. stock market differ significantly from those in the cryptocurrency market. However, the overall direction is consistent. More importantly, whether the driving events will lead to changes in liquidity is crucial. If they do, it could mean a reversal; if not, it may still just be a rebound.

The Trump family's mining event cannot bring about a reversal of events; at most, it is a rebound. What is more important is to observe the tariff policies after April 3rd Beijing time—whether they will be a stick raised or a hammer brought down. Although the White House has released a lot of news, if it were the Democrats, I might believe it. But now, it is not only the Republicans but also the fickle Trump. It is hard to say whether the information released by the White House will actually happen.

The challenges in April are not limited to tariffs. Tariffs affect inflation, inflation affects interest rate cuts, and the expectations for interest rate cuts are not immediate. Therefore, the impact of tariffs will not occur right away; it is more about the emotional expectations of investors. However, the GDP data released in the middle of the month will immediately affect investor sentiment. Many analysis institutions in the U.S. have already begun to raise the probability of an economic recession in 2025. The difficulty in this market is still increasing.

Looking back at Bitcoin's own data, although the price is volatile, it has not triggered significant attention from investors. The turnover is still mainly driven by short-term investors, while long-term investors remain indifferent. However, there has not yet been any actual negative news for the market, and most investors are still in a wait-and-see mode.

For now, investors in the $93,000 to $98,000 range have not significantly exited the market, so the pressure on the current price is not great. The bottoming process at $83,000 is still ongoing. Before the U.S. market closed, both the Nasdaq and S&P had rebounded significantly and returned to normal, while Bitcoin also recovered to the price level before the Trump mining news.

It is still important to pay attention to the relationship between rebounds and reversals.

This post is sponsored by @ApeXProtocolCN | Dex With ApeX

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