Author: 1912212.eth, Foresight News
On March 31, Bitcoin's daily chart has seen four consecutive declines, sliding from $87,000 to $81,000. Ethereum appears even worse, with its daily chart showing seven consecutive declines, dropping from around $2,100 to $1,800. Solana is hovering around $130, while many altcoins are experiencing more losses than gains. According to CoinMarketCap data, the fear index is at 24, indicating extreme fear.
According to coinglass data, the total liquidation across the network in the past 24 hours amounted to $213 million, with long positions liquidated totaling $163 million. The largest liquidation occurred on Binance's ETH/USDT, valued at $13.3084 million.
Since reaching a peak last December, the market has seen three consecutive months of decline, leading to a gloomy sentiment among retail investors. Will the market improve in the future?
Bitcoin Spot ETF Sees 10 Days of Net Inflows, but the Pace Slows
Recently, Bitcoin spot ETF data has shown impressive performance, with net inflows exceeding net outflows for 10 consecutive days since March 14, and net inflows surpassing $100 million on March 17, 18, and 20. However, starting March 21, net inflows have not exceeded $100 million again. On March 28, the spot ETF saw a net outflow of $93 million, ending the 10-day streak of net inflows.
In contrast, Ethereum's spot ETF performance appears very pessimistic, with only 2 days of net inflows this month, while the rest have seen net outflows. Its price performance is also reflective of this. Ethereum's sluggish performance has significantly dragged down many altcoins, especially in sectors like L2 and re-staking.
Market Risk Aversion Ahead of April 2 U.S. Tariff Policy
On March 31, the Japanese stock market fell by 4%, and South Korea's stock index saw a decline of 2.3%, with U.S. futures also experiencing a drop in early trading. As the U.S. tariff policy is set to be revealed on April 2, market uncertainty is expected to reach new heights. According to CCTV news on Saturday, it was reported that U.S. President Trump plans to announce new tariffs in the coming days. He expressed a somewhat open attitude towards reaching tariff agreements with other countries but hinted that any agreements would be made after the April 2 tariff measures take effect.
Citigroup's latest report summarizes three main scenarios and their corresponding market impacts: first, merely announcing reciprocal tariffs, which would result in a limited market reaction; second, reciprocal tariffs plus value-added tax (VAT), which could cause the dollar index to rise by 50-100 basis points and lead to a decline in global stock markets; third, including industry-specific tariffs in addition to reciprocal tariffs and VAT, which could provoke a more severe market reaction.
After the S&P 500 faced its worst quarterly start since 2020, analysts have warned that the potential for further declines outweighs the chances of an increase. Some analysts point out that future tariffs and retaliatory actions are key, stating that the market reaction on "April 2" will largely depend on the timing of the tariffs, especially industry tariffs and the speed of other countries' responses to reciprocal tariffs.
The cryptocurrency market, led by Bitcoin, is becoming increasingly correlated with U.S. stock performance. As a risk asset, it will also face significant volatility around the policy announcement. Additionally, on the evening of April 4, the U.S. will release unemployment rates and non-farm payroll data, followed by a keynote speech from Powell. With a flurry of data and policies on the horizon, some market investors are choosing to sit on the sidelines.
Future Market Trends
Bloomberg Intelligence commodity strategist Mike McGlone suggests that the market should now focus on ETH price trends, as there is a clear connection between ETH and the prices of other risk assets. If stocks in the S&P 500 continue to weaken, ETH may further decline. McGlone also believes that a return to the $2,000 level for ETH could signal direction for risk assets; however, if Bitcoin fails to stabilize its price growth, it may exacerbate losses for altcoins, particularly leading altcoins, potentially causing ETH to drop to the $1,000 level later this year.
David Duong, head of strategy research at Coinbase, stated that the market reaction on April 2 will likely be relatively calm, but the warning is that no one is prepared for this, mainly due to the numerous variables that need to be tracked and the many paths to consider. This presents some extreme possibilities, especially regarding the performance of specific industries and the broader economic impact. However, as earnings season quickly becomes the next major focus, the market will not be ready to take significant positions before mid-April.
Paoul, founder of Real Vision, shared a chart of global liquidity M2 alongside Bitcoin price trends, indicating that the market is in a bottom range.
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